Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period, indicating that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset and that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimating the Serial Interval of the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Statistical Analysis Using the Public Data in Hong Kong From January 16 to February 15, 2020
Shi Zhao,Daozhou Gao,Zian Zhuang,Marc K. C. Chong,Yongli Cai,Jinjun Ran,Peihua Cao,Kai Wang,Yijun Lou,Weiming Wang,Lin Yang,Daihai He,Maggie Haitian Wang +12 more
TL;DR: Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are crucially needed in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evidence of Long-Distance Droplet Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Direct Air Flow in a Restaurant in Korea.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors implemented an epidemiological investigation based on personal interviews and data collection on closed-circuit television images, and cell phone location data, and found that droplet transmission can occur at a distance greater than 2 m if there is direct air flow from an infected person.
Posted ContentDOI
Quantifying Asymptomatic Infection and Transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using Observed Cases, Serology and Testing Capacity
TL;DR: Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, it is shown that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed, and current assumptions about the basic reproductive number of SARS-Cov-2 should be reconsidered.
Posted ContentDOI
Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City: China, 2019-2020
TL;DR: Estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China during January-February, 2020 are derived by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources using an ecological modelling approach.
Posted ContentDOI
Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics
Ricardo Aguas,Rodrigo M. Corder,Jessica G. King,Guilherme Gonçalves,Marcelo U. Ferreira,M. Gabriela M. Gomes,M. Gabriela M. Gomes +6 more
TL;DR: Herd immunity thresholds are found, considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination, and have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany.
Camilla Rothe,Mirjam Schunk,Peter Sothmann,Gisela Bretzel,Guenter Froeschl,Claudia Wallrauch,Thorbjörn Zimmer,Verena Thiel,Christian Janke,Wolfgang Guggemos,M Seilmaier,Christian Drosten,Patrick Vollmar,Katrin Zwirglmaier,Sabine Zange,Roman Wölfel,Michael Hoelscher +16 more
TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Natalie M. Linton,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Yichi Yang,Katsuma Hayashi,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung,Baoyin Yuan,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
TL;DR: The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.
Journal ArticleDOI
Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable.
TL;DR: It is concluded that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
Related Papers (5)
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19.
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
Adam J. Kucharski,Timothy W Russell,Charlie Diamond,Yang Liu,John Edmunds,Sebastian Funk,Rosalind M Eggo,Fiona Yueqian Sun,Mark Jit,James D Munday,Nicholas G Davies,Amy Gimma,Kevin van Zandvoort,Hamish Gibbs,Joel Hellewell,Christopher I Jarvis,Samuel Clifford,Billy J Quilty,Nikos I Bosse,Sam Abbott,Petra Klepac,Stefan Flasche +21 more