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Predicting small-area health-related behaviour: a comparison of smoking and drinking indicators

Liz Twigg, +2 more
- 01 Apr 2000 - 
- Vol. 50, Iss: 7, pp 1109-1120
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The paper concludes that the method is better at estimating smoking than drinking but that it offers a feasible, cheap and more informative alternative to the survey approach to the generation of information on smoking and drinking behaviour.
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From medical to health geography: novelty, place and theory after a decade of change

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Toward the next generation of research into small area effects on health: a synthesis of multilevel investigations published since July 1998

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Smoking and deprivation: are there neighbourhood effects?

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Areas of disadvantage: a systematic review of effects of area-level socioeconomic status on substance use outcomes.

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References
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Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods

TL;DR: The Logic of Hierarchical Linear Models (LMLM) as discussed by the authors is a general framework for estimating and hypothesis testing for hierarchical linear models, and it has been used in many applications.
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Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods.

TL;DR: This chapter discusses Hierarchical Linear Models in Applications, Applications in Organizational Research, and Applications in the Study of Individual Change Applications in Meta-Analysis and Other Cases Where Level-1 Variances are Known.
Book

Multilevel Statistical Models

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a general classification notation for multilevel models and a discussion of the general structure and maximum likelihood estimation for a multi-level model, as well as the adequacy of Ordinary Least Squares estimates.
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Q1. What are the contributions in "Predicting small-area health-related behaviour: a comparison of smoking and drinking indicators" ?

Such surveys seldom generate reliable data at scales more local than that of the health authority, they also need to be repeated regularly. This paper outlines an alternative framework for generating statistics on small-area health related behaviours using routinely available data from the annual Health Survey for England N ˆ 17,000† and the decennial Population Census. Using a multilevel modelling approach nesting individuals within postcode sectors within health authorities, and focusing on the prevalence of smoking and ` problem ' drinking, the paper comprises four sections: a consideration of the modelling strategy, a comparison of the smoking and drinking models, an outline of the estimation strategy, and the presentation and discussion of ward-level estimates of smoking and drinking behaviour for England. The paper concludes that the method is better at estimating smoking than drinking but that it o€ers a feasible, cheap and more informative alternative to the survey approach to the generation of information on smoking and drinking behaviour. 

Further work has explored the relationship between these ` synthetic estimations ' and the results of local surveys and the impact of using a multilevel approach ( Moon et al., 1998 ). For the purposes of this methodological paper however, two key concluding points can be made. 

Well-structured surveys with sound sampling design capable of generating representative results at the subdistrict level are estimated to cost at least £50,000 for a single district health authority. 

Cross-level interactions suggest that single women living in areas with high percentages of private rented households have a raised likelihood of problem drink-ing while single women living in a uent areas are more likely to smoke. 

Other important contextual variables such as tenure andsocial class are not available in a small area cross-tabulation, which also contains age and gender thus losing the basis for age-sex standardisation. 

Additionally there are also substantive reasons for not including the household level: in a correct model, the overall e ect of including the level of household would be to reduce variation at the higher levels. 

the a uence of an area, as measured by the surrogate of dual car ownership, equates with a reduced likelihood of smoking but an increased likelihood of problem drinking. 

Male gender and being single are particularly important factors in both cases, the former notably so in the case of problem drinking. 

In the main however the sampling design of national surveys is insu ciently robust to permit disaggregation below the scale of 14±25 regions Ð and, paradoxically, any attempts at such disaggregation could only be validated with local survey data. 

The most detailed such crosstabulation available at the census ward level and relevant to health-related behaviour is age (grouped into several age bands), marital status and gender. 

the chosen parameters were theoretically justi®ed as appropriate measures to achieve standardisation of individual responses and capture the impact of deprivation ecologies and, while more complex models might have been developed had the objective of the study been the description of health-related behaviours, few parameters were used because of the limits imposed by the need subsequently to use the Census to generate predictions. 

In the late 1980s, geodemographics emerged as a potential third strategy for identifying local variations in health-related behaviour (Speller and Hale, 1985). 

The importance of the census as the basis for local predictions of health-related behaviour also constrained the individual-level explanatory variables.