Open AccessPosted Content
Epidemiological theory of virus variants
Giacomo Cacciapaglia,Corentin Cot,Adele de Hoffer,Stefan Hohenegger,Francesco Sannino,Shahram Vatani +5 more
TLDR
In this paper, the authors propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics.Abstract:
We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalization Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.read more
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Variant-driven multi-wave pattern of COVID-19 via Machine Learning clustering of spike protein mutations
Adele de Hoffer,Shahram Vatani,Corentin Cot,Giacomo Cacciapaglia,Francesco Conventi,Antonio Giannini,Stefan Hohenegger,Francesco Sannino +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, a machine learning algorithm yielding a temporal clustering of the available dataset was designed to identify and define emerging persistent variants that are in agreement with known evidences and to highlight emerging variants of epidemiological interest as branching events that occur over time.
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The field theoretical ABC of epidemic dynamics
Giacomo Cacciapaglia,Corentin Cot,Michele Della Morte,Stefan Hohenegger,Francesco Sannino,Shahram Vatani +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, a review of mathematical models of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries is presented.
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Effective Mathematical Modelling of Health Passes During a Pandemic
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease.
References
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