Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
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TLDR
The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period, indicating that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset and that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.Citations
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An agent-based modelling framework for assessing SARS-CoV-2 indoor airborne transmission risk
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors developed a framework for modelling the risk of infection from airborne Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in well-mixed environments in the presence of interventions designed to reduce infection risk.
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Analysis of COVID19 Outbreak in India using SEIR model.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors tried to predict the number of active, recovered, death and total cases of COVID19 in India using generalized SEIR model and found that the occurrence of peak in the active cases curve has a very close match with the peak in real data (difference of only one week).
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Paradigm shift e-learning and technology transformation UP-CYCLE Rustic Wood during the Covid-19 pandemic
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors describe the phenomenon of the e-learning paradigm shift in the world of education and design innovation strategies on Rustic Wood UP-CYCLE Products in Indonesia.
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Safe return to elective surgery following a COVID-19 outbreak: an observational study
Akihiro Aoyama,Hiroshi Yamazaki,Atsushi Yoshida,Hayato Maruoka,Seiko Nasu,Yumi Shiroishi,Masaaki Eto,Takeharu Ibaraki,Noboru Okuuchi,Hirokazu Kuroda,Toshikazu Hasuike,Asako Doi,Kazuma Yunoki,Naoki Higashibeppu,Ryo Tachikawa,Keisuke Tomii,Reiichi Ishikura,Hiroyuki Mima,Yutaka Takahashi,Yasushi Naito,Shogo Shinohara,Nobuyuki Sakai,Satoshi Kaihara,Yasuki Kihara +23 more
TL;DR: With 2-week avoidance of nonessential outings before admission for surgery, combined with reverse transcriptase PCR and chest CT shortly before admission, a retrospective study successfully resumed elective surgeries, confirmed by PCR of extubated tracheal tube swabs, at a hospital that experienced a COVID-19 outbreak.
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Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study a simple model of epidemic dynamics separating the population into two groups, namely a low-risk group and a high risk group, for which different strategies are pursued.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany.
Camilla Rothe,Mirjam Schunk,Peter Sothmann,Gisela Bretzel,Guenter Froeschl,Claudia Wallrauch,Thorbjörn Zimmer,Verena Thiel,Christian Janke,Wolfgang Guggemos,M Seilmaier,Christian Drosten,Patrick Vollmar,Katrin Zwirglmaier,Sabine Zange,Roman Wölfel,Michael Hoelscher +16 more
TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Natalie M. Linton,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Yichi Yang,Katsuma Hayashi,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung,Baoyin Yuan,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
TL;DR: The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.
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Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable.
TL;DR: It is concluded that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
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