Projected cancer risks from computed tomographic scans performed in the United States in 2007.

TLDR: These detailed estimates highlight several areas of CT scan use that make large contributions to the total cancer risk, including several scan types and age groups with a high frequency of use or scans involving relatively high doses, in which risk-reduction efforts may be warranted.

Abstract: Methods: Risk models based on the National Research Council’s “Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation” report and organ-specific radiation doses derived from a national survey were used to estimate age-specific cancer risks for each scan type. These models were combined with age- and sex-specific scan frequencies for the US in 2007 obtained from survey and insurance claims data. We estimated the mean number of radiationrelatedincidentcancerswith95%uncertaintylimits(UL) using Monte Carlo simulations. Results:Overall,weestimatedthatapproximately29000 (95% UL, 15000-45000) future cancers could be related to CT scans performed in the US in 2007. The largest contributions were from scans of the abdomen and pelvis (n=14 000) (95% UL, 6900-25 000), chest (n=4100) (95% UL, 1900-8100), and head (n=4000) (95% UL, 1100-8700), as well as from chest CT angiography (n=2700) (95% UL, 1300-5000). One-third of the projectedcancerswereduetoscansperformedattheages of 35 to 54 years compared with 15% due to scans performed at ages younger than 18 years, and 66% were in females.