Showing papers on "Algorithmic trading published in 2006"

Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative Value Arbitrage Rule

Abstract: We test a Wall Street investment strategy, pairs trading, with daily data over 1962-2002. Stocks are matched into pairs with minimum distance between normalized historical prices. A simple trading rule yields average annualized excess returns of up to 11 percent for selffinancing portfolios of pairs. The profits typically exceed conservative transaction costs estimates. Bootstrap results suggest that the pairs effect differs from previously-documented reversal profits. Robustness of the excess returns indicates that pairs trading profits from temporary mis-pricing of close substitutes. We link the profitability to the presence of a common factor in the returns, different from conventional risk measures.

A Price is a Social Thing: Towards a Material Sociology of Arbitrage

Abstract: Arbitrage is a form of trading crucial both to the modern theory of finance and to market practice, yet it has seldom been the focus of study outside of economics. This article draws upon four initially separate ethnographic and interview-based studies to sketch a ‘material sociology’ of arbitrage. (The article follows financial market usage in viewing ‘arbitrage’ as trading that exploits discrepancies in relative prices, trading which is seldom the entirely riskless arbitrage posited by finance theory.) Prices are physical entities, and the extent and speed of the mobility of these entities are crucial to arbitrage. Traders' bodies sometimes need to be trained to conduct arbitrage, and the relative placement of different bodies can be crucial. Arbitrage generally involves a theory of the similarity of different assets, and material representations of relative value are often required in order to check the theory's plausibility. Arbitrageurs need to convince themselves and others such as investment-bank m...

Trading Tools for Electronic Trading

Abstract: Tools for trading and monitoring a commodity on an electronic exchange using a graphical user interface and a user input device. The tools will aid the trader in determining the status, trends in the market, and the trader's position in the market. Included is a system and method for displaying an indicator representing market information for a commodity in a display region of a graphical user interface. The system and method further includes linking a software application configured for computing a specific price to a second display region of the graphical user interface, and displaying a second indicator in a second display region of the graphical user interface. The second indicator moves relative to the price axis when the specific price changes.

Money and Stock Prices

Abstract: This paper examines stock market efficiency with respect to money supply data by testing (1) regression models of stock returns on monetary variables and (2) trading rules based on money supply data. The evidence indicates no meaningful lag in the effect of monetary policy on the stock market and that no profitable trading rules using past values of the money supply exist. Therefore this evidence is consistent with the efficient market model. Current security returns incorporate all information contained in past money supply data and, in addition, appear to anticipate future changes in the money supply. A number of previous studies have concluded that lags exist and can be used in profitable trading rules. Analysis of these studies demonstrates that for a variety of reasons the evidence in these past studies does not sustain such conclusions.

Automation versus Intermediation: Evidence from Treasuries Going Off the Run

Abstract: This paper examines the choice of trading venue by dealers in U.S. Treasury securities to determine when services provided by human intermediaries are difficult to replicate in fully automated trading systems. When Treasury securities go “off the run” their trading volume drops by more than 90%. This decline in trading volume allows us to test whether intermediaries’ knowledge of the market and its participants can uncover hidden liquidity and facilitate better matching of customer orders in less active markets. Consistent with this hypothesis, the market share of electronic intermediaries falls from 81% to 12% when securities go off the run. ELECTRONIC TRADING SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN steadily increasing their share of securities trading in almost all financial markets. As the amount of automation in financial markets increases, it is natural to ask what services human intermediaries provide that are difficult or impossible to replicate in a fully automated trading system. Existing theory suggests that human intermediaries play at least two important functions. First, an intermediary’s knowledge of the market and its participants may uncover hidden liquidity that facilitates quicker and more efficient matching of customer orders (Grossman (1992)). The value of this matching function is greater when trading volume is low and matches are difficult to find. Second, when information asymmetry is high, the repeated interaction between an intermediary and its customers allows the intermediary to protect itself against informed trades and offer better prices to its customers (Seppi (1990)). These two factors explain, for example, why electronic communications networks (ECNs) have a greater market share for the largest and most actively traded Nasdaq stocks while Nasdaq market makers have a larger share in smaller, less liquid stocks characterized by greater information asymmetry (Barclay, Hendershott, and McCormick (2003)), and why NYSE specialists have higher participation rates in smaller, less liquid stocks (Madhavan and Sofianos (1998)).

Electronic Trading in Stock Markets

Abstract: In this article, I examine how electronic trading has altered stock markets. I begin with an overview of how the stock trading process works and then address a number of questions. How have the jobs of traditional stock market dealers on the NYSE and on Nasdaq been affected by electronic trading? How do electronic communications networks differ from traditional markets? How has electronic trading affected bid-ask spreads and commission costs? What subtle issues arise in electronic trading when dealer and customer interests diverge? Will computer programs replace human judgment? What is the effect of electronic trading on the number and types of securities markets? What is the role of regulation in electronic markets?

Stock Trading Using RSPOP: A Novel Rough Set-Based Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Abstract: This paper investigates the method of forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data using neuro-fuzzy systems and neural networks. As trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, this paper proposes a novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy stock trading decision model called stock trading using rough set-based pseudo outer-product (RSPOP) which synergizes the price difference forecast method with a forecast bottleneck free trading decision model. The proposed stock trading with forecast model uses the pseudo outer-product based fuzzy neural network using the compositional rule of inference [POPFNN-CRI(S)] with fuzzy rules identified using the RSPOP algorithm as the underlying predictor model and simple moving average trading rules in the stock trading decision model. Experimental results using the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model on real world stock market data are presented. Trading profits in terms of portfolio end values obtained are benchmarked against stock trading with dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) forecast model, the stock trading without forecast model and the stock trading with ideal forecast model. Experimental results showed that the proposed model identified rules with greater interpretability and yielded significantly higher profits than the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model and the stock trading without forecast model

Foreign Equity Trading and Emerging Market Volatility: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand

Abstract: This paper documents a strong contemporaneous relationship between foreign equity trading and market volatility in Indonesia and Thailand. Although foreign selling accounts for only a small portion of daily trading, it has the highest explanatory power for market volatility in both countries. Trading within foreign and local investor groups is often negatively related to volatility. The findings are robust to different sub-periods and different measures for volatility and trading activities. We explore two economic explanations for the asymmetric effects of foreign and local investors.

Managing Price Risk in a Multimarket Environment

Abstract: In a competitive electricity market, a generation company (Genco) can manage its trading risk through trading electricity among multiple markets such as spot markets and contract markets The question is how to decide the trading proportion of each market in order to maximize the Genco's profit and minimize the associated risk Based on the mean-variance portfolio theory, this paper proposes a sequential optimization approach to electric energy allocation between spot and contract markets, taking into consideration the risks of electricity price, congestion charge, and fuel price Especially, the impact of the fuel market on electric energy allocation is analyzed and simulated with historical data in respect of the electricity market and other fuel markets in the US Simulation results confirm that the proposed analytic approach is consistent with intuition and therefore reasonable and feasible for a Genco to make a trading plan involving risks in an electricity market

Systems and methods for providing investment opportunities

Abstract: The invention relates to methods and systems for providing investment competitions. In one aspect, trading algorithms that automatically generate trading instructions in response to market data are developed by and received from a distributed plurality of independent trading algorithm developers. The algorithms are periodically executed against market data and generate trading instructions, which, based on an association of investment accounts with the trading algorithms, initiate correlative trades in the investments accounts.

Loss protection in pairs trading through minimum profit bounds: A cointegration approach

Abstract: Pairs trading is a comparative-value form of statistical arbitrage designed to exploit temporary random departures from equilibrium pricing between two shares. However, the strategy is not riskless. Market events as well as poor statistical modeling and parameter estimation may all erode potential profits. Since conventional loss limiting trading strategies are costly, a preferable situation is to integrate loss limitation within the statistical modeling itself. This paper uses cointegration principles to develop a procedure that embeds a minimum profit condition within a pairs trading strategy. We derive the necessary conditions for such a procedure and then use them to define and implement a five-step procedure for identifying eligible trades. The statistical validity of the procedure is verified through simulation data. Practicality is tested through actual data. The results show that, at reasonable minimum profit levels, the protocol does not greatly reduce trade numbers or absolute profits relative to an unprotected trading strategy.

On the Evolution of Market Institutions: The Platform Design Paradox

Abstract: We study competition among market designers who create new trading platforms, when boundedly rational traders learn to select among them. We ask whether efficient platforms, leading to market - clearing trading outcomes, will dominate the market in the long run. If several market designers are competing, we find that traders learn to select non-market clearing platforms with prices systematically above the market-clearing level, provided at least one such platform is introduced by a market designer. This in turn leads market designers to introduce non-market clearing platforms. Hence platform competition induces non-competitive market outcomes.

The Predictive Power of “Head-and-Shoulders” Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market

Abstract: We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo et al. (2000) with some modifications to determine whether "head-and-shoulders" price patterns have predictive power for future stock returns. The modifications include the use of filters based on typical price patterns identified by a technical analyst. With data from the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 over the period 1990-1999 we find little or no support for the profitability of a stand-alone trading strategy. But we do find strong evidence that the pattern had power to predict excess returns. Risk-adjusted excess returns to a trading strategy conditioned on "head-and-shoulders" price patterns are 5-7 percent per year. Combining the strategy with the market portfolio produces a significant increase in excess return for a fixed level of risk exposure.

Multiple quote risk management

Abstract: The disclosed systems and methods relate to allowing trading of over the counter (“OTC”) foreign exchange (“FX”) contracts on a centralized matching and clearing mechanism, such as that of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (“CME”'s) futures exchange system (the “Exchange”). The disclosed systems and methods allow for anonymous transactions, centralized clearing, efficient settlement and the provision of risk management/credit screening mechanisms to lower risk, reduce transaction costs and improve the liquidity in the FX market place. In particular, the disclosed embodiments increase speed of execution facilitating growing demand for algorithmic trading, increased price transparency, lower cost of trading, customer to customer trading, and automated asset allocations, recurring trades as well as clearing and settlement efficiencies.

How Widespread Was Late Trading in Mutual Funds

Abstract: This paper uses daily fund flow data to examine the extent of late trading in the U.S. mutual fund industry. Trading decisions that are required by law to have been made before 4 PM Eastern Time are correlated with market movements from 4 to 9 PM that evening. The cross- sectional variation in this correlation is consistent with late trading being its primary cause and inconsistent with alternative explanations. For example, apparent late trading ceases in September 2003 after the announcement of the investigation into mutual fund trading practices, it is three times greater in fund families that have been cited by regulators for allowing late trading, and it is greater in funds and asset classes that are also receiving heavy stale price arbitrage flows. In my sample, which includes 75 percent of non-specialized equity mutual funds and 48 percent of assets, late trading led to average annual shareholder dilution from 1998 to 2003 of 3.8 and 0.9 basis points in international and U.S. equity funds, respectively. If these dilution rates prevailed industry wide, they would imply shareholder losses of about $400 million per year. Furthermore, there is statistically significant evidence of late trading in the funds of 39 of 66 fund families.

Bayesian Adaptive Trading with a Daily Cycle

Abstract: Standard models of algorithmic trading neglect the presence of a daily cycle. We construct a model in which the trader uses information from observations of price evolution during the day to continuously update his estimate of other traders9 target sizes and directions. He uses this information to determine an optimal trade schedule to minimize total expected cost of trading, subject to sign constraints (never buy as part of a sell program). We argue that although these strategies are determined using very simple dynamic reasoning—at each moment they assume that current conditions will last until the end of trading—they are in fact the globally optimal strategies as would be determined by dynamic programming.

The Effect of Crossing-Network Trading on Dealer Market's Bid-Ask Spreads

Abstract: This article provides new insights into market competition between traditional exchanges and alternative trading systems in Europe. It investigates the relationship between the trading activity of a crossing network (CN) and the liquidity of a traditional dealer market (DM) by comparing data from the SEAQ quote-driven segment of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and internal data from the POSIT crossing network. A cross-sectional analysis of bid-ask spreads shows that DM spreads are negatively related to CN executions. Risk-sharing benefits from CN trading dominate fragmentation and cream-skimming costs. Further, risk-sharing gains are found to be related to dealer trading in the CN.

The Effect of Crossing-Network Trading on Dealer Market's Bid-Ask Spreads

Abstract: This article provides new insights into market competition between traditional exchanges and alternative trading systems in Europe. It investigates the relationship between the trading activity of a crossing network (CN) and the liquidity of a traditional dealer market (DM) by comparing data from the SEAQ quote-driven segment of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and internal data from the POSIT crossing network. A cross-sectional analysis of bid-ask spreads shows that DM spreads are negatively related to CN executions. Risk-sharing benefits from CN trading dominate fragmentation and cream-skimming costs. Further, risk-sharing gains are found to be related to dealer trading in the CN.

Price discovery in the foreign exchange futures market

Abstract: Examination is made of the relative contributions to price discovery of the floor and electronically traded euro FX and Japanese yen futures markets and the corresponding retail on-line foreign exchange spot markets. GLOBEX electronic futures contracts provide the most price discovery in the euro; the on-line trading spot market provides the most in the Japanese yen. The floor-traded futures markets contribute the least to price discovery in both the euro and the Japanese yen markets. The overall results show that electronic trading platforms facilitate price discovery more efficiently than floor trading. Futures traders may also extract information from on-line spot prices. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1131–1143, 2006

The Transition to Electronic Communications Networks in the Secondary Treasury Market

Abstract: This article reviews the history of the recent shift to electronic trading in equity, foreign exchange, and fixed-income markets. The authors analyze a new data set: the eSpeed electronic Treasury network. They contrast the market microstructure of the eSpeed trading platform with the traditional voice-assisted networks that report through GovPX. The electronic market (eSpeed) has greater volume, smaller spreads, and a lower estimated trade impact than the voice market (GovPX). ; Appeared earlier as Working Paper 2006-012

Designing safe, profitable automated stock trading agents using evolutionary algorithms

Abstract: Trading rules are widely used by practitioners as an effective means to mechanize aspects of their reasoning about stock price trends. However, due to the simplicity of these rules, each rule is susceptible to poor behavior in specific types of adverse market conditions. Naive combinations of such rules are not very effective in mitigating the weaknesses of component rules. We demonstrate that sophisticated approaches to combining these trading rules enable us to overcome these problems and gainfully utilize them in autonomous agents. We achieve this combination through the use of genetic algorithms and genetic programs. Further, we show that it is possible to use qualitative characterizations of stochastic dynamics to improve the performance of these agents by delineating safe, or feasible, regions. We present the results of experiments conducted within the Penn-Lehman Automated Trading project. In this way we are able to demonstrate that autonomous agents can achieve consistent profitability in a variety of market conditions, in ways that are human competitive.

Detection of intra-firm matching and response thereto

Abstract: The disclosed systems and methods relate to allowing trading of over the counter ('OTC') foreign exchange ('FX') contracts on a centralized matching and clearing mechanism, such as that of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's ('CME''s) futures exchange system (the 'Exchange'). The disclosed systems and methods allow for anonymous transactions, centralized clearing, efficient settlement and the provision of risk management/credit screening mechanisms to lower risk, reduce transaction costs and improve the liquidity in the FX market place. In particular, the disclosed embodiments increase speed of execution facilitating growing demand for algorithmic trading, increased price transparency, lower cost of trading, customer to customer trading, and automated asset allocations, recurring trades as well as clearing and settlement efficiencies.

Managing the risk of trading wind energy in a competitive market

Abstract: There is a high level of financial risk associated with the direct participation of wind generation in liberalised electricity markets, due to the stochastic nature of output and imbalance charges set by market prices. The positioning of generation with respect to the market is therefore critical to successful trading activities. Examined is the use of risk characterisation to select the best output level for a wind generator to trade, dependant on maximising revenue and managing marginal costs from imbalances in a competitive market situation. Trading strategies based on utility risk assessment are presented as a possible way to improve market participation for wind generators based on these criteria.

The Empirical Relationship between Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume in the Brazilian Stock Market

Abstract: We investigate the empirical relationship between stock returns, return volatility and trading volume using data from the Brazilian stock market (Bovespa). Our sample contains stock return and trading volume data from a theoretical portfolio including stocks participating in the Bovespa Index (Ibovespa) extending from 01/03/2000 through 12/29/2005. The empirical methods used include cross-correlation analysis, unit-root tests, bivariate simultaneous equations regression analysis, GARCH modeling, VAR modeling, and Granger causality tests. We find support for a contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume, implying that forecasts of one of these variables can be only slightly improved by knowledge of the other. On the other hand, our results indicate that there is a contemporaneous and dynamic relationship between return volatility and trading volume. Additionally, by applying Granger's test for causality, we find that return volatility contains information about upcoming trading volume and vice versa.

Informational Linkages Across Trading Regions: Evidence from Foreign Exchange Markets

Abstract: This paper studies informational linkages in the foreign exchange market across trading regions for the euro-dollar and dollar-yen currency pairs, using high-frequency intraday data from Electronic Broking Services (EBS). In contrast with previous studies that use indicative quote frequency to proxy for trading activity, we use actual regional trading volume to identify five distinct trading regions in the foreign exchange market: Asia Pacific, the Asia-Europe overlap, Europe, the Europe-America overlap, and America. We study spillovers in five proxies for information, including return, direction of return, volatility, trading activity (trading volume and number of transactions), and order flow, across the five trading regions. Based on our regional model for each proxy variable, we find statistically significant evidence for informational linkages at both the own-region and the inter-region levels, but the economic significance of own-region spillovers is much more important than that of inter-region spillovers, especially for volatility and trading activity. In addition, order flow spillovers from the Europe-America overlap trading region are the most important source of spillovers to other trading regions for both currency pairs.

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

Abstract: This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.

System and methods for creating, trading, and settling currency futures contracts

Abstract: The present invention provides for an electronic exchange that provides a marketplace for the trading and settling of currency futures contracts, having methods and systems that include features such as an enhanced execution facility, clearing facility and futures contracts to facilitate such market without the disadvantages of the existing foreign exchange market centers and currency futures contract markets.