More complex distribution models or more representative data
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In this article, the results of the best comparative study of different modeling techniques, which used pseudo-absence data selected at random, were analyzed and it was shown that good model predictions depend most critically on better biological data.Abstract:
Distribution models for species are increasingly used to summarize species’ geography in conservation analyses. These models use increasingly sophisticated modeling techniques, but often lack detailed examination of the quality of the biological occurrence data on which they are based. I analyze the results of the best comparative study of the performance of different modeling techniques, which used pseudo-absence data selected at random. I provide an example of variation in model accuracy depending on the type of absence information used, showing that good model predictions depend most critically on better biological data.read more
Citations
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Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.
Alberto Jiménez-Valverde,Alberto Jiménez-Valverde,Andrew Townsend Peterson,Jorge Soberón,J. M. Overton,Pedro Aragón,Jorge M. Lobo +6 more
TL;DR: This work highlights that, in the case of invasive species, distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling
TL;DR: This work discusses three important topics that must be kept in mind when modelling species distributions, namely the distinction between potential and realized distribution, the effect of the relative occurrence area of the species on the results of the evaluation of model performance, and the general inaccuracy of the predictions of the realized distribution provided by species distribution modelling methods.
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Cross-validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model.
TL;DR: P pairwise distance sampling removed spatial sorting bias, yielding null models with an AUC close to 0.5, such that AUC was the same as null model calibrated AUC (cAUC), which strongly decreased AUC values and changed the ranking among species.
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The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution: preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined how changes in the extent of the study region (ignored or under-appreciated in most studies) affect models of two rodents, Nephelomys caracolus and Nephelmys meridensis.
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Accounting for uncertainty when mapping species distributions: The need for maps of ignorance
Duccio Rocchini,Joaquín Hortal,Szabolcs Lengyel,Jorge M. Lobo,Alberto Jiménez-Valverde,Carlo Ricotta,Giovanni Bacaro,Alessandro Chiarucci +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the main sources of uncertainty are reviewed and a code of good practices is proposed to minimize their effects. But the authors do not consider the effect of the quality and bias of raw distributional data, the process of map building and the dynamic nature of species distributions themselves.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more
TL;DR: This work compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date and found that presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
TL;DR: A review of predictive habitat distribution modeling is presented, which shows that a wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sources, Sinks, and Population Regulation
TL;DR: If the surplus population of the source is large and the per capita deficit in the sink is small, only a small fraction of the total population will occur in areas where local reproduction is sufficient to compensate for local mortality, and the realized niche may be larger than the fundamental niche.
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Estimating Terrestrial Biodiversity through Extrapolation
TL;DR: The importance of using 'reference' sites to assess the true richness and composition of species assemblages, to measure ecologically significant ratios between unrelated taxa, toMeasure taxon/sub-taxon (hierarchical) ratios, and to 'calibrate' standardized sampling methods is discussed.
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AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
TL;DR: The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, known as the AUC, is currently considered to be the standard method to assess the accuracy of predictive distribution models as discussed by the authors.
Related Papers (5)
Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more