Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions
TLDR
Twelve approaches to determining thresholds were compared using two species in Europe and artificial neural networks, and the modelling results were assessed using four indices: sensitivity, specificity, overall prediction success and Cohen's kappa statistic.Abstract:
Transforming the results of species distribution modelling from probabilities of or suitabilities for species occurrence to presences/absences needs a specific threshold. Even though there are many approaches to determining thresholds, there is no comparative study. In this paper, twelve approaches were compared using two species in Europe and artificial neural networks, and the modelling results were assessed using four indices: sensitivity, specificity, overall prediction success and Cohen's kappa statistic. The results show that prevalence approach, average predicted probability/suitability approach, and three sensitivity-specificity-combined approaches, including sensitivity-specificity sum maximization approach, sensitivity-specificity equality approach and the approach based on the shortest distance to the top-left corner (0,1) in ROC plot, are the good ones. The commonly used kappa maximization approach is not as good as the afore-mentioned ones, and the fixed threshold approach is the worst one. We also recommend using datasets with prevalence of 50% to build models if possible since most optimization criteria might be satisfied or nearly satisfied at the same time, and therefore it's easier to find optimal thresholds in this situation.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrating a comprehensive DNA barcode reference library with a global map of yews (Taxus L.) for forensic identification.
Jie Liu,Richard I. Milne,Michael Möller,Guang-Fu Zhu,Lin-Jiang Ye,Ya-Huang Luo,Jun-Bo Yang,Moses C. Wambulwa,Chun-Neng Wang,De-Zhu Li,Lian-Ming Gao +10 more
TL;DR: A comprehensive DNA barcode reference library is constructed and distribution maps using species distribution modelling (SDM) are generated, for all 15 Taxus species worldwide, finding that trnL‐trnF is the ideal barcode for Taxus: It can distinguish all taxus species and in combination with ITS identify hybrids.
Journal ArticleDOI
Long‐term effects of traditional and conservation‐oriented forest management on the distribution of vertebrates in Mediterranean forests: a hierarchical hybrid modelling approach
Mirko Di Febbraro,Federica Roscioni,Ludovico Frate,Maria Laura Carranza,Lorenzo De Lisio,Davide De Rosa,Marco Marchetti,Anna Loy +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, a hybrid modelling framework based on the integration of a forest dynamic model (LANDIS-II) with species distribution models (SDMs) was proposed to simulate spatially explicit patterns of forest succession for the current time and for 2050.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century
TL;DR: It is found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century and greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation.
Journal Article
Modelos predictivos de distribución para cuatro especies de mamíferos (cingulata, artiodactyla y rodentia) típicas del Chaco en Argentina
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the Maxent software to predict the current distribution of Catagonus wagneri, Pediolagus salinicola, Priodontes maximus and Tolypeutes matacus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change and floodplain vegetation—future prospects for riparian habitat availability along the Rhine River
Eva Mosner,Arnd Weber,Maria Carambia,Enno Nilson,Ulf Schmitz,Bianka Zelle,Tobias W. Donath,Tobias W. Donath,Peter Horchler +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess potential changes and their uncertainty in the future habitat availability of plant species representing characteristic floodplain vegetation types along the Rhine River, and assess the impact of climate change on floodplain communities.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
TL;DR: A review of predictive habitat distribution modeling is presented, which shows that a wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management.
Journal ArticleDOI
Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine.
Mark H. Zweig,Gregory Campbell +1 more
TL;DR: Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots provide a pure index of accuracy by demonstrating the limits of a test's ability to discriminate between alternative states of health over the complete spectrum of operating conditions.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models
Alan H. Fielding,John Bell +1 more
TL;DR: Thirteen recommendations are made to enable the objective selection of an error assessment technique for ecological presence/absence models and a new approach to estimating prediction error, which is based on the spatial characteristics of the errors, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Basic principles of ROC analysis
TL;DR: ROC analysis is shown to be related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making and the concepts of "average diagnostic cost" and "average net benefit" are developed and used to identify the optimal compromise among various kinds of diagnostic error.
Journal ArticleDOI
Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene
TL;DR: A series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs /GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6 � /11 August 2001 are introduced.
Related Papers (5)
Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more