Showing papers by "Marta C. González published in 2020"

Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network

Abstract: The risk for a global transmission of flu-type viruses is strengthened by the physical contact between humans and accelerated through individual mobility patterns. The Air Transportation System plays a critical role in such transmissions because it is responsible for fast and long-range human travel, while its building components-the airports-are crowded, confined areas with usually poor hygiene. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) consider hand hygiene as the most efficient and cost-effective way to limit disease propagation. Results from clinical studies reveal the effect of hand washing on individual transmissibility of infectious diseases. However, its potential as a mitigation strategy against the global risk for a pandemic has not been fully explored. Here, we use epidemiological modeling and data-driven simulations to elucidate the role of individual engagement with hand hygiene inside airports in conjunction with human travel on the global spread of epidemics. We find that, by increasing travelers engagement with hand hygiene at all airports, a potential pandemic can be inhibited by 24% to 69%. In addition, we identify 10 airports at the core of a cost-optimal deployment of the hand-washing mitigation strategy. Increasing hand-washing rate at only those 10 influential locations, the risk of a pandemic could potentially drop by up to 37%. Our results provide evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene in airports on the global spread of infections that could shape the way public-health policy is implemented with respect to the overall objective of mitigating potential population health crises.

Urban Science: Integrated Theory from the First Cities to Sustainable Metropolises

Abstract: Urban science seeks to understand the fundamental processes that drive, shape and sustain cities and urbanization. It is a multi/transdisciplinary approach involving concepts, methods and research from the social, natural, engineering and computational sciences, along with the humanities. This report is intended to convey the current “state of the art” in urban science while also clearly indicating how urban science builds upon and complements (but does not replace) prior work on cities and urbanization in many other disciplines. The report does not aim at a fully comprehensive synopsis of work done under the rubric of “urban science” but it does aim to convey what makes urban science different from discipline-based examinations of cities and urbanization. It also highlights novel insights generated by the inherently multidisciplinary inquiry that urban science exemplifies. The authors of the report are all based in academic or research institutions but several of them are close to practice by virtue of collaboration with NGOs and community groups and engagement with policy. The authors also represent different academic disciplines and varied traditions of scientific inquiry. The report is meant to facilitate, and hopefully also provoke, discussion among the many stakeholders for whom a scientifically based, empirically rich, and historically deep understanding of cities and urbanization is not only intellectually compelling but also socially urgent and ethically pressing. We believe that the innovative scholarship constituting urban science can importantly provide scientific leadership to support meeting the urgent challenges of global sustainable development.

A data science framework for planning the growth of bicycle infrastructures

Abstract: Cities around the world are turning to non-motorized transport alternatives to help solve congestion and pollution issues. This paradigm shift demands on new infrastructure that serves and boosts local cycling rates. This creates the need for novel data sources, tools, and methods that allow us to identify and prioritize locations where to intervene via properly planned cycling infrastructure. Here, we define potential demand as the total trips of the population that could be supported by bicycle paths. To that end, we use information from a phone-based travel demand and the trip distance distribution from bike apps. Next, we use percolation theory to prioritize paths with high potential demand that benefit overall connectivity if a bike path would be added. We use Bogota as a case study to demonstrate our methods. The result is a data science framework that informs interventions and improvements to an urban cycling infrastructure.

Estimating MFDs, trip lengths and path flow distributions in a multi-region setting using mobile phone data

Abstract: The present work proposes a global framework to estimate all MFD model parameters using mobile phone data. The three major components that are estimated in the present context are MFD shapes, regional trip lengths and path flow distribution. A trip enrichment scheme based on the map matching process is proposed for the trips that have sparser records. Time dependent penetration rates are estimated by fusing the OD matrix and the Loop Detector Data (LDD). Two different types of penetration rates of vehicles are proposed based on the OD flow and the trips starting within an origin, respectively. The estimated MFDs based on two types of penetration rates are stable with very low scatter. In the following step, macro-paths and their corresponding trip lengths are estimated. This work is the first to present empirical evidences of the dynamic evolution of mean trip lengths over the day, which is very difficult to capture with other types of data sources. The last component is the time dependent path flow distributions between the different macro-paths for a given OD pair. The manuscript is concluded by presenting the time evolution of the User Equilibrium (UE) gap for different macroscopic OD pairs. It is noticed that UE principle holds true most of the time, except for OD pairs that have macro-paths transversing through congested reservoirs, especially during peak hours.

Socio-economic, built environment, and mobility conditions associated with crime: a study of multiple cities

Abstract: Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Seminal studies analyse crime records through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio-economical characteristics) and often at large in a single city. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how violent and property crimes are related not only to socio-economic factors but also to the built environmental (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. To that end, we analyse crime at small areas and integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces to compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogota, Los Angeles and Chicago. We find that the combined use of socio-economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio-ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no "one fits all" model.

A simple contagion process describes spreading of traffic jams in urban networks.

Abstract: The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two macroscopic characteristics for network traffic dynamics, namely congestion propagation rate β and congestion dissipation rate μ. We describe the dynamics of congestion spread using these new parameters embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, similar to the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time. Predicting and controlling traffic congestion propagation is an ongoing challenge in most urban settings. Here, Seberi et al. apply a contagion model describing epidemic spread in population to model traffic jams, and verify its validity using large-scale data from six different cities around the world.

Deconstructing laws of accessibility and facility distribution in cities

Abstract: The era of the automobile has seriously degraded the quality of urban life through costly travel and visible environmental effects. A new urban planning paradigm must be at the heart of our road map for the years to come, the one where, within minutes, inhabitants can access their basic living needs by bike or by foot. In this work, we present novel insights of the interplay between the distributions of facilities and population that maximize accessibility over the existing road networks. Results in six cities reveal that travel costs could be reduced in half through redistributing facilities. In the optimal scenario, the average travel distance can be modeled as a functional form of the number of facilities and the population density. As an application of this finding, it is possible to estimate the number of facilities needed for reaching a desired average travel distance given the population distribution in a city.

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations.

Abstract: The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

Deconstructing laws of accessibility and facility distribution in cities

Abstract: The era of the automobile has seriously degraded the quality of urban life through costly travel and visible environmental effects. A new urban planning paradigm must be at the heart of our roadmap for the years to come. The one where, within minutes, inhabitants can access their basic living needs by bike or by foot. In this work, we present novel insights of the interplay between the distributions of facilities and population that maximize accessibility over the existing road networks. Results in six cities reveal that travel costs could be reduced in half through redistributing facilities. In the optimal scenario, the average travel distance can be modeled as a functional form of the number of facilities and the population density. As an application of this finding, it is possible to estimate the number of facilities needed for reaching a desired average travel distance given the population distribution in a city.

How Does the Electricity Demand Profile Impact the Attractiveness of PV-Coupled Battery Systems Combining Applications?

Abstract: Energy storage is a key solution to supply renewable electricity on demand and in particular batteries are becoming attractive for consumers who install PV panels. In order to minimize their electricity bill and keep the grid stable, batteries can combine applications. The daily match between PV supply and the electricity load profile is often considered as a determinant for the attractiveness of residential PV-coupled battery systems, however, the previous literature has so far mainly focused on the annual energy balance. In this paper, we analyze the techno-economic impact of adding a battery system to a new PV system that would otherwise be installed on its own, for different residential electricity load profiles in Geneva (Switzerland) and Austin (U.S.) using lithium-ion batteries performing various consumer applications, namely PV self-consumption, demand load-shifting, avoidance of PV curtailment, and demand peak shaving, individually and jointly. We employ clustering of the household’s load profile (with 15-minute resolution) for households with low, medium, and high annual electricity consumption in the two locations using a 1:1:1 sizing ratio. Our results show that with this simple sizing rule-of-thumb, the shape of the load profile has a small impact on the net present value of batteries. Overall, our analysis suggests that the effect of the load profile is small and differs across locations, whereas the combination of applications significantly increases profitability while marginally decreasing the share of self-consumption. Moreover, without the combination of applications, batteries are far from being economically viable.

The promise and perils of big gender data.

Abstract: Big Data may revolutionize social science—and also amplify our deepest cultural biases.

Planning for sustainable Open Streets in pandemic cities

Abstract: In the wake of the pandemic, the inadequacy of urban sidewalks to comply with social distancing remains untackled in academy. Beyond isolated efforts (from sidewalk widenings to car-free Open Streets), there is a need for a large-scale and quantitative strategy for cities to handle the challenges that COVID-19 poses in the use of public space. The main obstacle is a generalized lack of publicly available data on sidewalk infrastructure worldwide, and thus city governments have not yet benefited from a complex systems approach of treating urban sidewalks as networks. Here, we leverage sidewalk geometries from ten cities in three continents, to first analyze sidewalk and roadbed geometries, and find that cities most often present an arrogant distribution of public space: imbalanced and unfair with respect to pedestrians. Then, we connect these geometries to build a sidewalk network --adjacent, but not assimilable to road networks, so fertile in urban science. In a no-intervention scenario, we apply percolation theory to examine whether the sidewalk infrastructure in cities can withstand the tight pandemic social distancing imposed on our streets. The resulting collapse of sidewalk networks, often at widths below three meters, calls for a cautious strategy, taking into account the interdependencies between a city's sidewalk and road networks, as any improvement for pedestrians comes at a cost for motor transport. With notable success, we propose a shared-effort heuristic that delays the sidewalk connectivity breakdown, while preserving the road network's functionality.

Socio-economic, built environment, and mobility conditions associated with crime: A study of multiple cities

Abstract: Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Mainstream studies analyse crime records through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio-economical characteristics) and often at large spatial units. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how crime is related not only to socio-economic factors but also to the built environmental (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. To that end, we integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces and compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogota, Los Angeles and Chicago. We find that the combined use of socio-economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio-ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no "one fits all" model.