Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
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TLDR
The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period, indicating that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset and that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.Citations
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Estimation of Some Epidemiological Parameters With the COVID-19 Data of Mayotte
TL;DR: In this article , a fit of the probability distribution which underlines the serial interval distribution of the COVID-19 on a given set of data collected on the viral shedding in patients with laboratory-confirmed is studied.
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Machine Learning Algorithms to Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors proposed a real-time out of sample forecast of the future COVID-19 confirmed and death cases respectively for the top five mostly affected countries in the world namely USA, India, Brazil, Russia and UK.
Posted ContentDOI
Direct modelling from GPS data reveals daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a model that enables quantitative estimations of the infection risk for individual places and activities by using smartphone GPS data for the Tokyo metropolitan area, where the effective reproduction number is directly calculated from the number of infectious social contacts defined by the square of the population density at each location.
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Discrete spread model for COVID-19: the case of Lebanon
Ayman Mourad,Fatima Kamel Mroue +1 more
TL;DR: Understanding the role of the parameters involved in the models help policy makers in deciding the appropriate mitigation measures and paves the way for models that take into account societal factors and complex human behavior without an extensive process of data collection.
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Accounting for the Potential of Overdispersion in Estimation of the Time-varying Reproduction Number
Janusz Kocik,Michael D. Reiter +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper , a negative binomial framework was developed to estimate the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) and the dispersion parameter (kt) in COVID-19 incidence data in Hong Kong in 2020 and 2021.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany.
Camilla Rothe,Mirjam Schunk,Peter Sothmann,Gisela Bretzel,Guenter Froeschl,Claudia Wallrauch,Thorbjörn Zimmer,Verena Thiel,Christian Janke,Wolfgang Guggemos,M Seilmaier,Christian Drosten,Patrick Vollmar,Katrin Zwirglmaier,Sabine Zange,Roman Wölfel,Michael Hoelscher +16 more
TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Natalie M. Linton,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Yichi Yang,Katsuma Hayashi,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung,Baoyin Yuan,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
TL;DR: The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.
Journal ArticleDOI
Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable.
TL;DR: It is concluded that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
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