Peter W. Gething

TL;DR: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling, and the results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

TL;DR: In this paper, a systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population and pointed to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory.

TL;DR: Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, a statistical model is developed that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia.

TL;DR: Metrics of the brightness of NTL data offer a robust and inexpensive alternative to asset-based poverty indices derived from survey data at the Administrative 1 level in Africa and could be used to explore economic inequity in health outcomes and access to health interventions at sub-national levels where household assets data are not available at the required resolution.

TL;DR: Despite success in a few countries, coverage of insecticide-treated nets and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnant African women is inadequate; increased efforts towards scale-up are needed.