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Incubation periods for paediatric AIDS patients

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TLDR
It is concluded that incubation periods are longer than previously reported; there is a distinct knee in the incubation period distribution at seven months which suggests two risk populations; and that there is an increase in incidence which is consistent with exponential growth.
Abstract
A recent seroprevalence study of newborns indicates that one in 62 children born in New York City has antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)1. The distribution of incubation periods for paediatric patients is needed to estimate future AIDS case loads from these seroprevalence data. Current estimates of incubation periods for paediatric patients are based on limited data2–5. We use parametric5,6 and non-parametric7,8 methods to analyse incubation periods for 215 paediatric patients with AIDS whose only known route of infection is maternal. We conclude that incubation periods are longer than previously reported9; that there is a distinct knee in the incubation period distribution at seven months which suggests two risk populations; and that there is an increase in incidence which is consistent with exponential growth.

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Citations
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1993 Revised Classification System for HIV Infection and Expanded Surveillance Case Definition for AIDS Among Adolescents and Adults

TL;DR: The classification system for HIV infection is revised to emphasize the clinical importance of the CD4+ T-lymphocyte count in the categorization of HIV-related clinical conditions and the AIDS surveillance case definition is expanded.
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Virus-specific CD8+ cytotoxic T-lymphocyte activity associated with control of viremia in primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

TL;DR: HIV-1-specific CTL activity is a major component of the host immune response associated with the control of virus replication following primary HIV-1 infection and have important implications for the design of antiviral vaccines.
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The dynamics of CD4 + T-cell depletion in HIV disease

TL;DR: The size and composition of the CD4+ T-cell population is regulated by balanced proliferation of progenitor cells and death of mature progeny, but after infection with the human immunodeficiency virus, this homeostasis is often disturbed and CD4- T cells are instead depleted.
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The spread of HIV-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of AIDS

TL;DR: Current data reveal substantial variations in the degree of spread between and in countries, but new analyses support earlier predictions that in the worst-afflicted areas AIDS is likely to change population growth rates from positive to negative values in a few decades.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion

TL;DR: New analysis of the number of reported cases of AIDS in a defined population to the proportion of that population infected with the virus as a specified time point reveals age-related differences in the mean and median incubation period.
Journal ArticleDOI

Nonparametric analysis of truncated survival data, with application to AIDS

TL;DR: Nonparametric methods for estimating and comparing the identifiable aspects of the induction distributions of several groups are developed for the induction period between infection with the AIDS virus and the onset of clinical AIDS.
Journal ArticleDOI

A model-based approach for estimating the mean incubation period of transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

TL;DR: The mean incubation period for transfusion-associated AIDS was estimated to be 4.5 years, with the 90% confidence interval ranging from 2.6 to 14.2 years, which has important consequences for infected individuals and implications for public health intervention and prevention policy.
Journal Article

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in children: report of the Centers for Disease Control National Surveillance, 1982 to 1985.

TL;DR: The prognosis for children with AIDS is poor and infants less than 1 year of age have the shortest survival time following diagnosis, and the estimated incubation period for AIDS in children has increased each surveillance year, with the longest incubation exceeding 7 years.
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Which disease has the highest incubation period?

We conclude that incubation periods are longer than previously reported9; that there is a distinct knee in the incubation period distribution at seven months which suggests two risk populations; and that there is an increase in incidence which is consistent with exponential growth.