Economic and Social Research Institute

About: Economic and Social Research Institute is a nonprofit organization based out in Dublin, Ireland. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & European union. The organization has 425 authors who have published 1530 publications receiving 41567 citations.

How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Abstract: Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.

The Effect of Pregnancy Intention on Maternal Prenatal Behaviours and Parent and Child Health: Results of an Irish Cohort Study

Abstract: Background Unintended pregnancy is associated with increased risk for adverse neonatal and early childhood outcomes spanning an array of indicators, but it remains unclear whether these risks hold independent of other biological, social and environmental risk factors. Methods This study uses data from the first wave of the ‘Growing Up in Ireland Study’, a large nationally representative cohort study of more than 11 000 infants, to examine the risk factors associated with unintended pregnancy. Adopting a staged approach to the analysis, the study investigates whether pregnancy intention influences maternal health behaviours during pregnancy independent of background characteristics, and whether pregnancy intention carries any additional risk for adverse infant and maternal health outcomes when we adjust for background characteristics and prenatal behaviours. Results The study confirmed that sociodemographic factors are strongly associated with unintended pregnancy and that unintended pregnancy is associated with a range of health compromising behaviours that are known to be harmful to the developing fetus. While there was little evidence to suggest that pregnancy intention was associated with adverse neonatal outcomes or developmental delay independent of other covariates, there was strong evidence that intention status had a bearing on the mother's psychosocial health. Unintended pregnancy was associated with increased risk of depression (risk ratio 1.36 [95% confidence interval 1.19, 1.54]), and higher parenting stress (risk ratio 1.27 [95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.38]). Conclusions Ascertaining the mother's pregnancy intention during the first antenatal visit may represent a means for monitoring those at greatest risk for adverse mother and child outcomes.

Determinants of ICT adoption: evidence from firm-level data

Abstract: We analyse factors driving inter- and intra-firm diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) using data from Irish manufacturing firms over the period 2001 to 2004. We find that the path of ICT diffusion has been uneven across firms, industries and space, which is consistent with the theory of new technology adoption. Our results suggest that firms that are larger, younger, fast growing, skill-intensive, export-intensive and firms located in the capital city region have been relatively more successful in adopting and using ICT. We find positive technology spillovers from firms that have adopted ICT located in the same industry and region.

Paying for hospital care: the experience with implementing activity-based funding in five European countries

Abstract: Following the US experience, activity-based funding has become the most common mechanism for reimbursing hospitals in Europe. Focusing on five European countries (England, Finland, France, Germany and Ireland), this paper reviews the motivation for introducing activity-based funding, together with the empirical evidence available to assess the impact of implementation. Despite differences in the prevailing approaches to reimbursement, the five countries shared several common objectives, albeit with different emphasis, in moving to activity-based funding during the 1990s and 2000s. These include increasing efficiency, improving quality of care and enhancing transparency. There is substantial cross-country variation in how activity-based funding has been implemented and developed. In Finland and Ireland, for instance, activity-based funding is principally used to determine hospital budgets, whereas the models adopted in the other three countries are more similar to the US approach. Assessing the impact of activity-based funding is complicated by a shortage of rigorous empirical evaluations. What evidence is currently available, though, suggests that the introduction of activity-based funding has been associated with an increase in activity, a decline in length of stay and/or a reduction in the rate of growth in hospital expenditure in most of the countries under consideration.