Showing papers by "School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences published in 2016"

Evolution of Reporting P Values in the Biomedical Literature, 1990-2015

Abstract: Importance The use and misuse of P values has generated extensive debates. Objective To evaluate in large scale the P values reported in the abstracts and full text of biomedical research articles over the past 25 years and determine how frequently statistical information is presented in ways other than P values. Design Automated text-mining analysis was performed to extract data on P values reported in 12 821 790 MEDLINE abstracts and in 843 884 abstracts and full-text articles in PubMed Central (PMC) from 1990 to 2015. Reporting of P values in 151 English-language core clinical journals and specific article types as classified by PubMed also was evaluated. A random sample of 1000 MEDLINE abstracts was manually assessed for reporting of P values and other types of statistical information; of those abstracts reporting empirical data, 100 articles were also assessed in full text. Main Outcomes and Measures P values reported. Results Text mining identified 4 572 043 P values in 1 608 736 MEDLINE abstracts and 3 438 299 P values in 385 393 PMC full-text articles. Reporting of P values in abstracts increased from 7.3% in 1990 to 15.6% in 2014. In 2014, P values were reported in 33.0% of abstracts from the 151 core clinical journals (n = 29 725 abstracts), 35.7% of meta-analyses (n = 5620), 38.9% of clinical trials (n = 4624), 54.8% of randomized controlled trials (n = 13 544), and 2.4% of reviews (n = 71 529). The distribution of reported P values in abstracts and in full text showed strong clustering at P values of .05 and of .001 or smaller. Over time, the “best” (most statistically significant) reported P values were modestly smaller and the “worst” (least statistically significant) reported P values became modestly less significant. Among the MEDLINE abstracts and PMC full-text articles with P values, 96% reported at least 1 P value of .05 or lower, with the proportion remaining steady over time in PMC full-text articles. In 1000 abstracts that were manually reviewed, 796 were from articles reporting empirical data; P values were reported in 15.7% (125/796 [95% CI, 13.2%-18.4%]) of abstracts, confidence intervals in 2.3% (18/796 [95% CI, 1.3%-3.6%]), Bayes factors in 0% (0/796 [95% CI, 0%-0.5%]), effect sizes in 13.9% (111/796 [95% CI, 11.6%-16.5%]), other information that could lead to estimation of P values in 12.4% (99/796 [95% CI, 10.2%-14.9%]), and qualitative statements about significance in 18.1% (181/1000 [95% CI, 15.8%-20.6%]); only 1.8% (14/796 [95% CI, 1.0%-2.9%]) of abstracts reported at least 1 effect size and at least 1 confidence interval. Among 99 manually extracted full-text articles with data, 55 reported P values, 4 presented confidence intervals for all reported effect sizes, none used Bayesian methods, 1 used false-discovery rates, 3 used sample size/power calculations, and 5 specified the primary outcome. Conclusions and Relevance In this analysis of P values reported in MEDLINE abstracts and in PMC articles from 1990-2015, more MEDLINE abstracts and articles reported P values over time, almost all abstracts and articles with P values reported statistically significant results, and, in a subgroup analysis, few articles included confidence intervals, Bayes factors, or effect sizes. Rather than reporting isolated P values, articles should include effect sizes and uncertainty metrics.

A stochastic model of randomly accelerated walkers for human mobility

Abstract: Recent studies of human mobility largely focus on displacements patterns and power law fits of empirical long-tailed distributions of distances are usually associated to scale-free superdiffusive random walks called Levy flights. However, drawing conclusions about a complex system from a fit, without any further knowledge of the underlying dynamics, might lead to erroneous interpretations. Here we show, on the basis of a data set describing the trajectories of 780,000 private vehicles in Italy, that the Levy flight model cannot explain the behaviour of travel times and speeds. We therefore introduce a class of accelerated random walks, validated by empirical observations, where the velocity changes due to acceleration kicks at random times. Combining this mechanism with an exponentially decaying distribution of travel times leads to a short-tailed distribution of distances which could indeed be mistaken with a truncated power law. These results illustrate the limits of purely descriptive models and provide a mechanistic view of mobility.

Patterns of Residential Segregation.

Abstract: The spatial distribution of income shapes the structure and organisation of cities and its understanding has broad societal implications. Despite an abundant literature, many issues remain unclear. In particular, all definitions of segregation are implicitely tied to a single indicator, usually rely on an ambiguous definition of income classes, without any consensus on how to define neighbourhoods and to deal with the polycentric organization of large cities. In this paper, we address all these questions within a unique conceptual framework. We avoid the challenge of providing a direct definition of segregation and instead start from a definition of what segregation is not. This naturally leads to the measure of representation that is able to identify locations where categories are over- or underrepresented. From there, we provide a new measure of exposure that discriminates between situations where categories co-locate or repel one another. We then use this feature to provide an unambiguous, parameter-free method to find meaningful breaks in the income distribution, thus defining classes. Applied to the 2014 American Community Survey, we find 3 emerging classes—low, middle and higher income—out of the original 16 income categories. The higher-income households are proportionally more present in larger cities, while lower-income households are not, invalidating the idea of an increased social polarisation. Finally, using the density—and not the distance to a center which is meaningless in polycentric cities—we find that the richer class is overrepresented in high density zones, especially for larger cities. This suggests that density is a relevant factor for understanding the income structure of cities and might explain some of the differences observed between US and European cities.

Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

Abstract: In their recent book, Colander and Kupers (2014) argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy. This would necessitate a paradigm shift. Economics has, over time, tried to produce a coherent model to underpin the dominant laissez-faire liberal approach. But we have never proved, in that model, that left to their own devices, the participants in an economy will self-organize into a satisfactory state. This is an assumption. Complex interactive systems with direct interaction between heterogeneous agents may show no tendency to self-equilibrate and will undergo endogenous crises. Economists should concentrate on the emergence of certain patterns. Colander and Kupers suggest that we may be able to nudge the system into "good" basins of attraction. A more radical view is that there are no fixed basins of attraction; these change with the evolution of the system and it is illusory to believe that we can choose good basins. We may be able to recognize and influence the emergence of certain states of the economy, but we are far from Leon Walras's dream of economics as a science like astrophysics.

Solving the Puzzle about Early Belief‐Ascription

Abstract: Developmental psychology currently faces a deep puzzle: most children before 4 years of age fail elicited-response false-belief tasks, but preverbal infants demonstrate spontaneous false-belief understanding. Two main strategies are available: cultural constructivism and early-belief understanding. The latter view (unlike the former) assumes that failure at elicited-response false-belief tasks need not reflect the inability to understand false beliefs. The burden of early-belief understanding is to explain why elicited-response false-belief tasks are so challenging for most children under 4 years of age. The goal of this article is to offer a pragmatic framework whose purpose is to discharge this burden.

Multiscale Bayesian Modeling for RTS Games: An Application to StarCraft AI

Abstract: This paper showcases the use of Bayesian models for real-time strategy (RTS) games AI in three distinct core components: micromanagement (units control), tactics (army moves and positions), and strategy (economy, technology, production, army types). The strength of having end-to-end probabilistic models is that distributions on specific variables can be used to interconnect different models at different levels of abstraction. We applied this modeling to StarCraft, and evaluated each model independently. Along the way, we produced and released a comprehensive data set for RTS machine learning.

REDEN: Named Entity Linking in Digital Literary Editions Using Linked Data Sets

Abstract: This paper proposes a graph-based Named Entity Linking (NEL) algorithm named REDEN for the disambiguation of authors' names in French literary criticism texts and scientific essays from the 19th and early 20th centuries. The algorithm is described and evaluated according to the two phases of NEL as reported in current state of the art, namely, candidate retrieval and candidate selection. REDEN leverages knowledge from different Linked Data sources in order to select candidates for each author mention, subsequently crawls data from other Linked Data sets using equivalence links (e.g., owl:sameAs), and, finally, fuses graphs of homologous individuals into a non-redundant graph well-suited for graph centrality calculation; the resulting graph is used for choosing the best referent. The REDEN algorithm is distributed in open-source and follows current standards in digital editions (TEI) and semantic Web (RDF). Its integration into an editorial workflow of digital editions in Digital humanities and cultural heritage projects is entirely plausible. Experiments are conducted along with the corresponding error analysis in order to test our approach and to help us to study the weaknesses and strengths of our algorithm, thereby to further improvements of REDEN.

Efficient networks in games with local complementarities

Abstract: We address the problem of a planner looking for the efficient network when agents play a network game with local complementarities and links are costly. We show that for general network cost functions, efficient networks belong to the class of nested split graphs. Next, we refine our results and find that, depending on the specification of the network cost function, complete networks, core–periphery networks, dominant group architectures, quasi-star networks, and quasi-complete networks can be efficient.

Actuality Entailments: When the Modality is in the Presupposition

Abstract: In natural language, modals are not implicative. However, when the modality is combined with the perfective, it shows an implicative or factive behavior. This phenomenon is called 'actuality entailment'. We show that actuality entailments arise with goal-oriented modality only and endorse Belnap's view of that goal-oriented modals use historical accessibility with a fixed past and an open future. This modal-theoretic assumption allows us to spell out the precise modal-temporal configuration in which the actuality entailment arises and our predictions are borne out by the data, cross-linguistically. We also show that, when any assumption about the identity of worlds at branching point is leveled - which appears to be the case with generic deontic and opportunity modals, the actuality entailments disappear. We also predict that the entailment disappears with prospectivity. Finally, we argue that modal sentences giving rise to actuality entailments are informative, insofar as the contribution of the modality survives as a presupposition that the modal base is non-homogeneous.

Unity and disunity in evolutionary sciences: process-based analogies open common research avenues for biology and linguistics

Abstract: Background For a long time biologists and linguists have been noticing surprising similarities between the evolution of life forms and languages. Most of the proposed analogies have been rejected. Some, however, have persisted, and some even turned out to be fruitful, inspiring the transfer of methods and models between biology and linguistics up to today. Most proposed analogies were based on a comparison of the research objects rather than the processes that shaped their evolution. Focusing on process-based analogies, however, has the advantage of minimizing the risk of overstating similarities, while at the same time reflecting the common strategy to use processes to explain the evolution of complexity in both fields. Results We compared important evolutionary processes in biology and linguistics and identified processes specific to only one of the two disciplines as well as processes which seem to be analogous, potentially reflecting core evolutionary processes. These new process-based analogies support novel methodological transfer, expanding the application range of biological methods to the field of historical linguistics. We illustrate this by showing (i) how methods dealing with incomplete lineage sorting offer an introgression-free framework to analyze highly mosaic word distributions across languages; (ii) how sequence similarity networks can be used to identify composite and borrowed words across different languages; (iii) how research on partial homology can inspire new methods and models in both fields; and (iv) how constructive neutral evolution provides an original framework for analyzing convergent evolution in languages resulting from common descent (Sapir’s drift). Conclusions Apart from new analogies between evolutionary processes, we also identified processes which are specific to either biology or linguistics. This shows that general evolution cannot be studied from within one discipline alone. In order to get a full picture of evolution, biologists and linguists need to complement their studies, trying to identify cross-disciplinary and discipline-specific evolutionary processes. The fact that we found many process-based analogies favoring transfer from biology to linguistics further shows that certain biological methods and models have a broader scope than previously recognized. This opens fruitful paths for collaboration between the two disciplines.

Atypical Social Judgment and Sensitivity to Perceptual Cues in Autism Spectrum Disorders

Abstract: Evaluation of faces is an important dimension of social relationships. A degraded sensitivity to facial perceptual cues might contribute to atypical social interactions in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The current study investigated whether face based social judgment is atypical in ASD and if so, whether it could be related to a degraded sensitivity to facial perceptual cues. Individuals with ASD (n = 33) and IQ- and age-matched controls (n = 38) were enrolled in this study. Watching a series of photographic or synthetic faces, they had to judge them for “kindness”. In synthetic stimuli, the amount of perceptual cues available could be either large or small. We observed that social judgment was atypical in the ASD group on photographic stimuli, but, contrarily to the prediction based on the degraded sensitivity hypothesis, analyses on synthetic stimuli found a similar performance and a similar effect of the amount of perceptual cues in both groups. Further studies on perceptual differences between photographs and synthetic pictures of faces might help understand atypical social judgment in ASD.

COMT Val158Met Polymorphism Modulates Huntington's Disease Progression.

Abstract: Little is known about the genetic factors modulating the progression of Huntington's disease (HD). Dopamine levels are affected in HD and modulate executive functions, the main cognitive disorder of HD. We investigated whether the Val158Met polymorphism of the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene, which influences dopamine (DA) degradation, affects clinical progression in HD. We carried out a prospective longitudinal multicenter study from 1994 to 2011, on 438 HD gene carriers at different stages of the disease (34 pre-manifest; 172 stage 1; 130 stage 2; 80 stage 3; 17 stage 4; and 5 stage 5), according to Total Functional Capacity (TFC) score. We used the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale to evaluate motor, cognitive, behavioral and functional decline. We genotyped participants for COMT polymorphism (107 Met-homozygous, 114 Val-homozygous and 217 heterozygous). 367 controls of similar ancestry were also genotyped. We compared clinical progression, on each domain, between groups of COMT polymorphisms, using latent-class mixed models accounting for disease duration and number of CAG (cytosine adenine guanine) repeats. We show that HD gene carriers with fewer CAG repeats and with the Val allele in COMT polymorphism displayed slower cognitive decline. The rate of cognitive decline was greater for Met/Met homozygotes, which displayed a better maintenance of cognitive capacity in earlier stages of the disease, but had a worse performance than Val allele carriers later on. COMT polymorphism did not significantly impact functional and behavioral performance. Since COMT polymorphism influences progression in HD, it could be used for stratification in future clinical trials. Moreover, DA treatments based on the specific COMT polymorphism and adapted according to disease duration could potentially slow HD progression.

Metacognition and metarepresentation: is a self-directed theory of mind a precondition for metacognition?

Abstract: Metacognition is often defined as thinking about thinking. It is exempli fied in all the activities through which one tries to predict and evaluate one's own mental dispositions, states and properties for their cognitive adequacy. This article discusses the view that metacognition has metarepresentational structure. Properties such as causal contiguity, epistemic transparency and procedural reflexivity are pres ent in metacognition but missing in metarepresentation, while open-ended recursivity and inferential promiscuity only occur in metarepresentation. It is concluded that, although metarepresentations can redescribe metacognitive contents, metacognition and metarepresentation are functionally distinct.

Analysis of a heterogeneous model for riot dynamics: the effect of censorship of information

Abstract: This paper is concerned with modelling the dynamics of social outbursts of activity, such as protests or riots. In this sequel to our work in Berestycki et al. (Networks and Heterogeneous Media, vol. 10, no. 3, 1–34), written in collaboration with J-P. Nadal, we model the effect of restriction of information and explore its impact on the existence of upheaval waves. The system involves the coupling of an explicit variable representing the intensity of rioting activity and an underlying (implicit) field of social tension. We prove the existence of global solutions to the Cauchy problem in as well as the existence of traveling wave solutions in certain parameter regimes. We furthermore explore the effects of heterogeneities in the environment with the help of numerical simulations, which lead to pulsating waves in certain cases. We analyse the effects of periodic domains as well as the barrier problem with the help of numerical simulations. The barrier problem refers to the potential blockage of a wavefront due to a spatial heterogeneity in the system which leads to an area of low excitability (referred to as the barrier). We conclude with a variety of open problems.

Assertability conditions of epistemic (and fictional) attitudes and mood variation

Abstract: Italian is a well-known exception to the cross-linguistic generalization according to which 'belief' predicates are indicative selectors across languages. We newly propose that languages that select the subjunctive with epistemic predicates allow us to see a systematic polysemy between what we call an expressive-'belief' (featuring only a doxastic dimension) and an inquisitive-'belief' (featuring both a doxastic and an epistemic dimension conveying doxastic certainty (in the assertion) and epistemic uncertainty (in the presupposition)). We offer several previously unseen contrasts proving this distinction and offer a new analysis for mood choice cross-linguistically. We argue that the distinction between expressive and inquisitive attitudes is not an idiosyncrasy of non-factive epistemics. We provide novel data, showing that fictional predicates (dream, imagine) license the subjunctive. We explain the indicative/subjunctive alternation by again appealing to epistemic uncertainty and disentangling expressive from inquisitive-fictional meanings. We thus pave the way for a new typology of attitudes relying on this systematic polysemy and propose new criteria to explain mood distribution cross-linguistically.

Introduction : la tension savoirs-pouvoirs à l’épreuve du gouvernement par les indicateurs de performance

Abstract: Aussi bien dans les Etats qu’au niveau international, il est devenu courant de s’appuyer sur des indicateurs pour fixer des objectifs quantifies et evaluer l’evolution de l’action publique et des fonctionnements administratifs. La recherche en sciences sociales qui traite du developpement des indicateurs de performance est abondante et releve de traditions intellectuelles variees. Beaucoup assimilent ce mouvement a une composante du tournant neo-liberal et a une manifestation du New Public Management. Ce dossier explore les tensions entre l’utilisation d’indicateurs et l’exercice du pouvoir, en soulignant l’ambivalence de cette relation, le chiffre etant tantot craint, tantot desire. Trois dimensions interdependantes sont distinguees pour analyser le gouvernement par les indicateurs : les enjeux de savoir, les logiques de pouvoir et les formes de publicisation qui leur sont associees. Les quatre textes rassembles portent principalement sur le suivi des resultats de politiques publiques, nationales ou internationales, abordes par des auteurs relevant de plusieurs disciplines. Ils rappellent que l’elaboration d’indicateurs participe de la construction des problemes publics pris en charge. Ils confirment l’interet des analyses qui prennent au serieux d’une part la fabrication des nombres et les conventions de calcul retenues et, d’autre part, les dispositifs de gouvernement dans lesquels ils s’inscrivent. Enfin, ils montrent que le gouvernement par les indicateurs debouche sur des formes nouvelles de bureaucratisation.

Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea: Evolving complementarities and loss of institutional capabilities

Abstract: Lechevalier, Sebastien; Debanes, Pauline; Shin, Wonkyu.April, 2016.Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea,Thesis,Paris,FranceFondation France-Japan de L'EHESS,CEAFJP Discussion paper series/16-06,45

What Homophones Say about Words

Abstract: The number of potential meanings for a new word is astronomic. To make the word-learning problem tractable, one must restrict the hypothesis space. To do so, current word learning accounts often incorporate constraints about cognition or about the mature lexicon directly in the learning device. We are concerned with the convexity constraint, which holds that concepts (privileged sets of entities that we think of as “coherent”) do not have gaps (if A and B belong to a concept, so does any entity “between” A and B). To leverage from it a linguistic constraint, learning algorithms have percolated this constraint from concepts, to word forms: some algorithms rely on the possibility that word forms are associated with convex sets of objects. Yet this does have to be the case: homophones are word forms associated with two separate words and meanings. Two sets of experiments show that when evidence suggests that a novel label is associated with a disjoint (non-convex) set of objects, either a) because there is a gap in conceptual space between the learning exemplars for a given word or b) because of the intervention of other lexical items in that gap, adults prefer to postulate homophony, where a single word form is associated with two separate words and meanings, rather than inferring that the word could have a disjunctive, discontinuous meaning. These results about homophony must be integrated to current word learning algorithms. We conclude by arguing for a weaker specialization of word learning algorithms, which too often could miss important constraints by focusing on a restricted empirical basis (e.g., non-homophonous content words).

Aravind Eye Care System as Transformational Entrepreneurship: Spiritual Roots, Multi-Dimensional Impact

Abstract: Initiated almost four decades ago in the form of an 11-bed clinic in Madurai, Aravind Eye Care System with its large network of hospitals, vision centres and community outreach programs is now recognized in India and beyond as a major actor of health care. This paper upholds the view that Aravind’s innovative characteristics call for the creation of a specific category: transformational entrepreneurship. It first clarifies what may be called the ‘Aravind paradox’: Aravind achieves compassion through Taylorism, providing free eye care to poor patients while expanding its robust entrepreneurial model. It then analyses the social, cultural and policy implications of Aravind’s success, notably from the perspective of its contribution to the common good. Finally, the paper identifies the definitional components of transformational entrepreneurship.

French future: Exploring the future ratification hypothesis

Abstract: The paper proposes a unified account of the systematic polysemy of French future (FUT) that does not uniquely rely on Aktionsart. It explains the predominant preference for the temporal interpretation of FUT, appealing to the ‘future ratification hypothesis’. This is a felicity condition that can be satisfied to different degrees and among competing interpretations the one that satisfies it to the highest degree is preferred. The paper also shows that FUT does not convey uncertainty at utterance time (tu), and can be used when the attitude holder knows at tu that the embedded proposition is true.

Why Do They (Still) Sing Stories? Singing Narratives in Tanjung Bunga (Eastern Flores, Lamaholot, Indonesia)

Abstract: In eastern Flores, on the Tanjung Bunga peninsula (among Western Lamaholot speakers), several times a year, ritual narratives (opak) are performed on a square dancing area, where all the clans of the same ceremonial land meet. Three types of narrative are sung, according to three kinds of rituals. The article explains the context, content and performance details of these stories, performed all night long. Why do the various clans continue to sing all these narrative? What values do these long poems have for people who sing them? Until now, studies on this subject have been remarkably few, and not even a partial transcription or translation of these narratives is available. This article offers a preliminary insight into these sung narratives, to show how vital they still are in eastern Flores.

Wireless Community Networks: Towards a Public Policy for the Network Commons?

Abstract: The history of communication technologies is populated with conflicts between centralization and decentralization. While many of these technologies started or have existed at some point of their development as a decentralized structure, often replacing older technological paradigms, nearly all progressively evolved into concentrated clusters of power as a result of industrialization and of the reaffirmation of state sovereignty, following a Schumpeterian process of “creative-destruction” (Wu 2010). However, when the needs of citizens turn out to be systematically overlooked in existing power dynamics, decentralized initiatives may emerge as an attempt to disrupt the dominant hegemony and allow for the democratic re-appropriation of technology—a process that the philosopher Andrew Feenberg calls “subversive rationalization” (Feenberg 1995).

Islamic Positivism and Scientific Truth: Qur’an and Archeology in a Creationist Documentary Film

Abstract: The ambition of “scientific creationism” is to prove that science actually confirms religion. This is especially true in the case of Muslim creationism, which adopts a reasoning of a syllogistic type: divine revelation is truth; good science confirms truth; divine revelation is henceforth scientifically proven. Harun Yahya is a prominent Muslim “creationist” whose website hosts many texts and documentary films, among which “Evidence of the true faith in historical sources”. This is a small audiovisual production which, starting from some archeological files, seeks to demonstrate that Qur’an truth precedes science but is equally proven by it. In this paper, we examine the organization of the scientific and religious argumentative repertoires and, in particular, what in each of them is taken as evidence and gets access to an authoritative status. It leads us to show how much this type of Muslim creationism constitutes a kind of scientism.

What governs a language’s lexicon? Determining the organizing principles of phonological neighbourhood networks

Abstract: The lexicons of natural language can be characterized as a network of words, where each word is linked to phonologically similar words. These networks are called phonological neighbourhood networks (PNNs). In this paper, we investigate the extent to which observed properties of these networks are mathematical consequences of the definition of PNNs, consequences of linguistic restrictions on what possible words can sound like (phonotactics), or consequences of deeper cognitive constraints that govern lexical development. To test this question, we generate random lexicons, with a variety of methods, and derive PNNs from these lexicons. These PNNs are then compared to a real network. We conclude that most observed characteristics of PNNs are either intrinsic to the definition of PNNs, or are phonotactic effects. However, there are some properties—such as extreme assortativity by degree—which may reflect true cognitive organizing principles.