Showing papers by "Mathew Williams published in 2009"

Improving land surface models with FLUXNET data

Abstract: . There is a growing consensus that land surface models (LSMs) that simulate terrestrial biosphere exchanges of matter and energy must be better constrained with data to quantify and address their uncertainties. FLUXNET, an international network of sites that measure the land surface exchanges of carbon, water and energy using the eddy covariance technique, is a prime source of data for model improvement. Here we outline a multi-stage process for "fusing" (i.e. linking) LSMs with FLUXNET data to generate better models with quantifiable uncertainty. First, we describe FLUXNET data availability, and its random and systematic biases. We then introduce methods for assessing LSM model runs against FLUXNET observations in temporal and spatial domains. These assessments are a prelude to more formal model-data fusion (MDF). MDF links model to data, based on error weightings. In theory, MDF produces optimal analyses of the modelled system, but there are practical problems. We first discuss how to set model errors and initial conditions. In both cases incorrect assumptions will affect the outcome of the MDF. We then review the problem of equifinality, whereby multiple combinations of parameters can produce similar model output. Fusing multiple independent and orthogonal data provides a means to limit equifinality. We then show how parameter probability density functions (PDFs) from MDF can be used to interpret model validity, and to propagate errors into model outputs. Posterior parameter distributions are a useful way to assess the success of MDF, combined with a determination of whether model residuals are Gaussian. If the MDF scheme provides evidence for temporal variation in parameters, then that is indicative of a critical missing dynamic process. A comparison of parameter PDFs generated with the same model from multiple FLUXNET sites can provide insights into the concept and validity of plant functional types (PFT) – we would expect similar parameter estimates among sites sharing a single PFT. We conclude by identifying five major model-data fusion challenges for the FLUXNET and LSM communities: (1) to determine appropriate use of current data and to explore the information gained in using longer time series; (2) to avoid confounding effects of missing process representation on parameter estimation; (3) to assimilate more data types, including those from earth observation; (4) to fully quantify uncertainties arising from data bias, model structure, and initial conditions problems; and (5) to carefully test current model concepts (e.g. PFTs) and guide development of new concepts.

Using satellite radar backscatter to predict above‐ground woody biomass: A consistent relationship across four different African landscapes

Abstract: [1] Regional-scale above-ground biomass (AGB) estimates of tropical savannas and woodlands are highly uncertain, despite their global importance for ecosystems services and as carbon stores. In response, we collated field inventory data from 253 plots at four study sites in Cameroon, Uganda and Mozambique, and examined the relationships between field-measured AGB and cross-polarized radar backscatter values derived from ALOS PALSAR, an L-band satellite sensor. The relationships were highly significant, similar among sites, and displayed high prediction accuracies up to 150 Mg ha � 1 (±� 20%). AGB predictions for any given site obtained using equations derived from data from only the other three sites generated only small increases in error. The results suggest that a widely applicable general relationship exists between AGB and L-band backscatter for lower-biomass tropical woody vegetation. This relationship allows regional-scale AGB estimation, required for example by planned REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) schemes. Citation: Mitchard, E. T. A., S. S. Saatchi, I. H. Woodhouse, G. Nangendo, N. S. Ribeiro, M. Williams, C. M. Ryan, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Feldpausch, and P. Meir (2009), Using satellite radar backscatter to predict above-ground woody biomass: A consistent relationship across four different African landscapes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23401, doi:10.1029/2009GL040692.

Biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 in relation to climate: a cross-biome analysis across multiple time scales

Abstract: . The net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) varies at time scales from seconds to years and longer via the response of its components, gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), to physical and biological drivers. Quantifying the relationship between flux and climate at multiple time scales is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the role of climate in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Orthonormal wavelet transformation (OWT) can quantify the strength of the interactions between gappy eddy covariance flux and micrometeorological measurements at multiple frequencies while expressing time series variance in few energetic wavelet coefficients, offering a low-dimensional view of the response of terrestrial carbon flux to climatic variability. The variability of NEE, GEP and RE, and their co-variability with dominant climatic drivers, are explored with nearly one thousand site-years of data from the FLUXNET global dataset consisting of 253 eddy covariance research sites. The NEE and GEP wavelet spectra were similar among plant functional types (PFT) at weekly and shorter time scales, but significant divergence appeared among PFT at the biweekly and longer time scales, at which NEE and GEP were relatively less variable than climate. The RE spectra rarely differed among PFT across time scales as expected. On average, RE spectra had greater low frequency (monthly to interannual) variability than NEE, GEP and climate. CANOAK ecosystem model simulations demonstrate that "multi-annual" spectral peaks in flux may emerge at low (4+ years) time scales. Biological responses to climate and other internal system dynamics, rather than direct ecosystem response to climate, provide the likely explanation for observed multi-annual variability, but data records must be lengthened and measurements of ecosystem state must be made, and made available, to disentangle the mechanisms responsible for low frequency patterns in ecosystem CO2 exchange.

Biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 in relation to climate

Abstract: Abstract. The net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) varies at time scales from seconds to years and longer via the response of its components, gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), to physical and biological drivers. Quantifying the relationship between flux and climate at multiple time scales is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the role of climate in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Orthonormal wavelet transformation (OWT) can quantify the strength of the interactions between gappy eddy covariance flux and micrometeorological measurements at multiple frequencies while expressing time series variance in few energetic wavelet coefficients, offering a low-dimensional view of the response of terrestrial carbon flux to climatic variability. The variability of NEE, GEP and RE, and their co-variability with dominant climatic drivers, are explored with nearly one thousand site-years of data from the FLUXNET global dataset consisting of 253 eddy covariance research sites. The NEE and GEP wavelet spectra were similar among plant functional types (PFT) at weekly and shorter time scales, but significant divergence appeared among PFT at the biweekly and longer time scales, at which NEE and GEP were relatively less variable than climate. The RE spectra rarely differed among PFT across time scales as expected. On average, RE spectra had greater low frequency (monthly to interannual) variability than NEE, GEP and climate. CANOAK ecosystem model simulations demonstrate that "multi-annual" spectral peaks in flux may emerge at low (4+ years) time scales. Biological responses to climate and other internal system dynamics, rather than direct ecosystem response to climate, provide the likely explanation for observed multi-annual variability, but data records must be lengthened and measurements of ecosystem state must be made, and made available, to disentangle the mechanisms responsible for low frequency patterns in ecosystem CO2 exchange.

Simulations of global evapotranspiration using semiempirical and mechanistic schemes of plant hydrology

Abstract: [1] Some of the plant hydrology schemes implemented in global land surface models (LSMs) are relatively simple. This is despite evidence that simulated carbon, water, and energy fluxes are sensitive to both the availability of soil moisture and the formulation of plant hydrology. The current study introduces a mechanistic scheme of plant hydrology (soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA)) into a global LSM (Joint U.K. Land Environmental Simulator (JULES)) in order to compare with a traditional, semiempirical plant hydrology scheme (SiB) based on the Ball-Berry stomatal relation. The SPA scheme simulates explicitly the physical processes which change leaf water potential and account for the flow of water through the soil-plant-atmosphere media. Using both plant hydrology schemes, the annually averaged global evaporation-to-precipitation ratio is 0.58±0.9. The annually averaged global transpiration-to-precipitation ratio is 0.22±0.09 and 0.28±0.08 using the SPA and SiB plant hydrology schemes, respectively. The output from the two plant hydrology schemes typically differs less than the systematic errors associated with the different observational data sets (eddy covariance fluxes, continental runoff, etc.) employed to calibrate and validate the LSM. However, SPA is more conservative with respect to plant water use efficiency compared to SiB. This is partly due to the exhaustion of stored leaf water (not accounted for with the SiB scheme) which acts to limit afternoon transpiration when diurnal vapor pressure deficit is greatest. The trend in global runoff simulated with both plant hydrology schemes for the latter half of the 20th century (� 1% per 50 years) agrees well with recent observational estimates that sample 80% of the global runoff network.

Upscaling as ecological information transfer: a simple framework with application to Arctic ecosystem carbon exchange

Abstract: Transferring ecological information across scale often involves spatial aggregation, which alters information content and may bias estimates if the scaling process is nonlinear. Here, a potential solution, the preservation of the information content of fine-scale measurements, is highlighted using modeled net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of an Arctic tundra landscape as an example. The variance of aggregated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), measured from an airborne platform, decreased linearly with log(scale), resulting in a linear relationship between log(scale) and the scale-wise modeled NEE estimate. Preserving three units of information, the mean, variance and skewness of fine-scale NDVI observations, resulted in upscaled NEE estimates that deviated less than 4% from the fine-scale estimate. Preserving only the mean and variance resulted in nearly 23% NEE bias, and preserving only the mean resulted in larger error and a change in sign from CO2 sink to source. Compressing NDVI maps by 70–75% using wavelet thresholding with the Haar and Coiflet basis functions resulted in 13% NEE bias across the study domain. Applying unique scale-dependent transfer functions between NDVI and leaf area index (LAI) decreased, but did not remove, bias in modeled flux in a smaller expanse using handheld NDVI observations. Quantifying the parameters of statistical distributions to preserve ecological information reduces bias when upscaling and makes possible spatial data assimilation to further reduce errors in estimates of ecological processes across scale.

Using Information Theory to Determine Optimum Pixel Size and Shape for Ecological Studies: Aggregating Land Surface Characteristics in Arctic Ecosystems

Abstract: Quantifying vegetation structure and function is critical for modeling ecological processes, and an emerging challenge is to apply models at multiple spatial scales. Land surface heterogeneity is commonly characterized using rectangular pixels, whose length scale reflects that of remote sensing measurements or ecological models rather than the spatial scales at which vegetation structure and function varies. We investigated the ‘optimum’ pixel size and shape for averaging leaf area index (LAI) measurements in relatively large (85 m2 estimates on a 600 × 600-m2 grid) and small (0.04 m2 measurements on a 40 × 40-m2 grid) patches of sub-Arctic tundra near Abisko, Sweden. We define the optimum spatial averaging operator as that which preserves the information content (IC) of measured LAI, as quantified by the normalized Shannon entropy (ES,n) and Kullback–Leibler divergence (DKL), with the minimum number of pixels. Based on our criterion, networks of Voronoi polygons created from triangulated irregular networks conditioned on hydrologic and topographic indices are often superior to rectangular shapes for averaging LAI at some, frequently larger, spatial scales. In order to demonstrate the importance of information preservation when upscaling, we apply a simple, validated ecosystem carbon flux model at the landscape level before and after spatial averaging of land surface characteristics. Aggregation errors are minimal due to the approximately linear relationship between flux and LAI, but large errors of approximately 45% accrue if the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is averaged without preserving IC before conversion to LAI due to the nonlinear NDVI-LAI transfer function.

Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter.

Abstract: Continuous time-series estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) are routinely made using eddy covariance techniques. Identifying and compensating for errors in the NEE time series can be automated using a signal processing filter like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF compares each measurement in the time series to a model prediction and updates the NEE estimate by weighting the measurement and model prediction relative to a specified measurement error estimate and an estimate of the model-prediction error that is continuously updated based on model predictions of earlier measurements in the time series. Because of the covariance among model variables, the EnKF can also update estimates of variables for which there is no direct measurement. The resulting estimates evolve through time, enabling the EnKF to be used to estimate dynamic variables like changes in leaf phenology. The evolving estimates can also serve as a means to test the embedded model and reconcile persistent deviations between observations and model predictions. We embedded a simple arctic NEE model into the EnKF and filtered data from an eddy covariance tower located in tussock tundra on the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, USA. The model predicts NEE based only on leaf area, irradiance, and temperature and has been well corroborated for all the major vegetation types in the Low Arctic using chamber-based data. This is the first application of the model to eddy covariance data. We modified the EnKF by adding an adaptive noise estimator that provides a feedback between persistent model data deviations and the noise added to the ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations in the EnKF. We also ran the EnKF with both a specified leaf-area trajectory and with the EnKF sequentially recalibrating leaf-area estimates to compensate for persistent model-data deviations. When used together, adaptive noise estimation and sequential recalibration substantially improved filter performance, but it did not improve performance when used individually. The EnKF estimates of leaf area followed the expected springtime canopy phenology. However, there were also diel fluctuations in the leaf-area estimates; these are a clear indication of a model deficiency possibly related to vapor pressure effects on canopy conductance.

Biomass report - A contribution to the scientif case for the P-Band BIOMASS Mission Proposal

Abstract: This report has been produced on behalf of the European Space Agency as part of the study “Assessing the Use of BIOMASS Mission Information within Global Vegetation and Carbon Models”, ESTEC Contract No. 20989/07/NL/CB. It reflects the substantial interest of the European and international climate and global change research communities in the potential of a future spatially resolved, consistent global data set of space-based biomass measurements for monitoring, simulation and prediction. The interim report has highlighted the importance of the vegetation biomass to the global carbon cycle. The present report is structured in two different sections that describe 1) how biomass can be estimated from different data products and 2) how biomass can be modelled at a global scale. The ground data part demonstrates different approaches for estimating biomass and examines the relationship between height and biomass as well as the influence of stand age on biomass. The modelling part gives an overview on how height and biomass are estimated in global vegetation models and how other modelled parameters and processes such as evapotranspiration are influenced by the accuracy of biomass estimates. Woody biomass is altered by human intervention through land use change and forest management. These disturbances lead to major destruction and withdrawal of forest biomass. Vegetation models can significantly benefit from measured data about the type, structure and biomass of vegetation, and therefore BIOMASS could contribute to validate model results and as a result improve the model representation of the processes that underlie biomass stocks and dynamics. In addition, from the site data different allometric functions can be derived so as to provide spatially explicit data for calibration and validation for BIOMASS.