Showing papers in "BMJ in 2013"

SPIRIT 2013 explanation and elaboration: guidance for protocols of clinical trials

Abstract: High quality protocols facilitate proper conduct, reporting, and external review of clinical trials. However, the completeness of trial protocols is often inadequate. To help improve the content and quality of protocols, an international group of stakeholders developed the SPIRIT 2013 Statement (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials). The SPIRIT Statement provides guidance in the form of a checklist of recommended items to include in a clinical trial protocol. This SPIRIT 2013 Explanation and Elaboration paper provides important information to promote full understanding of the checklist recommendations. For each checklist item, we provide a rationale and detailed description; a model example from an actual protocol; and relevant references supporting its importance. We strongly recommend that this explanatory paper be used in conjunction with the SPIRIT Statement. A website of resources is also available (www.spirit-statement.org). The SPIRIT 2013 Explanation and Elaboration paper, together with the Statement, should help with the drafting of trial protocols. Complete documentation of key trial elements can facilitate transparency and protocol review for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Cancer risk in 680 000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians

Abstract: Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement

Abstract: Economic evaluations of health interventions pose a particular challenge for reporting. There is also a need to consolidate and update existing guidelines and promote their use in a user friendly manner. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement is an attempt to consolidate and update previous health economic evaluation guidelines efforts into one current, useful reporting guidance. The primary audiences for the CHEERS statement are researchers reporting economic evaluations and the editors and peer reviewers assessing them for publication. The need for new reporting guidance was identified by a survey of medical editors. A list of possible items based on a systematic review was created. A two round, modified Delphi panel consisting of representatives from academia, clinical practice, industry, government, and the editorial community was conducted. Out of 44 candidate items, 24 items and accompanying recommendations were developed. The recommendations are contained in a user friendly, 24 item checklist. A copy of the statement, accompanying checklist, and this report can be found on the ISPOR Health Economic Evaluations Publication Guidelines Task Force website (www.ispor.org/TaskForces/ EconomicPubGuidelines.asp). We hope CHEERS will lead to better reporting, and ultimately, better health decisions. To facilitate dissemination and uptake, the CHEERS statement is being co-published across 10 health economics and medical journals. We encourage other journals and groups, to endorse CHEERS. The author team plans to review the checklist for an update in five years.

Patient reported outcome measures could help transform healthcare.

Abstract: Routine use of patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) has the potential to help transform healthcare, says Nick Black . Not only can PROMs help patients and clinicians make better decisions, but they can also enable comparisons of providers’ performances to stimulate improvements in services

Effect of longer term modest salt reduction on blood pressure: Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

Abstract: Objective To determine the effects of longer term modest salt reduction on blood pressure, hormones, and lipids. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, Cochrane Hypertension Group Specialised Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and reference list of relevant articles. Inclusion criteria Randomised trials with a modest reduction in salt intake and duration of at least four weeks. Data extraction and analysis Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Random effects meta-analyses, subgroup analyses, and meta-regression were performed. Results Thirty four trials (3230 participants) were included. Meta-analysis showed that the mean change in urinary sodium (reduced salt v usual salt) was −75 mmol/24 h (equivalent to a reduction of 4.4 g/day salt), and with this reduction in salt intake, the mean change in blood pressure was −4.18 mm Hg (95% confidence interval −5.18 to −3.18, I 2 =75%) for systolic blood pressure and −2.06 mm Hg (−2.67 to −1.45, I 2 =68%) for diastolic blood pressure. Meta-regression showed that age, ethnic group, blood pressure status (hypertensive or normotensive), and the change in 24 hour urinary sodium were all significantly associated with the fall in systolic blood pressure, explaining 68% of the variance between studies. A 100 mmol reduction in 24 hour urinary sodium (6 g/day salt) was associated with a fall in systolic blood pressure of 5.8 mm Hg (2.5 to 9.2, P=0.001) after adjustment for age, ethnic group, and blood pressure status. For diastolic blood pressure, age, ethnic group, blood pressure status, and the change in 24 hour urinary sodium explained 41% of the variance between studies. Meta-analysis by subgroup showed that in people with hypertension the mean effect was −5.39 mm Hg (−6.62 to −4.15, I 2 =61%) for systolic blood pressure and −2.82 mm Hg (−3.54 to −2.11, I 2 =52%) for diastolic blood pressure. In normotensive people, the figures were −2.42 mm Hg (−3.56 to −1.29, I 2 =66%) and −1.00 mm Hg (−1.85 to −0.15, I 2 =66%), respectively. Further subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in systolic blood pressure was significant in both white and black people and in men and women. Meta-analysis of data on hormones and lipids showed that the mean change was 0.26 ng/mL/h (0.17 to 0.36, I 2 =70%) for plasma renin activity, 73.20 pmol/L (44.92 to 101.48, I 2 =62%) for aldosterone, 187 pmol/L (39 to 336, I 2 =5%) for noradrenaline (norepinephrine), 37 pmol/L (−1 to 74, I 2 =12%) for adrenaline (epinephrine), 0.05 mmol/L (−0.02 to 0.11, I 2 =0%) for total cholesterol, 0.05 mmol/L (−0.01 to 0.12, I 2 =0%) for low density lipoprotein cholesterol, −0.02 mmol/L (−0.06 to 0.01, I 2 =16%) for high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and 0.04 mmol/L (−0.02 to 0.09, I 2 =0%) for triglycerides. Conclusions A modest reduction in salt intake for four or more weeks causes significant and, from a population viewpoint, important falls in blood pressure in both hypertensive and normotensive individuals, irrespective of sex and ethnic group. Salt reduction is associated with a small physiological increase in plasma renin activity, aldosterone, and noradrenaline and no significant change in lipid concentrations. These results support a reduction in population salt intake, which will lower population blood pressure and thereby reduce cardiovascular disease. The observed significant association between the reduction in 24 hour urinary sodium and the fall in systolic blood pressure, indicates that larger reductions in salt intake will lead to larger falls in systolic blood pressure. The current recommendations to reduce salt intake from 9-12 to 5-6 g/day will have a major effect on blood pressure, but a further reduction to 3 g/day will have a greater effect and should become the long term target for population salt intake.

Bariatric surgery versus non-surgical treatment for obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Abstract: Objective To quantify the overall effects of bariatric surgery compared with non-surgical treatment for obesity. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis based on a random effects model. Data sources Searches of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from their inception to December 2012 regardless of language or publication status. Eligibility criteria Eligible studies were randomised controlled trials with ≥6 months of follow-up that included individuals with a body mass index ≥30, compared current bariatric surgery techniques with non-surgical treatment, and reported on body weight, cardiovascular risk factors, quality of life, or adverse events. Results The meta-analysis included 11 studies with 796 individuals (range of mean body mass index at baseline 30-52). Individuals allocated to bariatric surgery lost more body weight (mean difference −26 kg (95% confidence interval −31 to −21)) compared with non-surgical treatment, had a higher remission rate of type 2 diabetes (relative risk 22.1 (3.2 to 154.3) in a complete case analysis; 5.3 (1.8 to 15.8) in a conservative analysis assuming diabetes remission in all non-surgically treated individuals with missing data) and metabolic syndrome (relative risk 2.4 (1.6 to 3.6) in complete case analysis; 1.5 (0.9 to 2.3) in conservative analysis), greater improvements in quality of life and reductions in medicine use (no pooled data). Plasma triglyceride concentrations decreased more (mean difference −0.7 mmol/L (−1.0 to −0.4) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations increased more (mean difference 0.21 mmol/L (0.1 to 0.3)). Changes in blood pressure and total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations were not significantly different. There were no cardiovascular events or deaths reported after bariatric surgery. The most common adverse events after bariatric surgery were iron deficiency anaemia (15% of individuals undergoing malabsorptive bariatric surgery) and reoperations (8%). Conclusions Compared with non-surgical treatment of obesity, bariatric surgery leads to greater body weight loss and higher remission rates of type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. However, results are limited to two years of follow-up and based on a small number of studies and individuals. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42012003317 (www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO).

Effect of lower sodium intake on health: systematic review and meta-analyses

Abstract: Objective To assess the effect of decreased sodium intake on blood pressure, related cardiovascular diseases, and potential adverse effects such as changes in blood lipids, catecholamine levels, and renal function. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the Latin American and Caribbean health science literature database, and the reference lists of previous reviews. Study selection Randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies in non-acutely ill adults and children assessing the relations between sodium intake and blood pressure, renal function, blood lipids, and catecholamine levels, and in non-acutely ill adults all cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and coronary heart disease. Study appraisal and synthesis Potential studies were screened independently and in duplicate and study characteristics and outcomes extracted. When possible we conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the effect of lower sodium intake using the inverse variance method and a random effects model. We present results as mean differences or risk ratios, with 95% confidence intervals. Results We included 14 cohort studies and five randomised controlled trials reporting all cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, stroke, or coronary heart disease; and 37 randomised controlled trials measuring blood pressure, renal function, blood lipids, and catecholamine levels in adults. Nine controlled trials and one cohort study in children reporting on blood pressure were also included. In adults a reduction in sodium intake significantly reduced resting systolic blood pressure by 3.39 mm Hg (95% confidence interval 2.46 to 4.31) and resting diastolic blood pressure by 1.54 mm Hg (0.98 to 2.11). When sodium intake was 0.05). There were insufficient randomised controlled trials to assess the effects of reduced sodium intake on mortality and morbidity. The associations in cohort studies between sodium intake and all cause mortality, incident fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease were non-significant (P>0.05). Increased sodium intake was associated with an increased risk of stroke (risk ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.43), stroke mortality (1.63, 1.27 to 2.10), and coronary heart disease mortality (1.32, 1.13 to 1.53). In children, a reduction in sodium intake significantly reduced systolic blood pressure by 0.84 mm Hg (0.25 to 1.43) and diastolic blood pressure by 0.87 mm Hg (0.14 to 1.60). Conclusions High quality evidence in non-acutely ill adults shows that reduced sodium intake reduces blood pressure and has no adverse effect on blood lipids, catecholamine levels, or renal function, and moderate quality evidence in children shows that a reduction in sodium intake reduces blood pressure. Lower sodium intake is also associated with a reduced risk of stroke and fatal coronary heart disease in adults. The totality of evidence suggests that most people will likely benefit from reducing sodium intake.

Opioid overdose rates and implementation of overdose education and nasal naloxone distribution in Massachusetts: interrupted time series analysis

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the impact of state supported overdose education and nasal naloxone distribution (OEND) programs on rates of opioid related death from overdose and acute care utilization in Massachusetts. Design Interrupted time series analysis of opioid related overdose death and acute care utilization rates from 2002 to 2009 comparing community-year strata with high and low rates of OEND implementation to those with no implementation.

Pre-eclampsia rates in the United States, 1980-2010: age-period-cohort analysis

Abstract: Objective To estimate the contributions of biological aging, historical trends, and birth cohort effects on trends in pre-eclampsia in the United States.

Effect of increased potassium intake on cardiovascular risk factors and disease: systematic review and meta-analyses

Abstract: Objective To conduct a systematic review of the literature and meta-analyses to fill the gaps in knowledge on potassium intake and health. Data sources Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature Database, and the reference lists of previous reviews. Study selection Randomised controlled trials and cohort studies reporting the effects of potassium intake on blood pressure, renal function, blood lipids, catecholamine concentrations, all cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and coronary heart disease were included. Data extraction and synthesis Potential studies were independently screened in duplicate, and their characteristics and outcomes were extracted. When possible, meta-analysis was done to estimate the effects (mean difference or risk ratio with 95% confidence interval) of higher potassium intake by using the inverse variance method and a random effect model. Results 22 randomised controlled trials (including 1606 participants) reporting blood pressure, blood lipids, catecholamine concentrations, and renal function and 11 cohort studies (127 038 participants) reporting all cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, stroke, or coronary heart disease in adults were included in the meta-analyses. Increased potassium intake reduced systolic blood pressure by 3.49 (95% confidence interval 1.82 to 5.15) mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure by 1.96 (0.86 to 3.06) mm Hg in adults, an effect seen in people with hypertension but not in those without hypertension. Systolic blood pressure was reduced by 7.16 (1.91 to 12.41) mm Hg when the higher potassium intake was 90-120 mmol/day, without any dose response. Increased potassium intake had no significant adverse effect on renal function, blood lipids, or catecholamine concentrations in adults. An inverse statistically significant association was seen between potassium intake and risk of incident stroke (risk ratio 0.76, 0.66 to 0.89). Associations between potassium intake and incident cardiovascular disease (risk ratio 0.88, 0.70 to 1.11) or coronary heart disease (0.96, 0.78 to 1.19) were not statistically significant. In children, three controlled trials and one cohort study suggested that increased potassium intake reduced systolic blood pressure by a non-significant 0.28 (−0.49 to 1.05) mm Hg. Conclusions High quality evidence shows that increased potassium intake reduces blood pressure in people with hypertension and has no adverse effect on blood lipid concentrations, catecholamine concentrations, or renal function in adults. Higher potassium intake was associated with a 24% lower risk of stroke (moderate quality evidence). These results suggest that increased potassium intake is potentially beneficial to most people without impaired renal handling of potassium for the prevention and control of elevated blood pressure and stroke.

The gap in life expectancy from preventable physical illness in psychiatric patients in Western Australia: Retrospective analysis of population based registers

Abstract: Objective To examine the mortality experience of psychiatric patients in Western Australia compared with the general population. Design Population based study. Setting Western Australia, 1985-2005. Participants Psychiatric patients (292 585) registered with mental health services in Western Australia. Main outcome measures Trends in life expectancy for psychiatric patients compared with the Western Australian population and causes of excess mortality, including physical health conditions and unnatural causes of death. Results When using active prevalence of disorder (contact with services in previous five years), the life expectancy gap increased from 13.5 to 15.9 years for males and from 10.4 to 12.0 years for females between 1985 and 2005. Additionally, 77.7% of excess deaths were attributed to physical health conditions, including cardiovascular disease (29.9%) and cancer (13.5%). Suicide was the cause of 13.9% of excess deaths. Conclusions Despite knowledge about excess mortality in people with mental illness, the gap in their life expectancy compared with the general population has widened since 1985. With most excess deaths being due to physical health conditions, public efforts should be directed towards improving physical health to reduce mortality in people with mental illness, in addition to ongoing efforts to prevent suicide.

Maternal and fetal risk factors for stillbirth: population based study

Abstract: Objective To assess the main risk factors associated with stillbirth in a multiethnic English maternity population. Design Cohort study. Setting National Health Service region in England. Population 92 218 normally formed singletons including 389 stillbirths from 24 weeks of gestation, delivered during 2009-11. Main outcome measure Risk of stillbirth. Results Multivariable analysis identified a significant risk of stillbirth for parity (para 0 and para ≥3), ethnicity (African, African-Caribbean, Indian, and Pakistani), maternal obesity (body mass index ≥30), smoking, pre-existing diabetes, and history of mental health problems, antepartum haemorrhage, and fetal growth restriction (birth weight below 10th customised birthweight centile). As potentially modifiable risk factors, maternal obesity, smoking in pregnancy, and fetal growth restriction together accounted for 56.1% of the stillbirths. Presence of fetal growth restriction constituted the highest risk, and this applied to pregnancies where mothers did not smoke (adjusted relative risk 7.8, 95% confidence interval 6.6 to 10.9), did smoke (5.7, 3.6 to 10.9), and were exposed to passive smoke only (10.0, 6.6 to 15.8). Fetal growth restriction also had the largest population attributable risk for stillbirth and was fivefold greater if it was not detected antenatally than when it was (32.0% v 6.2%). In total, 195 of the 389 stillbirths in this cohort had fetal growth restriction, but in 160 (82%) it had not been detected antenatally. Antenatal recognition of fetal growth restriction resulted in delivery 10 days earlier than when it was not detected: median 270 (interquartile range 261-279) days v 280 (interquartile range 273-287) days. The overall stillbirth rate (per 1000 births) was 4.2, but only 2.4 in pregnancies without fetal growth restriction, increasing to 9.7 with antenatally detected fetal growth restriction and 19.8 when it was not detected. Conclusion Most normally formed singleton stillbirths are potentially avoidable. The single largest risk factor is unrecognised fetal growth restriction, and preventive strategies need to focus on improving antenatal detection.

Lithium in the prevention of suicide in mood disorders: updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Objective To assess whether lithium has a specific preventive effect for suicide and self harm in people with unipolar and bipolar mood disorders. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, CENTRAL, web based clinical trial registries, major textbooks, authors of important papers and other experts in the discipline, and websites of pharmaceutical companies that manufacture lithium or the comparator drugs (up to January 2013). Inclusion criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing lithium with placebo or active drugs in long term treatment for mood disorders. Review methods Two reviewers assessed studies for inclusion and risk of bias and extracted data. The main outcomes were the number of people who completed suicide, engaged in deliberate self harm, and died from any cause. Results 48 randomised controlled trials (6674 participants, 15 comparisons) were included. Lithium was more effective than placebo in reducing the number of suicides (odds ratio 0.13, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.66) and deaths from any cause (0.38, 0.15 to 0.95). No clear benefits were observed for lithium compared with placebo in preventing deliberate self harm (0.60, 0.27 to 1.32). In unipolar depression, lithium was associated with a reduced risk of suicide (0.36, 0.13 to 0.98) and also the number of total deaths (0.13, 0.02 to 0.76) compared with placebo. When lithium was compared with each active individual treatment a statistically significant difference was found only with carbamazepine for deliberate self harm. Lithium tended to be generally better than the other active comparators, with small statistical variation between the results. Conclusions Lithium is an effective treatment for reducing the risk of suicide in people with mood disorders. Lithium may exert its antisuicidal effects by reducing relapse of mood disorder, but additional mechanisms should also be considered because there is some evidence that lithium decreases aggression and possibly impulsivity, which might be another mechanism mediating the antisuicidal effect.

Anaemia, prenatal iron use, and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Objectives To summarise evidence on the associations of maternal anaemia and prenatal iron use with maternal haematological and adverse pregnancy outcomes; and to evaluate potential exposure-response relations of dose of iron, duration of use, and haemoglobin concentration in prenatal period with pregnancy outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis Data sources Searches of PubMed and Embase for studies published up to May 2012 and references of review articles. Study selection criteria Randomised trials of prenatal iron use and prospective cohort studies of prenatal anaemia; cross sectional and case-control studies were excluded. Results 48 randomised trials (17 793 women) and 44 cohort studies (1 851 682 women) were included. Iron use increased maternal mean haemoglobin concentration by 4.59 (95% confidence interval 3.72 to 5.46) g/L compared with controls and significantly reduced the risk of anaemia (relative risk 0.50, 0.42 to 0.59), iron deficiency (0.59, 0.46 to 0.79), iron deficiency anaemia (0.40, 0.26 to 0.60), and low birth weight (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). The effect of iron on preterm birth was not significant (relative risk 0.84, 0.68 to 1.03). Analysis of cohort studies showed a significantly higher risk of low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, 1.09 to 1.53) and preterm birth (1.21, 1.13 to 1.30) with anaemia in the first or second trimester. Exposure-response analysis indicated that for every 10 mg increase in iron dose/day, up to 66 mg/day, the relative risk of maternal anaemia was 0.88 (0.84 to 0.92) (P for linear trend Conclusions Daily prenatal use of iron substantially improved birth weight in a linear dose-response fashion, probably leading to a reduction in risk of low birth weight. An improvement in prenatal mean haemoglobin concentration linearly increased birth weight.

Demystifying trial networks and network meta-analysis

Abstract: Networks of randomized clinical trials can be evaluated in the context of a network meta-analysis, a procedure that permits inferences into the comparative effectiveness of interventions that may or may not have been evaluated directly against each other. This approach is quickly gaining popularity among clinicians and guideline decision makers. However, certain methodological aspects are poorly understood. Here, we explain the geometry of a network, statistical and conceptual heterogeneity and incoherence, and challenges in the application and interpretation of data synthesis. These concepts are essential to make sense of a network meta-analysis.

Association between maternal serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and pregnancy and neonatal outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Abstract: Objective To assess the effect of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels on pregnancy outcomes and birth variables. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline (1966 to August 2012), PubMed (2008 to August 2012), Embase (1980 to August 2012), CINAHL (1981 to August 2012), the Cochrane database of systematic reviews, and the Cochrane database of registered clinical trials. Study selection Studies reporting on the association between serum 25-OHD levels during pregnancy and the outcomes of interest (pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, bacterial vaginosis, caesarean section, small for gestational age infants, birth weight, birth length, and head circumference). Data extraction Two authors independently extracted data from original research articles, including key indicators of study quality. We pooled the most adjusted odds ratios and weighted mean differences. Associations were tested in subgroups representing different patient characteristics and study quality. Results 3357 studies were identified and reviewed for eligibility. 31 eligible studies were included in the final analysis. Insufficient serum levels of 25-OHD were associated with gestational diabetes (pooled odds ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.89), pre-eclampsia (1.79, 1.25 to 2.58), and small for gestational age infants (1.85, 1.52 to 2.26). Pregnant women with low serum 25-OHD levels had an increased risk of bacterial vaginosis and low birthweight infants but not delivery by caesarean section. Conclusion Vitamin D insufficiency is associated with an increased risk of gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia, and small for gestational age infants. Pregnant women with low 25-OHD levels had an increased risk of bacterial vaginosis and lower birth weight infants, but not delivery by caesarean section.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

Abstract: Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s r s =0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Comparative effectiveness of exercise and drug interventions on mortality outcomes: metaepidemiological study

Abstract: Objective To determine the comparative effectiveness of exercise versus drug interventions on mortality outcomes. Design Metaepidemiological study. Eligibility criteria Meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials with mortality outcomes comparing the effectiveness of exercise and drug interventions with each other or with control (placebo or usual care). Data sources Medline and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, May 2013. Main outcome measure Mortality. Data synthesis We combined study level death outcomes from exercise and drug trials using random effects network meta-analysis. Results We included 16 (four exercise and 12 drug) meta-analyses. Incorporating an additional three recent exercise trials, our review collectively included 305 randomised controlled trials with 339 274 participants. Across all four conditions with evidence on the effectiveness of exercise on mortality outcomes (secondary prevention of coronary heart disease, rehabilitation of stroke, treatment of heart failure, prevention of diabetes), 14 716 participants were randomised to physical activity interventions in 57 trials. No statistically detectable differences were evident between exercise and drug interventions in the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and prediabetes. Physical activity interventions were more effective than drug treatment among patients with stroke (odds ratios, exercise v anticoagulants 0.09, 95% credible intervals 0.01 to 0.70 and exercise v antiplatelets 0.10, 0.01 to 0.62). Diuretics were more effective than exercise in heart failure (exercise v diuretics 4.11, 1.17 to 24.76). Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons was not significant. Conclusions Although limited in quantity, existing randomised trial evidence on exercise interventions suggests that exercise and many drug interventions are often potentially similar in terms of their mortality benefits in the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease, rehabilitation after stroke, treatment of heart failure, and prevention of diabetes.

Dietary fibre intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Objective To investigate dietary fibre intake and any potential dose-response association with coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease. Design Systematic review of available literature and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies using random effects models. Data sources The Cochrane Library, Medline, Medline in-process, Embase, CAB Abstracts, ISI Web of Science, BIOSIS, and hand searching. Eligibility criteria for studies Prospective studies reporting associations between fibre intake and coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease, with a minimum follow-up of three years and published in English between 1 January 1990 and 6 August 2013. Results 22 cohort study publications met inclusion criteria and reported total dietary fibre intake, fibre subtypes, or fibre from food sources and primary events of cardiovascular disease or coronary heart disease. Total dietary fibre intake was inversely associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (risk ratio 0.91 per 7 g/day (95% confidence intervals 0.88 to 0.94)) and coronary heart disease (0.91 (0.87 to 0.94)). There was evidence of some heterogeneity between pooled studies for cardiovascular disease (I 2 =45% (0% to 74%)) and coronary heart disease (I 2 =33% (0% to 66%)). Insoluble fibre and fibre from cereal and vegetable sources were inversely associated with risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease. Fruit fibre intake was inversely associated with risk of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions Greater dietary fibre intake is associated with a lower risk of both cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease. Findings are aligned with general recommendations to increase fibre intake. The differing strengths of association by fibre type or source highlight the need for a better understanding of the mode of action of fibre components.

Populations at risk for severe or complicated influenza illness: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Objective To evaluate risk factors for severe outcomes in patients with seasonal and pandemic influenza. Design Systematic review. Study selection Observational studies reporting on risk factor-outcome combinations of interest in participants with influenza. Outcomes included death, ventilator support, admission to hospital, admission to an intensive care unit, pneumonia, and composite outcomes. Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Global Health, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to March 2011. Risk of bias assessment Newcastle-Ottawa scale to assess the risk of bias. GRADE framework to evaluate the quality of evidence. Results 63 537 articles were identified of which 234 with a total of 610 782 participants met the inclusion criteria. The evidence supporting risk factors for severe outcomes of influenza ranged from being limited to absent. This was particularly relevant for the relative lack of data for non-2009 H1N1 pandemics and for seasonal influenza studies. Limitations in the published literature included lack of power and lack of adjustment for confounders was widespread: adjusted risk estimates were provided for only 5% of risk factor-outcome comparisons in 39 of 260 (15%) studies. The level of evidence was low for “any risk factor” (odds ratio for mortality 2.77, 95% confidence interval 1.90 to 4.05 for pandemic influenza and 2.04, 1.74 to 2.39 for seasonal influenza), obesity (2.74, 1.56 to 4.80 and 30.1, 1.74 to 2.39), cardiovascular diseases (2.92, 1.76 to 4.86 and 1.97, 1.06 to 3.67), and neuromuscular disease (2.68, 1.91 to 3.75 and 3.21, 1.84 to 5.58). The level of evidence was very low for all other risk factors. Some well accepted risk factors such as pregnancy and belonging to an ethnic minority group could not be identified as risk factors. In contrast, women who were less than four weeks post partum had a significantly increased risk of death from pandemic influenza (4.43, 1.24 to 15.81). Conclusion The level of evidence to support risk factors for influenza related complications is low and some well accepted risk factors, including pregnancy and ethnicity, could not be confirmed as risks. Rigorous and adequately powered studies are needed.

Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 1: A framework for researching clinical outcomes

Abstract: Understanding and improving the prognosis of a disease or health condition is a priority in clinical research and practice. In this article, the authors introduce a framework of four interrelated themes in prognosis research, describe the importance of the first of these themes (understanding future outcomes in relation to current diagnostic and treatment practices), and introduce recommendations for the field of prognosis research

Maternal obesity during pregnancy and premature mortality from cardiovascular event in adult offspring: follow-up of 1 323 275 person years

Abstract: Objectives To determine whether maternal obesity during pregnancy is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular events in adult offspring. Design Record linkage cohort analysis. Setting Birth records from the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal databank linked to the General Register of Deaths, Scotland, and the Scottish Morbidity Record systems. Population 37 709 people with birth records from 1950 to present day. Main outcome measures Death and hospital admissions for cardiovascular events up to 1 January 2012 in offspring aged 34-61. Maternal body mass index (BMI) was calculated from height and weight measured at the first antenatal visit. The effect of maternal obesity on outcomes in offspring was tested with time to event analysis with Cox proportional hazard regression to compare outcomes in offspring of mothers in underweight, overweight, or obese categories of BMI compared with offspring of women with normal BMI. Results All cause mortality was increased in offspring of obese mothers (BMI >30) compared with mothers with normal BMI after adjustment for maternal age at delivery, socioeconomic status, sex of offspring, current age, birth weight, gestation at delivery, and gestation at measurement of BMI (hazard ratio 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.55). In adjusted models, offspring of obese mothers also had an increased risk of hospital admission for a cardiovascular event (1.29, 1.06 to 1.57) compared with offspring of mothers with normal BMI. The offspring of overweight mothers also had a higher risk of adverse outcomes. Conclusions Maternal obesity is associated with an increased risk of premature death in adult offspring. As one in five women in the United Kingdom is obese at antenatal booking, strategies to optimise weight before pregnancy are urgently required.

Use of dietary linoleic acid for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death: evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and updated meta-analysis.

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of replacing dietary saturated fat with omega 6 linoleic acid, for the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death. Design Evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study, a single blinded, parallel group, randomized controlled trial conducted in 1966-73; and an updated meta-analysis including these previously missing data. Setting Ambulatory, coronary care clinic in Sydney, Australia. Participants 458 men aged 30-59 years with a recent coronary event. Interventions Replacement of dietary saturated fats (from animal fats, common margarines, and shortenings) with omega 6 linoleic acid (from safflower oil and safflower oil polyunsaturated margarine). Controls received no specific dietary instruction or study foods. All non-dietary aspects were designed to be equivalent in both groups. Outcome measures All cause mortality (primary outcome), cardiovascular mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease (secondary outcomes). We used an intention to treat, survival analysis approach to compare mortality outcomes by group. Results The intervention group (n=221) had higher rates of death than controls (n=237) (all cause 17.6% v 11.8%, hazard ratio 1.62 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 2.64), P=0.05; cardiovascular disease 17.2% v 11.0%, 1.70 (1.03 to 2.80), P=0.04; coronary heart disease 16.3% v 10.1%, 1.74 (1.04 to 2.92), P=0.04). Inclusion of these recovered data in an updated meta-analysis of linoleic acid intervention trials showed non-significant trends toward increased risks of death from coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 1.33 (0.99 to 1.79); P=0.06) and cardiovascular disease (1.27 (0.98 to 1.65); P=0.07). Conclusions Advice to substitute polyunsaturated fats for saturated fats is a key component of worldwide dietary guidelines for coronary heart disease risk reduction. However, clinical benefits of the most abundant polyunsaturated fatty acid, omega 6 linoleic acid, have not been established. In this cohort, substituting dietary linoleic acid in place of saturated fats increased the rates of death from all causes, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease. An updated meta-analysis of linoleic acid intervention trials showed no evidence of cardiovascular benefit. These findings could have important implications for worldwide dietary advice to substitute omega 6 linoleic acid, or polyunsaturated fats in general, for saturated fats. Trial registration Clinical trials NCT01621087.

Fruit consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: results from three prospective longitudinal cohort studies

Abstract: Objective To determine whether individual fruits are differentially associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort study. Setting Health professionals in the United States. Participants 66 105 women from the Nurses’ Health Study (1984-2008), 85 104 women from the Nurses’ Health Study II (1991-2009), and 36 173 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2008) who were free of major chronic diseases at baseline in these studies. Main outcome measure Incident cases of type 2 diabetes, identified through self report and confirmed by supplementary questionnaires. Results During 3 464 641 person years of follow-up, 12 198 participants developed type 2 diabetes. After adjustment for personal, lifestyle, and dietary risk factors of diabetes, the pooled hazard ratio of type 2 diabetes for every three servings/week of total whole fruit consumption was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99). With mutual adjustment of individual fruits, the pooled hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes for every three servings/week were 0.74 (0.66 to 0.83) for blueberries, 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93) for grapes and raisins, 0.89 (0.79 to 1.01) for prunes, 0.93 (0.90 to 0.96) for apples and pears, 0.95 (0.91 to 0.98) for bananas, 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) for grapefruit, 0.97 (0.92 to 1.02) for peaches, plums, and apricots, 0.99 (0.95 to 1.03) for oranges, 1.03 (0.96 to 1.10) for strawberries, and 1.10 (1.02 to 1.18) for cantaloupe. The pooled hazard ratio for the same increment in fruit juice consumption was 1.08 (1.05 to 1.11). The associations with risk of type 2 diabetes differed significantly among individual fruits (P<0.001 in all cohorts). Conclusion Our findings suggest the presence of heterogeneity in the associations between individual fruit consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes. Greater consumption of specific whole fruits, particularly blueberries, grapes, and apples, is significantly associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas greater consumption of fruit juice is associated with a higher risk.

Severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis with bias analysis.

Abstract: Objectives To provide a systematic and quantitative summary of the association between severe hypoglycaemia and risk of cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes and to examine the sensitivity of the association to possible uncontrolled confounding by unmeasured comorbid severe illness using a bias analysis. Design Meta-analysis of observational studies. Data sources Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases were searched to February 2013, without any language restrictions. Eligibility criteria Two independent reviewers selected cohort studies that evaluated the association of severe hypoglycaemia with cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes; we excluded studies from acute hospital settings. We extracted descriptive and quantitative data. Results Of 3443 citations screened, six eligible studies with 903 510 participants were identified. In the conventional random effects meta-analysis, severe hypoglycaemia was strongly associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (relative risk 2.05, 95% confidence interval 1.74 to 2.42; P 2 =73.1%; P=0.002 for heterogeneity), most subgroups showed similar results in stratified analyses. The bias analysis indicated that comorbid severe illness alone may not explain the association between hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular disease; to explain this association, comorbid severe illness would have had to be extremely strongly associated with both severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular disease. Conclusion Our findings suggest that severe hypoglycaemia is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease; they also support the notion that avoiding severe hypoglycaemia may be important to prevent cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes.

The true cost of antimicrobial resistance

Abstract: Richard Smith and Joanna Coast argue that current estimates of the cost of antibiotic resistance are misleading and may result in inadequate investment in tackling the problem

Genital warts in young Australians five years into national human papillomavirus vaccination programme: national surveillance data

Abstract: Objective To measure the effect on genital warts of the national human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Australia, which started in mid-2007. Design Trend analysis of national surveillance data. Setting Data collated from eight sexual health services from 2004 to 2011; the two largest clinics also collected self reported human papillomavirus vaccination status from 2009. Participants Between 2004 and 2011, 85 770 Australian born patients were seen for the first time; 7686 (9.0%) were found to have genital warts. Main outcome measure Rate ratios comparing trends in proportion of new patients diagnosed as having genital warts in the pre-vaccination period (2004 to mid-2007) and vaccination period (mid-2007 to the end of 2011). Results Large declines occurred in the proportions of under 21 year old (92.6%) and 21-30 year old (72.6%) women diagnosed as having genital warts in the vaccination period—from 11.5% in 2007 to 0.85% in 2011 (P<0.001) and from 11.3% in 2007 to 3.1% in 2011 (P<0.001), respectively. No significant decline in wart diagnoses was seen in women over 30 years of age. Significant declines occurred in proportions of under 21 year old (81.8%) and 21-30 year old (51.1%) heterosexual men diagnosed as having genital warts in the vaccination period—from 12.1% in 2007 to 2.2% in 2011 (P<0.001) and from 18.2% in 2007 to 8.9% in 2011 (P<0.001), respectively. No significant decline in genital wart diagnoses was seen in heterosexual men over 30 years of age. In 2011 no genital wart diagnoses were made among 235 women under 21 years of age who reported prior human papillomavirus vaccination. Conclusions The significant declines in the proportion of young women found to have genital warts and the absence of genital warts in vaccinated women in 2011 suggests that the human papillomavirus vaccine has a high efficacy outside of the trial setting. Large declines in diagnoses of genital warts in heterosexual men are probably due to herd immunity.

Burden of adhesions in abdominal and pelvic surgery: Systematic review and met-analysis

Abstract: Objective To estimate the disease burden of the most important complications of postoperative abdominal adhesions: small bowel obstruction, difficulties at reoperation, infertility, and chronic pain. Design Systematic review and meta-analyses. Data sources Searches of PubMed, Embase, and Central, from January 1990 to December 2012, without restrictions to publication status or language. Study selection All types of studies reporting on the incidence of adhesion related complications were considered. Data extraction and analysis The primary outcome was the incidence of adhesive small bowel obstruction in patients with a history of abdominal surgery. Secondary outcomes were the incidence of small bowel obstruction by any cause, difference in operative time, enterotomy during adhesiolysis, and pregnancy rate after abdominal surgery. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were done to study the robustness of the results. A random effects model was used to account for heterogeneity between studies. Results We identified 196 eligible papers. Heterogeneity was considerable for almost all meta-analyses. The origin of heterogeneity could not be explained by study design, study quality, publication date, anatomical site of operation, or operative technique. The incidence of small bowel obstruction by any cause after abdominal surgery was 9% (95% confidence interval 7% to 10%; I 2 =99%). the incidence of adhesive small bowel obstruction was 2% (2% to 3%; I 2 =93%); presence of adhesions was generally confirmed by emergent reoperation. In patients with a known cause of small bowel obstruction, adhesions were the single most common cause (56%, 49% to 64%; I 2 =96%). Operative time was prolonged by 15 minutes (95% confidence interval 9.3 to 21.1 minutes; I 2 =85%) in patients with previous surgery. Use of adhesiolysis resulted in a 6% (4% to 8%; I 2 =89%) incidence of iatrogenic bowel injury. The pregnancy rate after colorectal surgery in patients with inflammatory bowel disease was 50% (37% to 63%; I 2 =94%), which was significantly lower than the pregnancy rate in medically treated patients (82%, 70% to 94%; I 2 =97%). Conclusions This review provides detailed and systematically analysed knowledge of the disease burden of adhesions. Complications of postoperative adhesion formation are frequent, have a large negative effect on patients’ health, and increase workload in clinical practice. The quantitative effects should be interpreted with caution owing to large heterogeneity. Registration The review protocol was registered through PROSPERO (CRD42012003180).

Efficacy of vitamin and antioxidant supplements in prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Abstract: Objective To assess the efficacy of vitamin and antioxidant supplements in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Design Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Data sources and study selection PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINAHL, and ClinicalTrials.gov searched in June and November 2012. Two authors independently reviewed and selected eligible randomised controlled trials, based on predetermined selection criteria. Results Out of 2240 articles retrieved from databases and relevant bibliographies, 50 randomised controlled trials with 294,478 participants (156,663 in intervention groups and 137,815 in control groups) were included in the final analyses. In a fixed effect meta-analysis of the 50 trials, supplementation with vitamins and antioxidants was not associated with reductions in the risk of major cardiovascular events (relative risk 1.00, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.02; I(2)=42%). Overall, there was no beneficial effect of these supplements in the subgroup meta-analyses by type of prevention, type of vitamins and antioxidants, type of cardiovascular outcomes, study design, methodological quality, duration of treatment, funding source, provider of supplements, type of control, number of participants in each trial, and supplements given singly or in combination with other supplements. Among the subgroup meta-analyses by type of cardiovascular outcomes, vitamin and antioxidant supplementation was associated with a marginally increased risk of angina pectoris, while low dose vitamin B(6) supplementation was associated with a slightly decreased risk of major cardiovascular events. Those beneficial or harmful effects disappeared in subgroup meta-analysis of high quality randomised controlled trials within each category. Also, even though supplementation with vitamin B(6) was associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular death in high quality trials, and vitamin E supplementation with a decreased risk of myocardial infarction, those beneficial effects were seen only in randomised controlled trials in which the supplements were supplied by the pharmaceutical industry. Conclusion There is no evidence to support the use of vitamin and antioxidant supplements for prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Non-invasive versus invasive respiratory support in preterm infants at birth: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Objective To assess the role of nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) initiated at birth for prevention of death and bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very preterm infants. Design Systematic review. Data sources PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and online Pediatric Academic Society abstracts from the year of inception to June 2013. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Randomised controlled trials evaluating the effect of nasal CPAP compared with intubation in preterm infants born at less than 32 weeks’ gestation and presenting the outcomes of either death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or both (defined as the need for oxygen support or mechanical ventilation at 36 weeks corrected gestation), during hospital stay. Results Four randomised controlled trials (2782 participants) met the inclusion criteria, with 1296 infants in the nasal CPAP group and 1486 in the intubation group. All the trials reported bronchopulmonary dysplasia independently at 36 weeks corrected gestation, with borderline significance in favour of the nasal CPAP group (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.01, risk difference −0.03, 95% confidence interval −0.07 to 0.01). No difference in death was observed (relative risk 0.88, 0.68 to 1.14, risk difference −0.02, −0.04 to 0.01, respectively). Pooled analysis showed a significant benefit for the combined outcome of death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or both, at 36 weeks corrected gestation for babies treated with nasal CPAP (relative risk 0.91, 0.84 to 0.99, risk difference −0.04, -0.07 to 0.00), number needed to treat of 25). Conclusion One additional infant could survive to 36 weeks without bronchopulmonary dysplasia for every 25 babies treated with nasal CPAP in the delivery room rather than being intubated.