Showing papers in "Environmental and Resource Economics in 1998"

Using choice experiments to value the environment

Abstract: This paper we outline the “choice experiment” approach to environmental valuation. This approach has its roots in Lancaster's characteristics theory of value, in random utility theory and in experimental design. We show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets, such as forests and rivers, can be estimated from pair-wise choices, as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole. These choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function, and to minimise required sample size. Choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods, such as contingent valuation and travel cost-type models, although many design issues remain unresolved. Applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited. We illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent UK study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes. This study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay.

Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investment

Abstract: There has been considerable controversy over the empirical significance of the theoretically predicted pollution haven hypothesis. Generally, empirical papers have failed to find an effect on industrial location of weaker or stricter environmental regulations. In this paper we find strong confirmation of theoretical predictions. We present a statistical test of the impact of environmental regulations on the capital movement of polluting industries. The empirical study is conducted by examining foreign direct investment (FDI) of several US industries, representing industries with high pollution control costs (chemicals and primary metals) as well as industries with more modest pollution control costs (electrical and non-electrical machinery, transportation equipment, and food products). At issue is the effect of the laxity of environmental regulation on FDI. As laxity is not directly observed, we posit two equations, one for FDI determination and one for pollutant emissions, a variable positively correlated with the unobserved variable. We use aggregate national sulfur emissions as the pollutant. Using instruments for the unobserved variable, the statistical results show that the laxity of environmental regulations in a host country is a significant determinant of FDI from the US for heavily polluting industries and is insignificant for less polluting industries.

International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy

Abstract: ne of the major obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement on global warming is the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for individual countries. Long-standing tensions between industrialized and developing countries have raised the issue of equity in burden-sharing. Moreover, individual industrialized nations have pleaded special circumstances and have sought differentiation in their obligations. This paper analyzes alternative rules for distributing tradable carbon dioxide emissions permits. A non-linear programming model, which distinguishes between allocation-based and outcome-based rules, is used to analyze the relative welfare outcomes. The model is applied to the world body of nations and yields several important policy implications.

Disclosure Strategies for Pollution Control

Abstract: Disclosure strategies, which involve public and/or private attempts to increase the availability of information on pollution, form the basis for what some have called the third wave in pollution control policy (after legal regulation – the first wave – and market-based instruments – the second wave). While these strategies have become common in natural resource settings (forest certification and organic farming, for example), they are less familiar in a pollution control context. Yet the number of applications in that context is now growing in both OECD and developing countries. This survey will review what we know and don’t know about the use of disclosure strategies to control pollution and conclude with the author's sense of where further research would be particularly helpful.

Resilience in the Dynamics of Economy-Environment Systems

Abstract: The ecological concept of resilience has begun to inform analysis of change in economy-environment systems. The linkages between resilience and the stability of dynamical systems are discussed, along with its role in understanding of the evolution of such systems. Particular linkages discussed include those between resilience, biodiversity and the sustainability of alternative states. Recent developments in modelling the resilience of joint economy-environment systems suggest the advantages of analysing change in the system as a Markov process, the transition probabilities between states offering a natural measure of the resilience of the system in such states. It is argued that this ‘emergent property’ of the collaboration between ecology and economics has far-reaching implications for the way we think about, model and manage the environmental sustainability of economic development.

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

Abstract: This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions It incorporates methodological refinements of input-output structural decomposition analysis, which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of I-O tables The analysis is performed using a two-tiered KLEM model, which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates The model is used to decompose the sources of change in CO2 emissions in the US over the 1972–82 timeframe using hybrid energy/value tables for the initial and terminal years Results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions

Research issues in nonpoint pollution control

Abstract: Research on nonpoint pollution control instruments has focused primarily on incentives applied either to production inputs that affect nonpoint pollution, or to ambient pollution concentrations. Both approaches may in theory yield an efficient solution. However, input-based incentives will generally have to be second-best to make implementation practical. Design issues include which inputs to monitor and the rates to apply to them. The limited research indicates that second-best, input-based incentives can be effective in adjusting input use in environmentally desirable ways. Alternatively, ambient-based incentives have theoretical appeal because efficient policy design appears to be less complex than for input-based incentives. These incentives have no track record nor close analogues that demonstrate potential effectiveness, however. Research on how households and firms might react in response to ambient-based incentives is needed before these instruments can be seriously considered.

Consequences of environmental tax reform for involuntary unemployment and welfare

Abstract: We investigate the welfare effects of environmental tax reform, i.e. raising environmental taxes and using the proceeds to reduce distortionary taxes on labour. The framework of analysis is a small open economy with involuntary unemployment due to a rigid consumer wage. Environmental tax reform boosts not only environmental quality but also employment if substitution between labour and resources is easy, the production share of the fixed factor is large, and the initial tax rates on resources and profits are small. If the initial tax system is sub-optimal with a negligible tax on resources, profits rise as well.

The Acid Rain Differential Game

Abstract: This paper considers an acid rain differential game. Countries emit sulphur which is partly transferred to other countries. Depositions above critical loads ultimately destroy the soil. Countries face a trade-off between the costs of emission reductions and the damage to the soil due to the depletion of the acid buffers. Because of the transboundary externalities the outcome will depend on whether the countries cooperate or not. This paper presents the cooperative outcome and the open-loop and Markov-perfect Nash equilibria of the acid rain differential game. It will be shown that the depositions always converge to the critical loads but the steady-state levels of the buffer stocks differ. The theory is used to analyse the acid rain differential game for sulphur between Great Britain and Ireland. Finally, some results are given for the whole of Europe.

Estimating the Supply of Environmental Benefits by Agriculture: A French Case Study

Abstract: There has been an increasing public interest in promoting the supply of environmental benefits by agriculture. The Environmentally Sensitive Area scheme addresses this challenge by offering farmers voluntary agreements: entrants are compensated for complying with a package of prescribed farming practices designed to secure conservation goals. This paper emphasizes the uptake of agreements from two perspectives: (i) ex post, it considers why some eligible farmers join a proposed scheme and why some do not, (ii) ex ante, it discusses how non-eligible farmers would behave if they were proposed a well-defined scheme. Ex post perspective refers to farmers' actual behaviour which is observed by the environmental agency, whereas the ex ante perspective is related to their contingent one. A single economic model is derived to deal with both cases. Econometric results from a French case study with respect to wetland preservation are given. There is some consistency between the empirical results obtained in both cases, and to some extent it may be argued that contingent behaviour predicts the actual one.

Are optimal emissions really optimal - four critical issues for economists in the greenhouse

Abstract: Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.

A Damage Based Tax Mechanism for Regulation of Non-Point Emissions

Abstract: In a recent paper Segerson (1988) proposed a novel incentive mechanism for stochastic non-point emissions based on ambient pollution concentrations in nature. For specification of the mechanism when the damage function is nonlinear, the regulator must know polluters’ cost and emission functions. The mechanism also gives incentives to form coalitions among polluters, which, if they are formed, render the mechanism inefficient. In this paper we propose a revised mechanism which eliminates the need for knowledge of polluters’ cost and emission functions and reduces the probability of coalition forming. A standards and pricing version of the revised mechanism with both properties mentioned is also developed.

Emissions Trading and Profitability: The Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop models with and without potential emissions trading and to compare industry profits under the two regimes. The model in which emissions trading is permitted is a nonparametric industry frontier model in the spirit of Fare et al. (1992). It is relative to this model that industry profit is computed. This profit is compared to the profit without emissions trading to give an estimate of the potential gains that can be realised by allowing for emissions trading. The model, which is applied to data for the Swedish pulp and paper industry, suggests that this industry would have had up to 6% (1%) higher profits in 1989 (1990) if emissions trading had been used instead of individual permits to achieve the same total emissions target. Currently there is no permit trading in this industry so our results only model the potential gains that can be made.

Reflections on the Double Dividend Debate

Abstract: We survey the history of carbon taxation, the range of market-based instruments (MBIs) of environmental control, and the state of the double dividend debate, in order to suggest directions for future research into MBIs Returning MBI revenues as lower distortionary taxes rather than as lump sums raises aggregate welfare, but we favour MBIs which raise little or no revenue, for reasons of political acceptability to interest groups At the same time, the overall case for any environmental improvement is weaker because of general equilibrium interactions with prior distortionary taxes Research seems most necessary on quantifying the efficiency benefits of market control of heterogeneous polluters, the benefits of environmental improvement, the tax interaction effect, and the various information costs of an MBI, all on a case-by-case basis for different pollutants and places

On the Theory and Diplomacy of Environmental Treaty-Making

Abstract: International cooperation can be looked at in two ways: as a process and as an outcome. This paper shows how the process of treaty-making can affect treaty outcomes and how treaty design can change the rules of the game of international cooperation.

Multivariate Mixed Models for Open-Ended Contingent Valuation Data: Willingness To Pay For Conservation of Monk Seals

Abstract: Although dichotomous choice (DC) contingent valuation (CV) has been recommended by the US NOAA 'blue-ribbon' panel for large-scale contingent valuation studies, useful information can still be obtained from smaller, open-ended (OE) studies, often undertaken as a precursor to a DC survey. The CV study considered here was carried out in Greece and looked at willingness-to-pay (WTP) for protecting the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus-monachus) in the Aegean area. This is the most endangered seal in the world, and the application of the CV methodology was the first such application in Greece. The OE data consist of two responses: first, a binary response detailing whether or not respondents were in principle prepared to pay for the protection of this seal; secondly, those respondents who answered 'yes' to the first question were then asked to state their maximum WTP for such protection. A multivariate binomial – log-normal mixture model is used to develop a bid function including explanatory variables such as income, sex, age and education. Such a modelling approach provides an alternative to more commonplace tobit estimation. However, the model is extended to include further information which was collected on: (a) an increased WTP amount given in response to information that the initial WTP amount may not be enough to prevent the extinction of the seal; (b) respondents were asked to divide their final WTP amount between use, option and existence values, the latter requiring a multivariate model with four binary and four continuous responses per individual in the same model. The discussion focuses on the methodological issues raised with some comment on the substantive interpretation of results.

The Importance of Ethics in Environmental Economics with a Focus on Existence Values

Abstract: The importance of ethics and fundamental value judgments in environmental economics is high-lighted by discussing the controversial concept of existence values. The social value depends crucially on the social objective, which is not necessarily self-evident, e.g., since some individuals tend to value nature intrinsically. It is shown that the motives behind willingness to pay figures matter for the social value, and the conventional view that people respond to CV questions solely in order to maximize their own utility or well-being is questioned. The importance of being explicit about value judgments is emphasized, and it is argued that environmental economics should consider non-conventional assumptions which take the social context into account to a larger degree.

Testing Temporal Reliability and Carry-over Effect: The Role of Correlated Responses in Test-retest Reliability Studies

Abstract: Test-retest studies help establish the reliability of contingent valuation (CV) responses but must confront the problem that the initial response may influence subsequent responses, and thus weaken conclusions. We develop a model that tests the influence of heterogeneous preferences and previous responses. By estimating a model of sportfishing, we show that correlation between answers to a CV question is induced by heterogeneous preferences.

Research Trends and Opportunities in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics

Abstract: The research questions and topics most likely to emerge in the near term future are assessed. A common theme is that policy issues will be an important driving force, as has generally been true in the past. More specifically, future theoretical advances are expected to occur in the treatment of uncertainty, the incorporation of stock service flows into natural resource analysis, and the incorporation of institutional considerations into models of resource exploitation. Research on valuation is expected to remain vigorous, primarily in the testing of basic assumptions and reconciliation of existing inconsistencies. Opportunities in renewable resource economics center on the incorporation of richer behavioral and technological detail in the general frameworks that already exist. A better understanding of what drives technology, and how environmental agreements can be negotiated and enforced among sovereign nations, are two topics likely to shape future research on global externalities. Finally, questions related to spatial aspects of natural resource use, and matters of land use more generally, seem likely to emerge as important topics on the profession's future research agenda.

Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

Abstract: The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.

Road Transport Externalities

Abstract: During the last decade much progress has been made in defining & measuring the external costs of transport. As the cost of tolling equipment falls, the set of realistic policy options to internalise these externalities will continue to grow. This will determine the research and policy agenda. We make three points. Firstly, empirical work is still necessary to better identify marginal external costs, including congestion, accident and environmental costs. Secondly, any assessment of policy options should treat externalities simultaneously. The use of pricing instruments and emissions standards are discussed within this framework. Thirdly, we emphasise the role of government. Designing the optimal road-pricing institutions requires consideration of horizontal and vertical tax competition, while double-dividend arguments are central to the question of securing public support.

Renegotiation-proof equilibria in a global emission game when players are impatient

Abstract: In a two-country model, in which countries differ with respect to the perception of environmental damages and abatement costs, the stability of international environmental agreements is analyzed in a dynamic framework. Three types of agreements are considered: A socially optimal solution, a uniform emission tax (a tax equally applied in both countries) and a uniform emission reduction quota (an equal percentage emission reduction from a base year). Stability is checked for these agreements according to the concept of renegotiation-proofness. It is shown that the stability requirements depend crucially on the parameters defining the interests of the two countries and the type of agreement. Moreover, it is demonstrated that if punishment options are restricted for some reason the stability of an agreement may suffer. One important result of the paper is that if countries exhibit asymmetric interests, stability in the quota regime is higher than in the tax regime and in the social optimum. This might explain why emission reduction quotas have been so popular in international politics despite recommendations of economists to use market-based instruments.

Joint Implementation: Strategic Reactions and Possible Remedies

Abstract: This paper investigates the promising proposal of Joint Implementation (JI) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This was ultimately the only concrete outcome of the Conference on Climate Change in Berlin, albeit restricted to a pilot phase. The basic idea, given the public's awareness of global warming, sounds economically plausible: The industrialized countries, the only ones required to stabilize and lower carbon emissions, can search for cheaper reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and economies in transition. However, this proposal leads to strategic reactions by developing countries reinforced by the fact that this cheating coincides with the interest of the industrialized country. In short, this proposal will lead to cheating (given asymmetric information) and will thus produce largely faked reductions in emissions. On the constructive side, an efficient mechanism retaining the spirit of JI is derived, which deters strategic reactions. This differs from a usual principal-agent problem through an additional hierarchical layer: a global authority (e.g. the Conference of Parties on Climate Change), an industrialized country and a developing country. The unavoidable loss that is even associated with an optimal scheme due to strategic, behavioural reality (the first best optimum is unattainable, except at the top) leads, of course, to much less glamorous predictions in emission reductions. Moreover, the implicit subsidization scheme focuses and favours on already 'efficient' partners.

Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change

Abstract: Academic and policy debates over climate change risks and policies have stimulated economic research in a variety of fields. In this article I briefly discuss eight overlapping areas of current research in which further effort is particularly warranted. These areas include decision criteria for policy; risk assessment and adaptation; uncertainty and learning; abatement cost and the innovation and diffusion of technology; and the credibility of policies and international agreements. Further analysis in these areas not only will advance academic understanding but also will provide insights of considerable importance to policymakers.

Environmental Appraisal and Environmental Policy in the European Union

Abstract: Revisions to the European Treaty of Union require some form of environmental appraisal – primarily risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis – of regulatory initiatives by the European Commission. A retrospective look at the emergence of environmental appraisal also shows that, while the Commission has made great advances in introducing cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness appraisals in recent years, past environmental decisions and overall environmental policy have not been informed by systematic appraisal techniques. Nor is it clear what role is now being played by risk assessments. While it is impossible to gauge the extent to which systematic appraisal procedures will save on regulatory and compliance expenditures, some indications are provided of the costs of past neglect of these procedures.

Agricultural Intensification, Common Property Resources and the Farm-Household

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of agricultural price and intensification policies for common property resources and welfare of rural communities in developing countries. In doing so we develop a new model for the farm-household that has analytical advantages over the traditional one and that has significant potential for empirical application. The major findings are: Technical assistance that increase productivity of land-intensive agricultural outputs (cereals, livestock, etc.) cause degradation of the communal resources and may cause immiserization. Policies that increase the prices of these goods cause identical effects. By contrast, similar policies applied to labor-intensive outputs (vegetables, tubers, etc.) contribute to improve the common resources and to increase the welfare of the rural communities.

Why Give up Money for the Baltic Sea? – Motives for People's Willingness (or Reluctance) to Pay

Abstract: A contingent valuation survey about a reduction of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea provided data about respondents' motives for their answers to the willingness to pay question. A categorization of the motives allowed an identification of protesters against the valuation scenario. The categorization also illustrated that a teleological ethical perspective is not shared by all respondents and that some respondents perceive human indirect use of ecosystems.

Construct Validity of Dichotomous and Polychotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Questions

Abstract: In this note we conduct construct validity tests for dichotomous choice (DC) and polychotomous choice (PC) contingent valuation questions. Contrary to previous results, we find that DC and PC estimates of willingness to pay are theoretically valid, convergent valid, and similar in terms of statistical precision. Similar to previous results, PC respondents are less sensitive to information than DC respondents. We conclude that DC and PC valuation questions are construct valid for this study. Sequential PC valuation questions could be used in studies where obtaining information about the certainty or intensity of respondent preferences would be useful.

The economics of forest land use in temperate and tropical areas

Abstract: This paper presents economic rules for harvest timing when timber and nontimber goods, services, and ecological functions are produced from forest stands. Forests include stands that are heterogeneous in age, land quality, and distance to market. Rules for allocating land between forest and nonforest use are developed. Key land use margins are identified that are important to land use allocation in temperate and tropical regions (e.g., between unmanaged forest, forest management, and forest conversion). Processes that can change key land use margins are discussed and used to organize recent empirical and theoretical studies of regions where forest land use is in transition, such as where forest land is being converted to alternative nonforest land uses.