Melbourne Business School

About: Melbourne Business School is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Bayesian probability & Copula (probability theory). The organization has 155 authors who have published 764 publications receiving 37402 citations.

Environmental context and marketing planning processes

Abstract: The traditional model of marketing planning assumes that the process by which organizations take planning decisions is constant with respect to context. Organizational environment, internal context, performance and distinctive competency affect marketing planning only as information inputs for the planning process, not as influences on the choice of process. However, rapid change in environments, in competitive patterns and in market responses all demand action from organizations. Intuitively, we expect that rapid environmental change will require a faster planning process, and that increasing environmental complexity requires more careful deliberation. The marketing planning model does not accommodate such intuition. This paper outlines the case for rethinking marketing planning models, and develops a conceptual framework through which the impact of environmental context on marketing planning processes can be effectively examined.

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting with a Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula

Abstract: There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial a...

Think Globally, Act Locally: Towards an Adaptive Model of Dyadic Negotiations in Organizations

Abstract: Negotiation is a process through which two or more parties who disagree or are in conflict seek to reach agreement. In this article, we argue that the process of resolving such conflicts is an adaptive one, in which the actions taken by negotiators play a critical role. To fully understand how negotiators obtain mutually beneficial solutions, it is necessary to understand not only the context in which negotiations occur but also how negotiators' strategic choices shape the negotiating context. We analyze the reciprocal relationships between the negotiation context, negotiators' strategic decisions and their outcomes. To do this, we differentiate two levels of action, local and global, that negotiators can take. The two levels of action describe immediate and longer-term strategic behaviours that can either sustain or transform the negotiating context. We examine how congruence between these levels of action is shaped by context (negotiators' goals) and how it in turn shapes outcomes. Building off negotiation and communication theory, we develop a model of negotiation that explicitly considers the relationships between context, action and outcomes. Drawing on negotiation research, we develop a set of propositions about these relationships and discuss their theoretical and practical implications.

Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent

Abstract: Prior research documents a negative aggregate earnings-returns relation. In contrast, we posit that the sign of the relation varies, depending upon the macroeconomic and financial market conditions that exist in the earnings announcement quarter. We argue that the existing macroeconomic and financial market conditions influence market participants’ frame of reference, which in turn affects whether they interpret aggregate earnings surprises to be informative about the expected inflation component of the discount rate, the market risk premium component of the discount rate, or aggregate future cash flows. Consistent with this, we find that the sign of the aggregate earnings-returns relation changes numerous times across our sample period. We also find that market participants interpret aggregate earnings to be informative about changes in expected inflation (market risk premium) when the sign of the aggregate earnings-returns relation is negative (positive). Finally, we identify macroeconomic and financial market conditions under which the aggregate earnings-returns relation is more (less) likely to be negative (positive).