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The field theoretical ABC of epidemic dynamics

TLDR
In this article, a review of mathematical models of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries is presented.
Abstract
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late 2019. It is therefore imperative to develop efficient mathematical models, able to substantially curb the damages of a pandemic by unveiling disease spreading dynamics and symmetries. This will help inform (non)-pharmaceutical prevention strategies. For the reasons above we wrote this report that goes at the heart of mathematical modelling of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries naturally encoded in the mathematical language of critical phenomena. Our report reviews these approaches and determines their common denominators, relevant for theoretical epidemiology and its link to important concepts in theoretical physics. We show that the different frameworks exhibit common features such as criticality and self-similarity under time rescaling. These features are naturally encoded within the unifying field theoretical approach. The latter leads to an efficient description of the time evolution of the disease via a framework in which (near) time-dilation invariance is explicitly realised. As important test of the relevance of symmetries we show how to mathematically account for observed phenomena such as multi-wave dynamics. The models presented here are of immediate relevance for different realms of scientific enquiry from medical applications to the understanding of human behaviour. Our review offers novel perspectives on how to model, capture, organise and understand epidemiological data and disease dynamics for modelling real-world phenomena.

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Variant-driven multi-wave pattern of COVID-19 via Machine Learning clustering of spike protein mutations

TL;DR: In this article, a machine learning algorithm yielding a temporal clustering of the available dataset was designed to identify and define emerging persistent variants that are in agreement with known evidences and to highlight emerging variants of epidemiological interest as branching events that occur over time.
Journal ArticleDOI

The mathematics of multiple lockdowns.

Antonio Scala
- 13 Apr 2021 - 
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the impact of lockdown strategies on the evolution of an epidemic and show that repeated lockdowns have a beneficial effect, reducing the final size of the infection, and that they represent a possible support strategy to vaccination policies.
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Epidemiological theory of virus variants

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics.
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Variant-driven multi-wave pattern of COVID-19 via a Machine Learning analysis of spike protein mutations.

TL;DR: In this paper, the temporal variability of the Spike protein sequence has been used to identify, classify and track emerging virus variants, which can be used as an early warning system for the emergence of new persistent variants that may pose a threat of triggering a new wave of COVID-19.
Posted ContentDOI

Effective Mathematical Modelling of Health Passes During a Pandemic

TL;DR: In this article, the authors study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease.
References
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Three kinds of TVS in a SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission

TL;DR: In this article, three different vaccination and treatment strategies in the SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission are analyzed, and the dynamics of epidemic models are globally investigated by using Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equation.
Journal ArticleDOI

Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics as a Time-Dependent SIR Model

TL;DR: A better understanding of the time dependence of the recovery rate would require extending the model to take into account the number of deaths whenever these are over 15% of the cumulative number of infected cases.
Journal ArticleDOI

Epidemics of plant diseases : mathematical analysis and modelling

P. H. Gregory, +1 more
- 01 Jan 1976 - 
TL;DR: This volume contains papers presenting the status of mathematical and statistical methods in use for the analysis and modelling of plant disease epidemics and new chapters on the modelling of the spreading of diseases in air and in soil are included.
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