Joint Global Change Research Institute

About: Joint Global Change Research Institute is a facility organization based out in Riverdale Park, Maryland, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Greenhouse gas & Climate change. The organization has 197 authors who have published 934 publications receiving 62390 citations.

The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Abstract: . Anthropogenic increases of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The Integrated Assessment community quantified anthropogenic emissions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentration for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally-based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions in the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from today 66 % to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterisations that reflect the Oslo Line by Line model results. In comparison to the RCPs, the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced in terms of their expected global-mean temperatures, extend to lower 2100 temperatures and sea level rise than the RCP set. Performing 2 pairs of 6-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the MAM season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼ 5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies’ projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a ‘hockey-stick’ upwards shape – it is a collective choice whether the hothouse pathway is pursued or whether we manage climate damages to the SSP1-1.9 equivalent of around 1.5 °C warming.

Simulation study of soil organic matter dynamics as affected by land use and agricultural practices in semiarid Córdoba, Argentina

Abstract: Soil carbon sequestration has been recognized as an effective, low-cost technology to mitigate climate change. Simulation models, alone or in combination with soil sampling and other techniques, can help monitor changes in soil carbon levels as affected by climate, soil, and management conditions. The objective of this paper is to test the ability of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate total organic carbon (TOC) dynamics in soils of the central region of the Province of Cordoba (Argentina) and evaluate, through modeling, the capacity of Cordoba's agricultural soils to act as sources or sinks of atmospheric CO 2 . We tested EPIC against measurements made in a spatially distributed 40-year chronosequence of a temperate shrubland forest transitioning to agricultural use with conventional practices and in two long-term tillage (moldboard plow, chisel plow, and no till) and crop rotation (maize [ Zea mays L.]–soybean [ Glycine max L. Merr.]) field studies. Overall, the EPIC model demonstrated a good capability for simulating TOC dynamics. In the chronosequence, the TOC lost during 40 years of cultivation after deforestation was calculated at 38.4 Mg ha −1 while that simulated by the model was 44.1 Mg ha −1 . These values represented losses of 44% and 45% of the original TOC content, respectively. In the two long-term field experiments, the TOC simulated over the entire depth was close to the observed values and reflected the trends of the various treatments. For the most common conditions of croplands in Cordoba, crops grown in rotation with conservation tillage, particularly no till, would make soils act as sinks of atmospheric CO 2 .

Stories about ourselves: How national narratives influence the diffusion of large-scale energy technologies

Abstract: Examining past examples of rapid, transformational changes in energy technologies could help governments understand the factors associated with such transitions. We used an existing dataset to assess government strategies to connect new energy technologies with national narratives. Analyzing the diffusion stories told by experts, we demonstrate how governments connected the new technologies with their national narratives. The United States government supported the development of nuclear power after World War II with the national narrative that the United States was destined to improve creation, increasing the potential of raw materials exponentially for the nation’s good (“atoms for peace,” electricity “too cheap to meter”). In Brazil, the development of sugar cane ethanol was supported by the government’s invoking the national narrative of suffering leading to knowledge and redemption, coupled with the quest for improved societal well-being (technological development to produce ethanol and employment for farmers). In Sweden, biomass energy was tied to the national narrative of local control, as well as love of nature and tradition (the use of natural products). We found strong evidence that the pairing of technological transformations with national narratives facilitated the successful development and implementation of these major energy technologies in the three cases analyzed here.

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

Abstract: Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 PgCyr (1981–2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes. © 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 085001