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The field theoretical ABC of epidemic dynamics

TLDR
In this article, a review of mathematical models of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries is presented.
Abstract
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late 2019. It is therefore imperative to develop efficient mathematical models, able to substantially curb the damages of a pandemic by unveiling disease spreading dynamics and symmetries. This will help inform (non)-pharmaceutical prevention strategies. For the reasons above we wrote this report that goes at the heart of mathematical modelling of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries naturally encoded in the mathematical language of critical phenomena. Our report reviews these approaches and determines their common denominators, relevant for theoretical epidemiology and its link to important concepts in theoretical physics. We show that the different frameworks exhibit common features such as criticality and self-similarity under time rescaling. These features are naturally encoded within the unifying field theoretical approach. The latter leads to an efficient description of the time evolution of the disease via a framework in which (near) time-dilation invariance is explicitly realised. As important test of the relevance of symmetries we show how to mathematically account for observed phenomena such as multi-wave dynamics. The models presented here are of immediate relevance for different realms of scientific enquiry from medical applications to the understanding of human behaviour. Our review offers novel perspectives on how to model, capture, organise and understand epidemiological data and disease dynamics for modelling real-world phenomena.

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Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a simple two-parameter model called the Blue Sky model to predict the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and showed that one class of transmission dynamics can be explained by a solution that lives at the edge of a blue sky bifurcation.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics

TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
Book

Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control

TL;DR: This book discusses the biology of host-microparasite associations, dynamics of acquired immunity heterogeneity within the human community indirectly transmitted helminths, and the ecology and genetics of hosts and parasites.
Journal ArticleDOI

Percolation and Conduction

TL;DR: In this article, an extension of percolation theory to treat transport is described, and a general expression for the conductance of such networks is derived, which relates to the spin-stiffness coefficient of dilute ferromagnet.
Book

Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals

TL;DR: Mathematical modeling of infectious dis-eases has progressed dramatically over the past 3 decades and continues to be a valuable tool at the nexus of mathematics, epidemiol-ogy, and infectious diseases research.
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