Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions
TLDR
Twelve approaches to determining thresholds were compared using two species in Europe and artificial neural networks, and the modelling results were assessed using four indices: sensitivity, specificity, overall prediction success and Cohen's kappa statistic.Abstract:
Transforming the results of species distribution modelling from probabilities of or suitabilities for species occurrence to presences/absences needs a specific threshold. Even though there are many approaches to determining thresholds, there is no comparative study. In this paper, twelve approaches were compared using two species in Europe and artificial neural networks, and the modelling results were assessed using four indices: sensitivity, specificity, overall prediction success and Cohen's kappa statistic. The results show that prevalence approach, average predicted probability/suitability approach, and three sensitivity-specificity-combined approaches, including sensitivity-specificity sum maximization approach, sensitivity-specificity equality approach and the approach based on the shortest distance to the top-left corner (0,1) in ROC plot, are the good ones. The commonly used kappa maximization approach is not as good as the afore-mentioned ones, and the fixed threshold approach is the worst one. We also recommend using datasets with prevalence of 50% to build models if possible since most optimization criteria might be satisfied or nearly satisfied at the same time, and therefore it's easier to find optimal thresholds in this situation.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Mapping crop types in fragmented arable landscapes using AVIRIS-NG imagery and limited field data
Eric Ariel L. Salas,Sakthi Kumaran Subburayalu,Brian K. Slater,Kaiguang Zhao,Bimal K. Bhattacharya,Rojalin Tripathy,Ayan Das,Rahul Nigam,Rucha Dave,Parshva Parekh +9 more
TL;DR: The fragmented nature of arable landscapes and diverse cropping patterns often thwart the precise mapping of crop types as discussed by the authors, thus, the use of remote sensing technologies and data mining approaches has been explored.
Journal ArticleDOI
How much should one sample to accurately predict the distribution of species assemblages? A virtual community approach
TL;DR: Virtual simulations might be used more systematically in future studies to inform about the best accuracy level that one could expect given the characteristics of the data and the methods used to fit and stack SDMs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Living on the edge: Ecological and genetic connectivity of the spiny‐footed lizard, Acanthodactylus aureus, confirms the Atlantic Sahara desert as a biogeographic corridor and centre of lineage diversification
Guillermo Velo-Antón,Fernando Martínez-Freiría,Paulo Pereira,Pierre-André Crochet,José Carlos Brito,José Carlos Brito +5 more
TL;DR: InBIO, Centro de Investigacão e Recursos Gen eticos da Universidade do Porto, Instituto de Ciências Agr arias de Vair~ao, R. Padre Armando Quintas n 7, 4485-661, Vair ~ao, Portugal CEFE UMR 5175 as discussed by the authors
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary
Sen Li,Linda Juhász-Horváth,Simona Pedde,László Pintér,László Pintér,Mark Rounsevell,Mark Rounsevell,Paula A. Harrison +7 more
TL;DR: The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatial range shape drives the grain size effects in species distribution models
TL;DR: This paper showed that the increase of SDM-derived distribution area with grain size is mainly due to the geometric increase of the area of the observed distribution range used to build the SDM.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
TL;DR: A review of predictive habitat distribution modeling is presented, which shows that a wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management.
Journal ArticleDOI
Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine.
Mark H. Zweig,Gregory Campbell +1 more
TL;DR: Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots provide a pure index of accuracy by demonstrating the limits of a test's ability to discriminate between alternative states of health over the complete spectrum of operating conditions.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models
Alan H. Fielding,John Bell +1 more
TL;DR: Thirteen recommendations are made to enable the objective selection of an error assessment technique for ecological presence/absence models and a new approach to estimating prediction error, which is based on the spatial characteristics of the errors, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Basic principles of ROC analysis
TL;DR: ROC analysis is shown to be related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making and the concepts of "average diagnostic cost" and "average net benefit" are developed and used to identify the optimal compromise among various kinds of diagnostic error.
Journal ArticleDOI
Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene
TL;DR: A series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs /GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6 � /11 August 2001 are introduced.
Related Papers (5)
Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more