Antje Weisheimer

TL;DR: SEAS5 as discussed by the authors is the ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which became operational in November 2017 and includes upgraded versions of the atmosphere and ocean models at higher resolutions and adds a prognostic sea-ice model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a calibration method to determine whether specific regional climate projections may be untrustworthy in the light of generic deficiencies, based on the emerging notion of seamless prediction, which is demonstrated by calibrating probabilistic projections from the multimodel ensembles used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on reliability analyses from the seasonal forecast Development of a European Multi...

TL;DR: In this paper, a large ensemble of climate model simulations was used to find that anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation.

TL;DR: A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors make a case that the use of stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather, and reduces systematic model bias.