Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
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TLDR
The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period, indicating that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset and that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.Citations
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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.
Chen Xu,Yinqiao Dong,Xiaoyue Yu,Huwen Wang,Lhakpa Tsamlag,Shuxian Zhang,Ruijie Chang,Zezhou Wang,Yuelin Yu,Rusi Long,Ying Wang,Gang Xu,Tian Shen,Suping Wang,Xinxin Zhang,Hui Wang,Yong Cai +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors calculated basic reproduction number (R0) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively.
Journal ArticleDOI
Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 Outbreak at Fitness Centers in Cheonan, Korea.
Sanghyuk Bae,Hwami Kim,Tae Young Jung,Ji Ae Lim,Da Hye Jo,Gi Seok Kang,Seung Hee Jeong,Dong Kwon Choi,Hye-Jin Kim,Young Hee Cheon,Min Kyo Chun,Mi Young Kim,Siwon Choi,Chaemin Chun,Seung Hwan Shin,Hee Kyoung Kim,Young Joon Park,Ok Young Park,Ho Jang Kwon +18 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that the COVID-19 outbreak was effectively contained with rigorous contact tracing, isolating, and testing in combination with social distancing without a lock-down.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
Matthew Biggerstaff,Benjamin J. Cowling,Zulma M. Cucunubá,Linh Dinh,Neil M. Ferguson,Huizhi Gao,Verity Hill,Natsuko Imai,Michael A. Johansson,Sarah Kada,Oliver Morgan,Ana Pastore y Piontti,Jonathan A. Polonsky,Pragati V. Prasad,Talia M. Quandelacy,Andrew Rambaut,Jordan W Tappero,Katelijn Vandemaele,Alessandro Vespignani,K Lane Warmbrod,Jessica Y. Wong +20 more
TL;DR: Key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports are reported, indicating parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions.
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Transmission dynamics of monkeypox in the United Kingdom: contact tracing study
TL;DR: In this article , the authors analyzed the transmission dynamics of the monkeypox outbreak in the UK, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in July 2022, using two bayesian time delay models: corrected for interval censoring (ICC) and corrected for right truncation, and epidemic phase bias (ICRTC).
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On the relationship between serial interval, infectiousness profile and generation time.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the impact of the variance of the generation time distribution on the controllability of an epidemic through strategies based on contact tracing, and show that underestimating this variance is likely to overestimate controLLability.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany.
Camilla Rothe,Mirjam Schunk,Peter Sothmann,Gisela Bretzel,Guenter Froeschl,Claudia Wallrauch,Thorbjörn Zimmer,Verena Thiel,Christian Janke,Wolfgang Guggemos,M Seilmaier,Christian Drosten,Patrick Vollmar,Katrin Zwirglmaier,Sabine Zange,Roman Wölfel,Michael Hoelscher +16 more
TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Natalie M. Linton,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Yichi Yang,Katsuma Hayashi,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung,Baoyin Yuan,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
TL;DR: The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.
Journal ArticleDOI
Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable.
TL;DR: It is concluded that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
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