Showing papers on "Stock (geology) published in 2007"

Political Connections and Preferential Access to Finance: Role of Campaign Contributions

Abstract: Using novel indicators of political connections constructed from campaign contribution data, we show that Brazilian firms that provided contributions to (elected) federal deputies experienced higher stock returns than firms that don't around the 1998 and 2002 elections. This suggests contributions help shape policy on a firm-specific basis. Using a firm fixed effects framework to mitigate the risk that unobserved firm characteristics distort the results, we find that contributing firms substantially increased their bank financing relative to a control group after each election, indicating that access to bank finance is an important channel through which political connections operate. We estimate the economic costs of this rent seeking over the two election cycles to be at least 0.2% of GDP per annum.

Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Abstract: We test for firm-level asset investment effects in returns by examining the cross-sectional relation between firm asset growth and subsequent stock returns. As a test variable, we use the year-on-year percentage change in total assets. Asset growth rates are strong predictors of future abnormal returns. Asset growth retains its forecasting ability even on large capitalization stocks, a subgroup of firms for which other documented predictors of the cross-section lose much of their predictive ability. When we compare asset growth rates with the previously documented determinants of the cross-section of returns (i.e., book-to-market ratios, firm capitalization, lagged returns, accruals, and other growth measures), we find that a firm's annual asset growth rate emerges as an economically and statistically significant predictor of the cross-section of U.S. stock returns.

Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price

Abstract: The article shows that two measures of the amount of private information in stock price—price nonsynchronicity and probability of informed trading (PIN)—have a strong positive effect on the sensitivity of corporate investment to stock price. Moreover, the effect is robust to the inclusion of controls for managerial information and for other information-related variables. The results suggest that firm managers learn from the private information in stock price about their own firms’ fundamentals and incorporate this information in the corporate investment decisions. We relate our findings to an alternative explanation for the investment-to-price sensitivity, namely that it is generated by capital constraints, and show that both the learning channel and the alternative channel contribute to this sensitivity. (JEL G14, G31) Oneofthemainrolesoffinancialmarketsistheproductionandaggregation of information. This occurs via the trading process that transmits informationproducedbytradersfortheirownspeculativetradingintomarketprices [e.g.,Grossman and Stiglitz (1980), Glosten and Milgrom (1985), and Kyle (1985)]. The markets’ remarkable ability to produce information that generates precise predictions about real variables has been demonstrated empirically in several contexts. Roll (1984) showed that private information of citrus futures traders regarding weather conditions gets impounded into citrus futures’ prices, so that prices improve even public predictions of the weather. Relatedly, the literature on prediction markets has shown that

Taking Stock: A review of more than twenty years of research on empowerment at work

Abstract: Today, more than 70 per cent of organizations have adopted some kind of empowerment initiative for at least part of their workforce (Lawler et al., 2001). To be successful in today’s global business environment, companies need the knowledge, ideas, energy, and creativity of every employee, from front line workers to the top level managers in the executive suite. The best organizations accomplish this by empowering their employees to take initiative without prodding, to serve the collective interests of the company without being micro-managed, and to act like owners of the business (O’Toole and Lawler, 2006). So what do we know about empowerment in work organizations? In this chapter, I will conduct an in-depth review of the literature on empowerment at work. I start by framing the two classic approaches to empowerment – social-structural and psychological – before outlining the current state of the literature. I then close the chapter by discussing key debates in the field and emergent directions for future research.

The Valuation Effects of Stock Splits and Stock Dividends

Abstract: This study presents evidence which indicates that stock prices, on average, react positively to stock dividend and stock split announcements that are uncontaminated by other contemporaneous firm-specific announcements. In addition, it documents significantly positive excess returns on and around the ex-dates of stock dividends and splits. Both announcement and ex-date returns were found to be larger for stock dividends than for stock splits. While the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends, the paper offers several signaling based explanations for them. These are consistent with a cross-sectional analysis of the announcement period returns.

Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability

Abstract: Deviations from put-call parity contain information about future returns. Using the difference in implied volatility between pairs of call and put options to measure these deviations we find that stocks with relatively expensive calls outperform stocks with relatively expensive puts by 51 basis points per week. We find both positive abnormal performance in stocks with relatively expensive calls and negative abnormal performance in stocks with relatively expensive puts, a result which cannot be explained by short sales constraints. Using rebate rates from the stock lending market, we confirm directly that our findings are not driven by stocks that are hard to borrow. Options with more leverage generate greater predictability. Controlling for size, deviations from put-call parity are more likely to occur in options with underlying stocks that face more information risk. Deviations from put-call parity also tend to predict returns to a larger extent in firms that face a more asymmetric information environment, and in firms with high residual analyst coverage. We also find that the degree of predictability decreases over the sample period. Our results are consistent with mispricing during the earlier years of the study, with a gradual reduction of the mispricing over time.

Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns

Abstract: I argue that the slow diffusion of industry information is a leading cause of the lead-lag effect in stock returns. I find that the lead-lag effect between big firms and small firms is predominantly an intra-industry phenomenon. Moreover, this effect is driven by sluggish adjustment to negative information, and is robust to alternative determinants of the lead-lag effect. Small, less competitive and neglected industries experience a more pronounced lead-lag effect. The lead-lag effect is related to the post-announcement drift of small firms following the earnings releases of big firms within the industry.

Do Investors Trade More When Stocks Have Performed Well? Evidence from 46 Countries

Abstract: This article investigates the dynamic relation between market-wide trading activity and returns in 46 markets. Many stock markets exhibit a strong positive relation between turnover and past returns. These findings stand up in the face of various controls for volatility, alternative definitions of turnover, differing sample periods, and are present at both the weekly and daily frequency. The relation is more statistically and economically significant in countries with high levels of corruption, with short-sale restrictions, and in which market volatility is high. © The Author 2006.

Insider Trading Laws and Stock Price Informativeness

Abstract: We investigate the relation between a country's first-time enforcement of insider trading laws and stock price informativeness using data from 48 countries over 1980-2003. Enforcement of insider trading laws improves price informativeness, as measured by firm-specific stock return variation, but this increase is concentrated in developed markets. In emerging market countries, price informativeness changes insignificantly after the enforcement, as the important contribution of insiders in impounding information into stock prices largely disappears. The enforcement does not achieve the goal of improving price informativeness in countries with poor legal institutions. It does turn some private information into public information, thereby reducing the cost of equity in emerging markets.

Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues

Abstract: The book-to-market ratio, B/M, is a noisy measure of expected stock returns because B/M also varies with expected cashflows. Our hypothesis is that the evolution of B/M, in terms of past changes in book equity and price, contains independent information about expected cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. The tests support this hypothesis, with results that are largely but not entirely similar for Microcap stocks (below the 20th NYSE market capitalization percentile) and All but Micro stocks.

Financial Constraints, R&D Investment, and Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: This paper uses research and development (R&D) data to examine the link between asset prices and financing constraints. Through a continuous-time real options model I show that there is a strong positive relation between financing constraints and stock returns, but only for high-R&D firms. Conversely, the model also predicts a strong positive relation between R&D and returns for highly constrained firms. Empirical results confirm these predictions. These findings not only explain the puzzling flat relation between financial constraints and stock returns documented in the literature, but also shed light on the economic source of the predictability of R&D investment on stock returns.

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

Abstract: Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. The "top down" approach to behavioral finance focuses on the measurement of reduced form, aggregate sentiment and traces its effects to stock returns. It builds on the two broader and more irrefutable assumptions of behavioral finance - sentiment and the limits to arbitrage - to explain which stocks are likely to be most affected by sentiment. In particular, stocks of low capitalization, younger, unprofitable, high volatility, non-dividend paying, growth companies, or stocks of firms in financial distress, are likely to be disproportionately sensitive to broad waves of investor sentiment. We review the theoretical and empirical evidence for these predictions.

Can Macroeconomic Variables Explain Long Term Stock Market Movements? A Comparison of the US and Japan

Abstract: Within the framework of a standard discounted value model we examine whether a number of macroeconomic variables influence stock prices in the US and Japan. A cointegration analysis is applied in order to model the long term relationship between industrial production, the consumer price index, money supply, long term interest rates and stock prices in the US and Japan. For the US we find the data are consistent with a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices are positively related to industrial production and negatively related to both the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. We also find an insignificant (although positive) relationship between US stock prices and the money supply. However, for the Japanese data we find two cointegrating vectors. We find for one vector that stock prices are influenced positively by industrial production and negatively by the money supply. For the second cointegrating vector we find industrial production to be negatively influenced by the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. These contrasting results may be due to the slump in the Japanese economy during the 1990s and consequent liquidity trap.

Stock Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Critical Issues and Challenges

Abstract: This paper examines the economic importance of stock markets in Africa. It discusses policy options for promoting the development of the stock market in Africa. The results of the paper show that the stock markets have contributed to the financing of the growth of large corporations in certain African countries. An econometric investigation of the impact of stock markets on growth in selected African countries, however, finds inconclusive evidence even though stock market value traded seem to be positively and significantly associated with growth. African stock exchanges now face the challenge of integration and need better technical and institutional development to address the problem of low liquidity. Preconditions for successful regional approaches include the harmonization of legislations such as bankruptcy and accounting laws and a liberalized trade regime. Robust electronic trading systems and central depository systems will be important. Further domestic financial liberalization such as steps to improve the legal and accounting framework, private sector credit evaluation capabilities, and public sector regulatory oversight would also be beneficial.

Asymmetric timeliness tests of accounting conservatism

Abstract: Recent accounting research employs an asymmetric timeliness measure to test the hypothesis that reported accounting earnings are “conservative.” This research design regresses earnings on stock returns to examine whether “bad” news is incorporated into earnings on a more timely basis than “good” news. We identify properties of the asymmetric timeliness estimation procedure that will result in biases in the test statistics except under very restrictive conditions that are rarely met in typical empirical settings. Using data series that are devoid of asymmetric timeliness in reported earnings, we show how these biases result in evidence consistent with conservatism. We conclude that the biased test statistics inherent in the asymmetric timeliness research design preclude using this method to measure conservatism; that these biases are irresolvable as they originate in the test’s specification; and that studies employing asymmetric timeliness tests cannot be interpreted as providing evidence of conservatism.

Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions

Abstract: This paper develops and implements a new test to investigate whether sell-side analysts herd around the consensus when they make stock recommendations. Our empirical results support the herding hypothesis. Stock price reactions following recommendation revisions are stronger when the new recommendation is away from the consensus than when it is closer to it, indicating that the market recognizes analysts' tendency to herd. We find that analysts from larger brokerages and analysts following stocks with smaller dispersion across recommendations are more likely to herd.

Ownership Level, Ownership Concentration and Liquidity

Abstract: We examine the link between the liquidity of a firm's stock and its ownership structure, specifically, how much of the firm's stock is owned by insiders and institutions, and how concentrated is their ownership. We find that the liquidity-ownership relation is mostly driven by institutional ownership rather than insider ownership. Importantly, liquidity is positively related to total institutional holdings but negatively related to institutional blockholdings. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that while the level of institutional ownership proxies for trading activity, the concentration of such ownership proxies for adverse selection.

The Accrual Anomaly: International Evidence

Abstract: We consider stock markets in 20 countries to investigate whether the accrual anomaly (Sloan 1996), characterized by U.S. stock prices overweighting the role of accrual persistence, is a local manifestation of a global phenomenon.We explore whether the occurrence of the anomaly is related to country differences in accounting and institutional structures, and examine alternative explanations for its occurrence. We find stock prices overweight accruals in general, with accruals overweighting occurring in countries with a common law relative to a code law tradition. Using firmlevel data on a country‐by‐country basis, we document the occurrence of the anomaly in four countries, Australia, Canada, the U.K., and the U.S., and also in a sample of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of firms domiciled in countries where we do not detect the anomaly. Using country‐level data, we confirm the anomaly is more likely to occur in countries having a common law tradition, and also in countries allowing extensive use of ac...

Stock-Based Compensation and CEO (Dis)Incentives

Abstract: Stock-based compensation is the standard solution to agency problems between shareholders and managers. In a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model with asymmetric information we show that although stock-based compensation causes managers to work harder, it also induces them to hide any worsening of the firm’s investment opportunities by following largely sub-optimal investment policies. This problem is especially severe for growth firms, whose stock prices then become overvalued while managers hide the bad news to shareholders. We find that a firm-specific compensation package based on both stock and earnings performance instead induces a combination of high effort, truth revelation and optimal investments. The model produces numerous predictions that are consistent with the empirical evidence.

Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables

Abstract: This study investigates the long-term and short-term relationships between the US stock price index (S&P 500) and six macroeconomic variables over the period 1975:1–1999:4. We observe that the stock prices negatively relate to the long-term interest rate, but positively relate to the money supply, industrial production, inflation, the exchange rate and the short-term interest rate. In the Granger causality sense, every macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. Moreover, these results are also supported by the VDC, i.e. the stock prices are relatively exogenous in relation to other variables because almost 87% of its own variance is explained by its own stock even after 24 months.