Joint Global Change Research Institute

About: Joint Global Change Research Institute is a facility organization based out in Riverdale Park, Maryland, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Greenhouse gas & Climate change. The organization has 197 authors who have published 934 publications receiving 62390 citations.

Carbon sequestration in the uplands of Eastern China: An analysis with high-resolution model simulations

Abstract: Using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC, version 9.5) model, we investigated the soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 1980 to 2009 in Eastern China's upland-crop fields in northern Jiangsu Province. A currently most detailed high-resolution soil database, containing 17,024 polygons at a scale of 1:50,000, derived from 983 unique upland soil profiles, was used. A coarser county-level soil database was also used for a pair-wise simulation for comparison. We found that SOC changes modeled with the county-level soil database differ significantly from those with high-resolution soil data, with the deviation ranging from −64% to 8.0% in different counties. This implies that coarse soil data may lead to large biases in SOC simulation. With the high-resolution database, the model estimates a SOC increase of 37.89 Tg C in the top soils (0–50 cm) over the study area of 3.93 Mha for the past three decades, with an average rate of 322 kg C ha −1 year −1 . The SOC accumulation in the study region accounts for 10.2% of annual national carbon sequestration of upland soils, compared with the fraction of 3.7% in the total upland area of China. This underscores its significance to national climate mitigation. The annual SOC change varied between 61 to 519 kg C ha −1 year −1 , mainly driven by the variations in N-fertilizer and manure applications. This study highlights the significance of high-resolution soil databases in quantifying SOC changes. Our high-resolution estimates of SOC will support farming and carbon management in this region.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

Abstract: ISW, AS and AM gratefully acknowledge support from NSF (grant nos. EAR-1038907 and GEO-1240507), and US Dept. of Energy Office of Science (BER) (grant no. DE-SC005171). EM gratefully acknowledges support from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change Division, under Cooperative Agreement #XA-83600001 and from the US Dept. of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under grant DEFG02-94ER61937.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Abstract: . We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.