On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09
TLDR
In this article, a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models is discussed, and a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP.Abstract:
Weather data are used extensively by building scientists and engineers to study the performance of their designs, help compare design alternatives and ensure compliance with building regulations. Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practising engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the commissioning client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the publication of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to 2080 and for various probabilistic projections of climate change by the use of a weather generator. Here, we discuss a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models. In addition, a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP...read more
Citations
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Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends
Kevin Anderson,Alice Bows +1 more
TL;DR: It is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), and the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppsmv CO2e.
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London's urban heat island: Impact on current and future energy consumption in office buildings
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented the results of a computational study on the energy consumption and related CO2 emissions for heating and cooling of an office building within the Urban Heat Island of London, currently and in the future.
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A review of uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment
Wei Tian,Yeonsook Heo,Pieter de Wilde,Zhanyong Li,Da Yan,Cheolsoo Park,Xiaohang Feng,Godfried Augenbroe +7 more
TL;DR: The data sources of uncertainty in building performance analysis are described to provide a firm foundation for specifying variations of uncertainty factors affecting building energy, and several applications of uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment are discussed.
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Transforming existing weather data for worldwide locations to enable energy and building performance simulation under future climates
TL;DR: In this paper, an approach is presented for "morphing" existing EnergyPlus/ESP-r Weather (EPW) data with UK Met Office Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) predictions for a "medium-high" emissions scenario (A2).
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Designing net-zero energy buildings for the future climate, not for the past
Amélie Robert,Michaël Kummert +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the use of the downscaling method known as "morphing" to generate weather data files and assessed the impact of using these weather files on the energy performance of an actual NZEB.
References
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Improved goodness-of-fit tests
J. M. Finkelstein,R. E. Schafer +1 more
TL;DR: Two statistics for testing goodness of fit for small sample sizes are provided in this article, which are closely related to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and are computationally equivalent.
UK Climate Projections science report: Projections of future daily climate for the UK from the Weather Generator
TL;DR: In this article, the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator (WG) is introduced and the needs and principles and how it can be used to assess changes in extremes at spatial and temporal scales finer than the UKCP09 probability distribution functions (PDFs).
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Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an anomaly map of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula).