The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China.
TLDR
Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning, and non-pharmaceutical interventions play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic.Abstract:
COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn’t stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic. We compared Italy’s status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic. Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review.
TL;DR: A review of the literature written on the subject of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic can be found in this paper, where the authors classified the sample into seven main categories: epidemic models, surveys, comments/perspectives, papers aiming to quantify the effects of NPIs, reviews, articles using data proxies to measure NPIs and publicly available datasets describing NPIs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review
TL;DR: The vast literature written on the subject of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic is reviewed and the methodology, data used, findings of the articles in each category, and an outlook highlighting future challenges as well as opportunities are summarized.
Journal ArticleDOI
The europe second wave of COVID-19 infection and the Italy "strange" situation.
TL;DR: In this article, a comparison of the imposed restrictions in the considered Countries allows to highlight that some policies result more effective to limit the virus spread and that the imposed constraints and the people capacities to receive them are fundamental parameters that must be always accounted in the determination of the virus expansion.
Posted ContentDOI
COVID-19 optimal vaccination policies: a modeling study on efficacy, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses
TL;DR: An optimal controlled model is formulated to describe vaccination policies that minimize the burden of COVID-19 quantified by the number of disability-adjusted years of life lost, and suggests that response regarding vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity would play a dominant role in the vaccination policy design.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Shabnam Iezadi,Kamal Gholipour,Saber Azami-Aghdash,Akbar Ghiasi,Aziz Rezapour,Hamid Pourasghari,Fariba Pashazadeh +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions (NPHI) on the spread of the COVID-19 virus were examined in countries where NPHIs have been implemented.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Christian Drosten,Stephan Günther,Wolfgang Preiser,Sylvie van der Werf,H. R. Brodt,Stephan Becker,Holger F. Rabenau,Marcus Panning,Larissa Kolesnikova,Ron A. M. Fouchier,Annemarie Berger,Ana-Maria Burguière,Jindrich Cinatl,Markus Eickmann,Nicolas Escriou,Klaus Grywna,Stefanie Kramme,Jean-Claude Manuguerra,Stefanie Müller,Volker Rickerts,Martin Stürmer,Simon Vieth,Hans-Dieter Klenk,Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus,Herbert Schmitz,Hans Wilhelm Doerr +25 more
TL;DR: The novel coronavirus might have a role in causing SARS and was detected in a variety of clinical specimens from patients with SARS but not in controls.
Journal ArticleDOI
A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Thomas G. Ksiazek,Dean D. Erdman,Cynthia S. Goldsmith,Zaki,Teresa C. T. Peret,Shannon L. Emery,Suxiang Tong,Urbani C,James A. Comer,Wilina Lim,Pierre E. Rollin,Scott F. Dowell,Ai Ee Ling,Charles D. Humphrey,Wun-Ju Shieh,Jeannette Guarner,Christopher D. Paddock,Paul A. Rota,Barry S. Fields,Joseph L. DeRisi,Jyh-Yuan Yang,Nancy J. Cox,James M. Hughes,James W. LeDuc,William J. Bellini,Larry J. Anderson +25 more
TL;DR: A novel coronavirus is associated with this outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, and the evidence indicates that this virus has an etiologic role in SARS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses
Jie Cui,Fang Li,Zhengli Shi +2 more
TL;DR: The viral factors that enabled the emergence of diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome are explored and the diversity and potential of bat-borne coronaviruses are highlighted.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
TL;DR: It is inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks, and that other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Coronavirus as a possible cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome
Jsm Peiris,Sik To Lai,Llm Poon,Yi Guan,Lyc Yam,Wilina Lim,John M. Nicholls,Wks Yee,WW Yan,MT Cheung,V. C. C. Cheng,KH Chan,Dnc Tsang,R Yung,Ting Kin Ng,KY Yuen +15 more
TL;DR: Serological and molecular tests specific for the virus permitted a definitive laboratory diagnosis to be made and allowed further investigation to define whether other cofactors play a part in disease progression.
Related Papers (5)
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Chia-Hung Yang,Bernardo Gutierrez,Bernardo Gutierrez,Chieh-Hsi Wu,Brennan Klein,David M. Pigott,Louis du Plessis,Nuno R. Faria,Ruoran Li,William P. Hanage,John S. Brownstein,John S. Brownstein,Maylis Layan,Maylis Layan,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani,Huaiyu Tian,Christopher Dye,Oliver G. Pybus,Oliver G. Pybus,Samuel V. Scarpino +23 more