Showing papers in "Political Research Quarterly in 2014"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report results from a 2010 survey designed to examine gender stereotypes, candidate evaluations, and voting behavior in U.S. House elections with women candidates running against men.
Abstract: Elections involving women candidates in the United States can offer unsettling examples of voter gender stereotypes, but research on women candidates provides little in the way of available data that allow us to link stereotypes to voter decision-making. This project reports results from a 2010 survey designed to examine gender stereotypes, candidate evaluations, and voting behavior in U.S. House elections with women candidates running against men. In general, stereotypes are not a central part of candidate evaluations or voting decisions, but the political party of the woman candidate can shape their role in candidate evaluations and vote choice.
243 citations
TL;DR: This paper explored the relationship between informal institutions, institutional change and gender equality, using gender equality to scrutinize issues central to institutional change, demonstrating that institutional analyses improve when gender dynamics are incorporated.
Abstract: This paper makes two claims: insights from gender research improve understandings of informal institutions and institutional change, and studying informal institutions helps scholars understand the gap between formal institutional change and outcomes. Informed by institutional analysis and feminist institutionalist scholarship, it explores the relationship between informal institutions, institutional change, and gender equality, using gender equality to scrutinize issues central to institutional change, demonstrating that institutional analyses improve when gender dynamics are incorporated. Showing the gendering of power relations highlights power in institutional change in new ways, improving understandings of why institutional change rarely happens as intended by institutional designers.
182 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate whether a MP's presence on the floor depends on his or her gender and hypothesize that female MPs give in general less speeches in parliament and that this pattern results from debates dealing with “harder” policy issues.
Abstract: Legislative speeches are an important instrument for parties and members of parliament (MPs) to signal their positions and priorities. This raises the question of who speaks when. We evaluate whether a MP’s presence on the floor depends on his or her gender. We hypothesize that female MPs give in general less speeches in parliament and that this pattern results from debates dealing with “harder” policy issues. Our expectations are supported when analyzing a new data set containing information on the number and content of speeches given in the Swedish Riksdag between 2002 and 2010.
126 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that respondents whose demographic characteristics would predict support for marriage equality, but previously did not, were more likely to shift their opinions to be consistent with the new state law, which may explain the rapid diffusion of laws legalizing same-sex in the states.
Abstract: The Iowa Supreme Court adopted an unpopular but unanimous ruling in Varnum v. Brien, which established same-sex marriage. Using a unique panel study conducted immediately before and after the court decision, we evaluate the impact of policy adoption on changing opinions on minority rights. The signaling of new social norms pressured some respondents to modify their expressed attitudes. We find that respondents whose demographic characteristics would predict support for marriage equality, but previously did not, were more likely to shift their opinions to be consistent with the new state law. A policy feedback mechanism may be responsible for the rapid diffusion of laws legalizing same-sex in the states.
84 citations
TL;DR: This article showed that while the size of local immigrant populations exerts virtually no effect on perceived immigration, over-time growth strongly influences citizens' perceptions of immigration into their community and revealed the differential contribution of growth in local Hispanic and Asian populations to perceived immigration.
Abstract: Leading opinion research on immigration has begun to move from size-based to change-based measures of citizens’ ethnic context. This shift is based on the theoretical assumption that over-time growth in immigrant populations is more likely to capture citizens’ attention than their current size. At present, there is no empirical evidence supporting this assumption. This article demonstrates that while the size of local immigrant populations exerts virtually no effect on perceived immigration, over-time growth strongly influences citizens’ perceptions of immigration into their community. In addition, our analyses illuminate the differential contribution of growth in local Hispanic and Asian populations to perceived immigration.
75 citations
TL;DR: This article explored the political effects of the carceral state for the second group, and found that proximal contact mobilizes, an effect that is most pronounced for nonwhites, and showed that the negative effects of personal contact with the criminal justice system are well documented.
Abstract: Rates of contact with the criminal justice system are geographically and racially sensitive such that some groups of people experience contact at much higher rates than others. The negative effects of personal contact with the criminal justice system are well documented. Less well understood are the effects of the criminal justice system on those who have not had personal contact but who are members of groups where contact is a common occurrence. This research explores the political effects of the carceral state for the second group, and finds that proximal contact mobilizes, an effect that is most pronounced for nonwhites.
69 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify and describe two new norm-based strategies for institutional change to address intractable social problems: advocates "foreground" and criticize norms supporting the institutional status quo before either promoting an alternative existing norm via normative reframing of the issue, or creating and promoting an entirely new norm via norm innovation to build support for new institutional arrangements.
Abstract: This paper identifies and describes two new norm-based strategies for institutional change to address intractable social problems. In both strategies, advocates "foreground" and criticize norms supporting the institutional status quo before either promoting an alternative existing norm via normative reframing of the issue, or creating and promoting an entirely new norm via normative innovation to build support for new institutional arrangements. Drawing on examples of institutional change addressing the problems of climate change and violence against women, the analysis illustrates how these strategies are especially effective in the face of opposition from vested interests or problematic existing norms.
68 citations
TL;DR: This paper used data from the Local Elections in America Project (LEAP) to study the supply side of minority representation and found that demographic, electoral, and political factors affect the likelihood a black candidate is on the ballot, and the subsequent impact on the likelihood of a black candidates winning.
Abstract: The ongoing underrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities in most levels of office continues to warrant our attention. However, scholars have only focused on what factors contribute to the electoral success of minorities, without attention to a vital precursor—the supply of minority candidates. Using data from the Local Elections in America Project, this study provides one of the first glimpses into the supply side of minority representation, detailing how demographic, electoral, and political factors affect the likelihood a black candidate is on the ballot, and the subsequent impact on the likelihood of a black candidate winning.
66 citations
TL;DR: Can natural disasters undermine democratic legitimacy? as mentioned in this paper maps a causal pathway from natural disaster damage to shifts in opinion and behavioral tendencies in less established democracies, and shows that natural disasters can cause significant shifts in public opinion and behavior.
Abstract: Can natural disasters undermine democratic legitimacy? This article maps a causal pathway from natural disaster damage to shifts in opinion and behavioral tendencies in less established democracies...
64 citations
TL;DR: The authors evaluate the leading claims about growing polarization along authoritarian/non-augmented lines using American National Election Studies (NES) data from 1952 to 2008, a longer timespan than any analysis to date.
Abstract: Using American National Election Studies (NES) data from 1952 to 2008—a longer timespan than any analysis to date—we evaluate the leading claims about growing polarization along authoritarian/nonau...
63 citations
TL;DR: The authors compare observed voting patterns in 2012 with those in the 2008 General Election and find that racial/ethnic minorities, registered Democrats and those without party affiliation had significant early voting participation drops and that voters who cast ballots on the final Sunday in 2008 were disproportionately unlikely to cast a valid ballot in 2012.
Abstract: In mid-2011, the Florida legislature reduced the state’s early voting period from fourteen days to eight and eliminated the final Sunday of early voting. We compare observed voting patterns in 2012 with those in the 2008 General Election and find that racial/ethnic minorities, registered Democrats, and those without party affiliation had significant early voting participation drops and that voters who cast ballots on the final Sunday in 2008 were disproportionately unlikely to cast a valid ballot in 2012. Florida’s decision to truncate early voting may have diminished participation rates of those already least likely to vote.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined whether the adoption of voter ID regulations affects voter turnout across racial groups, using state-level data and the Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement File (NSF) for 1980 to 2010.
Abstract: Does partisan and racial context have an effect on the likelihood that states will adopt stringent requirements for voting? Our duration analysis shows that Republican governments increase the likelihood that a new law requiring citizens to have a photo ID to vote will be passed. This effect is weakened by minority group size. We then examine whether the adoption of voter ID regulations affects turnout across racial groups. Our analysis, using state-level data and the Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement File (NSF) for 1980 to 2010, offers little evidence for the belief that minority turnout is uniquely affected by voter ID regulations.
TL;DR: The authors argue that a focus on identities of emerging powers is useful for understanding the coalition's negotiation stances and the larger negotiation dynamics between 2009 and 2011, arguing that the emerging powers maintain a hard defining line between themselves and developed states in terms of their climate obligations but accept some differentiation between them and other developing countries, thus adding a destabilizing third category of countries to the climate negotiations.
Abstract: The BASIC countries (Brazil, China, India, South Africa) have played a major role in recent climate negotiations. We argue that a focus on identities—both their individual national identities as emerging powers and their joint identity as the BASIC coalition of emerging powers—is useful for understanding the coalition’s negotiation stances and the larger negotiation dynamics between 2009 and 2011. BASIC countries maintain a hard defining line between themselves and developed states in terms of their climate obligations but accept some differentiation between themselves and other developing countries, thus adding a destabilizing third category of countries to the climate negotiations.
TL;DR: This article examined the impact of campaigns on local turnout in 144 large U.S. citi citi banks using an original data set containing information from information from 144 large Citi banks.
Abstract: Research on local turnout has focused on institutions, with little attention devoted to examining the impact of campaigns. Using an original data set containing information from 144 large U.S. citi...
TL;DR: The authors examines the mixed gender justice outcomes of the International Criminal Court's (ICC) first case, The Prosecutor v. Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, and argues that they were influenced by compe...
Abstract: This article examines the mixed gender justice outcomes of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) first case, The Prosecutor v. Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, and argues that they were influenced by compe...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the 111th Congress to assess representation of Latinos and found that African American and Democratic legislators offer Latinos considerable amounts of substantive representation, and that Latino members are only more active on high salience issue areas compared with non-Latino members.
Abstract: Using an original data set of roll call votes and bill co-sponsorships across three high salience issues (immigration, labor, and education) and one low salience issue (social security), this article analyzes the 111th Congress to assess representation of Latinos. Partisanship is the key determinant in member behavior on voting, not the member’s race or ethnicity or constituent demographics. For bill co-sponsorships, Latino members are only more active on high salience issue areas compared with non-Latino members. Increases in Latino population do not influence behavior. The results also indicate that African American and Democratic legislators offer Latinos considerable amounts of substantive representation.
TL;DR: Zhang et al. as mentioned in this paper argue that sociodemographics, political attitudes, and performance issues mold central government satisfaction, and conclude that regional differences, national trust, and local policy success are of special importance in shaping national government support.
Abstract: The notion of a Chinese popularity function may seem surprising, given its authoritarian nature. However, exploring the possibility of indirect popularity functions in nondemocratic systems, we articulate a model of national government support in China. The model argues that sociodemographics, political attitudes, and performance issues mold central government satisfaction. Drawing on a countrywide 2008 public opinion survey, we conclude that regional differences, national trust, and local policy success are of special importance in shaping national government support. The findings, which exhibit theoretical and statistical appeal, lay the groundwork for further investigation of popularity functions in China.
TL;DR: This paper found that public reaction to judicial consensus is dependent on the ideological salience of the issue involved and that, contrary to conventional wisdom and recent findings, dissent can foster acceptance of rulings among the Court's opponents by suggesting evidence of procedural justice.
Abstract: Do judicial dissents affect mass politics? The conventional wisdom is that unanimous rulings boost support for Supreme Court decisions, while division fuels popular opposition. However, empirical analysis of public reaction to unanimity and dissent is sparse, incomplete, and inconsistent. Through a series of survey experiments, I expand upon existing research on public opinion of judicial unity. I find that reaction to judicial consensus is dependent on the ideological salience of the issue involved and that, contrary to conventional wisdom and recent findings, dissent can foster acceptance of rulings among the Court’s opponents by suggesting evidence of procedural justice.
TL;DR: This article found that both blank and null voting were driven by political concerns, though null voting was more common among politically sophisticated individuals, and that blank and spoiled votes are empirically differentiable and politically informative.
Abstract: Voters often make the effort to go to the polls but effectively throw their vote away by leaving their ballot blank or intentionally spoiled. Typically construed as anomalous or errant, we argue that blank and spoiled ballots are empirically differentiable and politically informative. We consider self-reported vote choice from a nationally representative survey following the 2011 Bolivian elections, in which 60 percent of votes cast were blank or spoiled. We estimate a multinomial logit model, finding that both blank and null voting were driven by political concerns, though null voting was more common among politically sophisticated individuals.
TL;DR: The authors assesses whether disaffection and disconnection from politics correlate with protest, and test more refined measures of protest to better understand protesters' disaffections with and disconnections from politics.
Abstract: There are good reasons to test more refined measures of protest to better understand protesters’ disaffection with and disconnection from politics. This article assesses whether disaffection and di...
TL;DR: This paper used a Heckman selection model to assess re-election rates by incumbent candidate gender, conditional on the re-nomination of incumbents, and found that female incumbents are just as likely to be renominated and re-elected as their male counterparts.
Abstract: The incumbency advantage is typically thought to constrain female political representation, but can female incumbency provide a signal to parties that reduces strategic gender bias? We argue that once women prove they can win elections, parties will revise their strategic evaluations of their value as candidates. We test this using an original dataset of twenty-one Chilean elections between 1989 and 2012. We use a Heckman selection model to assess re-election rates by incumbent candidate gender, conditional on the re-nomination of incumbents. We find that female incumbents are just as likely to be re-nominated and re-elected as their male counterparts.
TL;DR: This article showed that an increase in resource dependence decreases an autocracy's likelihood of being democratic over both the short term and long term but has no appreciable effect on democracies' likelihood of persisting.
Abstract: Extant theoretical work on the political resource curse implies that dependence on resource revenues should decrease autocracies’ likelihood of democratizing but not necessarily affect democracies’ chances of survival. Yet most previous empirical studies estimate models that are ill-suited to address this claim. We improve upon previous studies, estimating a dynamic logit model using data from 166 countries, covering the period from 1816 to 2006. We find that an increase in resource dependence decreases an autocracy’s likelihood of being democratic over both the short term and long term but has no appreciable effect on democracies’ likelihood of persisting.
TL;DR: This article used field experiments in Texas and Wisconsin to address voter mobilization and turnout by evaluating nonpartisan get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages delivered via mail during 2010 gubernatorial campaigns.
Abstract: We use field experiments in Texas and Wisconsin to address voter mobilization and turnout by evaluating nonpartisan get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages delivered via mail during 2010 gubernatorial campaigns. We manipulate three factors in the messages: social pressure, descriptive- and injunctive-voting norm consistency, and message timing. The results present an initial field-based confirmation that norm-consistent messages increase turnout; demonstrate significant message timing effects, which are mediated by state election rules; and indicate social pressure’s effectiveness varies significantly more than previously found. These diverse findings suggest researchers place a greater emphasis on context when evaluating experiments and the effects of mobilization messages.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a theoretical argument connecting external (international) transparency to increases in transnational terrorism, and internal (domestic) transparency with increases in domestic terrorism and find empirical support for their theory by analyzing the effects of measures of transparency on counts of terrorist attacks in as many as 144 countries for time periods as long as 1970 to 2006.
Abstract: Information transparency is frequently heralded as a positive regime feature. However, does information transparency produce negative side effects such as increased terrorist activity? We theorize that freer transmission of information creates opportunities for radical dissidents to employ political violence to draw attention to their agendas. We build a theoretical argument connecting external (international) transparency to increases in transnational terrorism, and internal (domestic) transparency to increases in domestic terrorism. We find empirical support for our theory by analyzing the effects of measures of transparency on counts of terrorist attacks in as many as 144 countries for time periods as long as 1970 to 2006.
TL;DR: This paper explored the relationship between electoral participation and income redistribution by way of social transfers, using data from the European Social Survey, the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, and the Luxembourg Income Study.
Abstract: This study explores the relationship between electoral participation and income redistribution by way of social transfers, using data from the European Social Survey, the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, and the Luxembourg Income Study. It extends previous research by measuring the income skew of turnout rather than using average turnout as a proxy for its income bias. We find that, controlling for a number of other variables, the income skew of turnout is negatively related to transfer redistribution and that electoral participation by those in poverty is positively associated with redistribution in their favor.
TL;DR: The authors have developed a variety of theories to explain national and cross-national differences in democratic support, however, they have paid little attention to the cogni cation of these theories.
Abstract: Scholars of democratization have developed a variety of theories to explain national and cross-national differences in democratic support. These theories, however, pay little attention to the cogni...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use a unique data set that surveys the views of a large cross-section of urban residents to provide greater insight into this question and demonstrate clear differences in perceived responsiveness across demographic and political groups with racial and ethnic minorities, the poor and liberals expressing less satisfaction with local outcomes.
Abstract: Although there is widespread concern about bias in American democracy, convincing tests of differential responsiveness are rare. We use a unique data set that surveys the views of a large cross-section of urban residents to provide greater insight into this question. We demonstrate clear differences in perceived responsiveness across demographic and political groups with racial and ethnic minorities, the poor, and liberals expressing less satisfaction with local outcomes. Our analysis suggests that these differences are unlikely to be due to underlying differences in individual attitudes but instead appear to stem from real differences in local conditions and perceived governmental responsiveness.
TL;DR: The authors argue that variables that tap shared race-related attributes such as party identification, assessments of the economy, as well as other demographic characteristics can be used to predict voters' preferences.
Abstract: Traditional vote-choice models include variables such as party identification, assessments of the economy, as well as other demographic characteristics. We argue that variables that tap shared raci...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors extend the study of factors that affect the supply of and demand for women's political power in third-wave democracies, and propose an approach to improve their understanding of how women are gaining access to political power.
Abstract: This article seeks to improve our understanding of how women are gaining access to political power in third wave democracies. I extend the study of factors that affect the supply of and demand for ...
TL;DR: This paper examined why certain immigrant groups participated in the 2006 protest wave more than others and why the city mobilized less compared with other major immigrant metropolises, finding that certain groups participated more because of how the issue of "illegal immigration" was racialized and framed by the media, and because of the disproportionate impact the proposed legislation would have had on them.
Abstract: This article uses the case New York City to examine why certain immigrant groups participated in the 2006 protest wave more than others and why the city mobilized less compared with other major immigrant metropolises. The findings indicate that certain immigrant groups participated more than others because of how the issue of “illegal immigration” was racialized and framed by the media, and because of the disproportionate impact the proposed legislation would have had on them. The data presented illustrate how the city’s heterogeneous population served to diminish its capacity to produce the magnitude of mobilization found in other large immigrant cities.