Showing papers on "Boom published in 2019"

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

Abstract: An increase in credit supply driven by looser lending constraints in the mortgage market is the key force behind four empirical features of the housing boom before the Great Recession: the unpreced...

From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run

Abstract: This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In doing so, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) real commodity prices have been on the rise—albeit modestly—from 1950; (2) there is a pattern—in both past and present—of commodity price cycles, entailing large and long-lived deviations from underlying trends; (3) these commodity price cycles are themselves punctuated by boom/bust episodes which are historically pervasive.

Firm Financing over the Business Cycle

Abstract: Firm financing is the link between financial markets and the real economy. In this paper, we investigate how firm financing depends on the state of the economy. Using Compustat data, we look at the external financing decisions of firms over the business cycle. We find that firm financing is cyclical, but that the cyclicality depends on size. Whereas large firms seem to substitute between debt and equity financing over the business cycle, small firms are unable to do so, increasing financing in good times and reducing it in bad. More importantly, small firms make extensive use of equity financing which is generally more expensive. In this paper, we propose a mechanism that explains these empirical facts in a heterogeneous firm optimization model. Our mechanism is based on two main features: (1) small firms are growing and therefore need more funds and (2) cost of debt financing is higher for more leveraged firms. These features imply that small firms’ funding needs cannot be satisfied by debt alone - especially not in booms when growth opportunities and therefore funding needs are higher. For this reason they turn to equity. The model accounts for the cyclical patterns we see in the data.

Energy consumption boomtowns in the United States: Community responses to a cryptocurrency boom

Abstract: While scholars have studied the impacts of energy development booms on local communities in the U.S., much less is known about towns experiencing energy consumption booms from industries such as cryptocurrency mining. This article proposes that energy consumption boomtowns are unique in the risks, benefits, and conflicts they create—and that they provide fruitful areas of research for energy social scientists. We illustrate this point with a brief case study of Chelan County, Washington—where an influx of crypto mining over the past five years has stirred community debate. We collected more than 100 newspaper articles, public comments, and public meeting recordings to identify the cautions, hesitations, and criticisms that have caused local regulators to take a precautionary approach. We highlight five key points of the debate that may be of interest to energy social scientists: (1) impacts on the local energy supply and prices, (2) unclear socioeconomic benefits to the county, (3) the illegitimacy of cryptocurrency, (4) environmental considerations, and (5) a disconnect with local legacy industries and community economic identity. We conclude by proposing areas of future social science research on energy consumption booms.

Dynamic Systems, Process and Development

Abstract: In this article, I answer the questions from Witherington and Boom's introduction to this special issue in the form of an imaginary interview, led by David Boom, equally imaginary editor of The Processual Inquirer, an obscure but interesting journal that appears in imaginary physical print only, and which, as a consequence, has so far left no traces on the Internet….

Oil booms and inequality in Iran

Abstract: We study the response of income inequality to positive per capita oil and gas revenue shocks in Iran. Using historical data from 1973 to 2016 and vector autoregression (VAR) as well as vector error correction (VECM) model‐based impulse‐response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil booms. We also explore possible channels through which oil booms may increase inequality, including private sector credit growth, construction investment, international trade (imports) and real economic output. We find that following an oil boom, higher imports, private sector credit growth, and real economic output can explain the increased income gap to a certain degree in Iran's oil‐based economy. Our analysis can help policymakers evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects of inequality in Iran resulting from the 2016 lifting of the embargo against the country.

Motion Trajectory-Based Transportation Control for 3-D Boom Cranes: Analysis, Design, and Experiments

Abstract: Boom crane systems with high practicality, the control problems of which are more complex than those of most other underactuated systems due to their strongly nonlinear dynamical coupling characteristics, are widely applied in various places. In addition to the basic control objectives of accurate boom positioning and payload swing suppression, another challenging aspect is how to improve the transient performance of the state variables while ensuring time (sub)optimality during transportation. In this paper, to address the two aforementioned issues, i.e., complicated nonlinear dynamics and ensuring transient performance, a new nonlinear time suboptimal trajectory planning approach, which does not require linearizing the original nonlinear dynamics, is proposed to achieve efficient control results for the boom crane system. After performing an in-depth analysis, we find a transformation relationship between four tip signals and the state variables. Then, by planning proper trajectories for the tip signals based on the original nonlinear boom crane dynamics, we obtain swing-free time suboptimal trajectories for the boom pitch and yaw movements; hence, the boom can reach its destination accurately, and the payload swing can be suppressed. Moreover, the state variables can be restricted within specified ranges as required. The presented trajectory planner can be considered as the first solution for generating trajectories for the boom crane system, respecting various state constraints without the need for any linearization operations. Finally, some hardware experiments are introduced to verify the effectiveness of the presented control strategy.

Is the hydropower boom actually taking place? A case study of a South East European country, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract: Over the last two decades, the world has experienced a boom in the number of hydropower projects. Considered an important part of sustainable development, particularly in post-socialist transition and developing countries, it is claimed that hydropower plants will make substantial contributions to environmentally friendly economic growth and poverty eradication. However, the so-called ‘hydropower boom’ has not resulted in a global mass construction of plants. In general, over-ambitious planning, a lack of funding opportunities and corruption are often put forward as explanations for the discrepancy between the number of plans and actual construction of hydropower plants. In this paper, it is added to these three reasons, illustrating with a case study from Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the planning of hydropower projects very rarely results in their construction. The results are based on secondary data and primary data, i.e. semi-structured interviews and informal talks, collected during fieldwork in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The data was analyzed using the analytical induction method. The results highlight how administrative complexity, over-estimations of exploitable capacity, an unattractive sociopolitical and socioeconomic situation and how these factors in combination create the conditions for various practices of corruption hinder the construction of plants. Comparing the results with other findings from around the world, the paper suggests approaching the so-called global hydropower boom with caution.

Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms

Abstract: The literature that investigates credit booms has essentially focused on their economic determinants. This paper explores the importance of political conditionings and central bank independence and provides some striking findings on this matter. Estimating a fixed effects logit model over a panel of developed and developing countries for the period 1975q1–2016q4, we find that credit booms are less likely when right‐wing parties are in office, especially in developing countries, and when there is political instability. However, they have not proven to depend on the electoral cycle. More independent Central Banks are also found to reduce the probability of credit booms. Moreover, they seem to be more likely to occur and spread within a monetary union.

Risk premium in the era of shale oil

Abstract: The boom in the production of shale oil in the United States has triggered a structural transformation of the oil market. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that this process has significant consequences for oil risk premium. We construct a model based on shale producers interacting with financial speculators in the futures market. Compared to conventional oil, shale oil technology is more flexible, but producers have higher risk aversion and face additional costs due to their reliance on external finance. Our model helps to explain the observed pattern of aggregate hedging by US oil companies in the last decade. The empirical analysis shows that the hedging pressure of shale producers has become more important than that of conventional producers in explaining the oil futures risk premium.

Property speculation, global capital, urban planning and financialisation: Sydney Boom, Sydney Bust redux

Abstract: In this ‘Thinking Space’ essay we revisit Maurie Daly’s 1982 book Sydney Boom, Sydney Bust, fuelled by concern for how Australian cities are being transformed by financialised real estate. ...

Crop booms at the forest frontier: Triggers, reinforcing dynamics, and the diffusion of knowledge and norms

Abstract: Crop booms in forest frontiers are a major contributor to deforestation and global change. Because of their non-linearity, intensity, and unpredictability, booms are specific instances of land change, namely land system regime shifts, which require an analysis going beyond that of their drivers or individual actors’ decisions. So far, the combined effect of behavioral dynamics at the household, village, and higher levels, which are often mutually-reinforcing, have not been considered in the empirical analysis of crop booms. In this paper, we aim to further the understanding and the theory behind the dynamics of crop booms and land regime shifts. We focus on the smallholder-driven northern Laos rubber boom and analyze two case study areas with different intensity of rubber expansion. We use a combination of household surveys and interviews with villagers, government officials and private sector actors to analyze the preconditions, triggers and reinforcing effects at household and higher levels that help explain the timing and extent of the boom. In particular, we focus on the role of information transmission and imitation in household decisions to adopt and expand rubber. Our findings show that the rapid expansion of rubber in northern Laos was in part the result of household decisions spurred by economic and policy triggers that changed the real and perceived benefits of growing rubber. In addition, there were higher-level and mutually-reinforcing dynamics, such as the conversion of village communal forests, a rush for land, and individual behavior contingent on others’, including imitation. The transmission of information through social networks played a key role in rubber adoption decisions, but the diffusion of new norms and values was also important and may have accelerated adoption decisions. Rubber adoption and expansion decisions thus had normative and informational, as well as knowledge-based and imitation components.

Economy-Wide Spillovers from Booms: Long-Distance Commuting and the Spread of Wage Effects

Abstract: Since 2000, US real average wages stagnated or declined while Canadian wages increased. We investigate the role of the Canadian resource boom in explaining this difference. We focus on wage spillov...

It’s Boom Time! (Again): Progress Narratives and Women’s Sport in Australia

Abstract: Over the last three years (2015–2017), various media articles have pointed to an apparent “boom time” for women’s sport in Australia. Evidence for this boom is drawn from examples such as the intro...

The Irish Newspapers and the Residential Property Price Boom

Abstract: There has already been some academic discussion of the role of the Irish newspapers in fuelling the country's residential property boom that crashed in 2008. Several academic commentators have argu...

Mapping institutional work as a method for local strategy; learning from boom/bust dynamics in the Canadian west

Abstract: We investigate the potential of mapping institutional work in communities as a method for both analyzing and formulating local development strategy. Twelve Canadian case communities experiencing dr...

Boom Cities: Architect Planners and the Politics of Radical Urban Renewal in 1960s Britain

Abstract: Boom Cities: Architect-Planners and the Politics of Radical Urban Renewal in 1960s Britain is the first published history of the profound transformations of British city centres in the 1960s. It details the rise and fall of this complex and notorious subject, of which it has often been said that urban planners did more damage to Britain’s cities than even the Luftwaffe had managed. The result is the first account to reveal the origins and dissolution of the cross-party consensus on modernist urban planning, before the ideological smearing that has ever since characterized the high-rise towers, dizzying ring roads, and concrete precincts that were left behind. The rebuilding of British city centres during the 1960s drastically affected the built form of urban Britain, including places ranging from traditional cathedral cities through to the decaying towns of the Industrial Revolution. Throughout the course of the book many cities are visited, but, more importantly, Boom Cities uncovers both the planning philosophy, and the political, cultural, and legislative background that created the conditions for these processes to occur across the country. It reveals the role of architect-planners in these transformations. The book also provides an unconventional account of the end of modernist approaches to the built environment, showing it from the perspective of planning and policy elites, rather than through the emergence of public opposition to planning.

Unmanned aerial vehicle

Abstract: An aircraft has a fuselage, a wing assembly coupleable to the fuselage, and an empennage including a pair of tail booms configured to be removably coupled to the wing assembly. The wing assembly includes a pair of boom interfaces located on laterally opposite sides of the fuselage. Each tail boom has a boom forward end configured to be mechanically attached to one of the boom interfaces using an externally-accessible mechanical fastener.

Design of a New N-Shape Composite Ultra-Thin Deployable Boom in the Post-Buckling Range Using Response Surface Method and Optimization

Abstract: Composite ultra-thin boom can be folded elastically. Moreover, such booms are able to self-deploy by releasing stored strain energy, which can be applied in deployable antenna, solar sail, and optical telescopes. Surrogate models for imperfection-sensitive quantities of interest and multi-objective optimization are developed for the design of a new N-shape cross-section composite ultra-thin deployable boom. The proposed optimal design method integrates four general steps: (1) design of experiments, wherein the sampling designs of the N boom are created on the basis of the two-factor five-level full factorial design of experiments method; (2) efficient computational analyses of each design sample, wherein the post-buckling behavior of the N boom are analyzed under three different axial directions using nonlinear finite element ABAQUS/Explicit solver; (3) establishing the surrogate models of bending stiffness around the x-and yaxes and torsional stiffness around the z-axis by response surface method (RSM); (4) performing the multi-objective optimization design using modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm to realize the optimal design. The bending stiffness around the x-and yaxes and the torsional stiffness around the z-axis are set as the objectives, mass is set as the constraint, and the bonded web height and the central angle of the middle tape spring of the N boom are set as the variables. The typical surrogate modeling method can be applied to different problems in structural and material design.

Comparing forwarder boom-control systems based on an automatically recorded follow-up dataset

Abstract: Crane work is the most time-consuming work element in forwarding. Hence, assist systems like boom-tip control are of interest. The first commercially available boom-tip control for forwarders was introduced in 2013. In this study we analysed whether replacing conventional boom control (CBC) with John Deere’s version of boom-tip control (named Intelligent Boom Control, IBC), increases crane-work productivity. We used data automatically gathered from 10 final-felling stands, covering typical logging conditions for southern, central and northern Sweden. Two John Deere 1510E and two John Deere 1910G forwarders were operated by seven experienced operators during the follow-up study, covering 1238 loads in total. A split-plot design was applied to isolate effects of the boom-control system being used (CBC, IBC). We found that using IBC for loading work (crane work and driving included) saved 5.2% of productive machine time compared to using CBC (p ≤ 0.05). The corresponding saving when using IBC for unloading work was 7.9% (p ≤ 0.05). Depending on geophysical factors, this corresponds to approximately 4% savings in productive machine time for forwarding as a whole, including pure transport (with and without load). Moreover, the study introduced in cut-to-length context a novel field-study design to collect a large follow-up dataset in the course of ordinary forwarding operations. We found the study design to be a cost-efficient way to combine the representativeness of conventional follow-up datasets with the ability to establish causal relationships. Establishment of causal relationships has traditionally been possible only through observational time studies or standardized experiments.

Smart Transportation System Using RFID

Abstract: The toll collection system in Malaysia has been one of the causes of traffic jams throughout major highways. One of the reasons for this is due to the fact that users need to either stop their car or slow down to pay for their toll fees. With the advancement of technology over the years, in particular, Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID), we can expect a faster reading time / response time by the device. By adapting RFID into toll collection system, there will be no need for boom barriers. While it is true that boom barriers avoid defaulters from using the toll, boom barriers also slow down the flow of traffic during peak hours. This project will provide a proof of concept by using a much weaker form of RFID to show that it is viable. The methodology that will be used for this particular project is Agile Unified Process (AUP).

Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms

Abstract: Recent developments in US house prices mirror those of the 1996-2006 boom, but the recovery in construction activity has been weak. Using data for 254 US metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. Housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas where land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. A lowering of the housing supply elasticity implies a stronger price responsiveness to demand shocks, whereas quantity reacts less. Consistent with this, we find that an expansionary monetary policy shock has a considerably stronger effect on house prices during the recent recovery than during the previous housing boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.

AT THE ROOTS OF THE ‘FINLAND BOOM’: The Implementation of Finnish Image Policy in Japan in the 1960s

Abstract: Finland enjoys a positive country image in Japan, where, reportedly, enthusiasm for things Finnish reached the state of a ‘boom’ during the 2000s–2010s. What is this positive visibility based on? T...

Financing China’s unprecedented infrastructure boom: the evolution of capital structure from 1978 to 2015

Abstract: The authors examine the sources of the funds that have financed China’s infrastructure development since 1978. They define the five periods in which this development has taken place in term...