Showing papers in "Population Research and Policy Review in 2004"
TL;DR: This article examined whether children born into premarital cohabitation and first marriages experience similar rates of parental disruption, and whether marriage among cohabiting parents enhances union stability, and they found that white, black and Hispanic children whose cohabitating parents marry do not experience the same levels of family stability as those born to married parents.
Abstract: Children are increasingly born into cohabiting parent families, but we know little to date about the implications of this family pattern for children's lives. We examine whether children born into premarital cohabitation and first marriages experience similar rates of parental disruption, and whether marriage among cohabiting parents enhances union stability. These issues are important because past research has linked instability in family structure with lower levels of child well-being. Drawing on the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, we find that white, black and Hispanic children born to cohabiting parents experience greater levels of instability than children born to married parents. Moreover, black and Hispanic children whose cohabiting parents marry do not experience the same levels of family stability as those born to married parents; among white children, however, the marriage of cohabiting parents raises levels of family stability to that experienced by children born in marriage. The findings from this paper contribute to the debate about the benefits of marriage for children.
256 citations
TL;DR: The Nam-Powers-Boyd Occupational Status Scale for the year 2000 as mentioned in this paper was introduced in 2000 and is the sixth in a decennial series of such scales that were initiated at the Census Bureau a half century earlier.
Abstract: The Nam–Powers–Boyd Occupational Status Scale for the year 2000 is introduced here. It is the sixth in a decennial series of such scales that were initiated at the Census Bureau a half century earlier. The bureau's examination of occupational status actually goes back to the end of the 19th century and its thread continues today. The historical background of the 2000 scale, the methodology for constructing the scores, some comparisons with other occupational scales, the 2000 scores themselves, and applications of the 2000 scores are presented.
180 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed hypotheses regarding patterns of entry into marriage and cohabitation for the main religious groups in the United States: mainline Protestants, conservative Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, Jews, and the unaffiliated.
Abstract: Previous research has shown that the faith in which a young woman is brought up has important effects on the subjective costs and/or benefits of many decisions that she makes over the life cycle, including schooling, employment, and fertility. Based on this evidence, the present paper develops hypotheses regarding patterns of entry into marriage and cohabitation for the main religious groups in the United States: mainline Protestants, conservative Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, Jews, and the unaffiliated. The empirical results, based on young women from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, are generally supportive of the hypotheses.
104 citations
TL;DR: It was found that age group, sex, living arrangement, educational attainment, and occupational history were associated significantly with the self-rated health status of the oldest-old Chinese, and the elderly with lower social status tended tonegatively evaluate health status.
Abstract: This study explores the correlation between sociodemographic factors and theself-rated health status of the oldest-old Chinese (80 and older) The data werefrom the Healthy Longevity Survey in China conducted in 1998 We applied astereotype ordered regression model to capture the ordinal nature of the responsevariable We found that age group, sex, living arrangement, educational attainment,and occupational history were associated significantly with the self-rated healthstatus of the oldest-old Chinese, and the elderly with lower social status tended tonegatively evaluate health status We reached the conclusions after controlling suchvariables as the capacity of physical performance of daily activities and chronic diseases
67 citations
TL;DR: The authors explored the patterns of trip duration for Mexican immigrants to the United States and found that the most important factors leading to changes in trip duration are US immigration policy, the conditions of the Mexican economy, and the development of social networks.
Abstract: Using the Mexican Migration Project sample, this paper explores the patterns of trip duration for Mexican immigrants to the United States and the reasons for the patterns observed. I found that the most important factors leading to changes in trip duration are US immigration policy, the conditions of the Mexican economy, and the development of social networks. It appears that the legalization of many immigrants after passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act encouraged short-term migration, but the build-up at the US-Mexico border may have changed this pattern leading to longer duration in the United States. Furthermore, changes in the exchange rate, a devaluation of the peso relative to the dollar, for example, leads to more return migration, as immigrants are able to get more value for his dollars in Mexico. On the other hand, an expansion of networks and resources for immigrants in the United States leads to longer duration in the United States.
67 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of a preliminary set of micropolitan areas with more highly urbanized territory and with territory outside core-based statistical areas, to answer questions about the micropolitan category's conceptual validity.
Abstract: With the official designation of micropolitan areas in June 2003, as part of the new core-based statistical area system, non-metropolitan territory is no longer an undifferentiated residual. In this paper we compare the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of a preliminary set of micropolitan areas with more highly urbanized territory and with territory outside core-based statistical areas, to answer questions about the micropolitan category's conceptual validity. Demographic and economic data are used, along with a mail survey of county officials in a random sample of small metro- politan, micropolitan, and non-core-based statistical areas (non-CBSAs). The analysis shows substantial differentiation between micropolitan and non-CBSA areas, and dem- onstrates the importance of distinguishing between these two types of non-metropolitan areas. As an intermediate category, micropolitan areas provide stability to the decade- to-decade swings in non-metropolitan population change during periods of higher out- migration, but share almost equally with non-CBSA areas in attracting migrants during periods of high non-metropolitan in-migration. In terms of services available and their function as urban centers, micropolitan areas are intermediate between small metro- politan and non-CBSA areas, but more similar to small metropolitan areas.
66 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together, and found that higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.
Abstract: We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.
60 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the impact of family cap policies on the birth rates of single, less-educated women with children using Current Population Survey data from 1989 to 1999, using the first five states that were granted waivers from the Department of Health and Human Services to implement family caps as natural experiments.
Abstract: During the 1990s, 23 states implemented family cap policies as a means to reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among welfare recipients. Using Current Population Survey data from 1989 to 1999, we examine the impact of family cap policies on the birth rates of single, less-educated women with children. We use the first five states that were granted waivers from the Department of Health and Human Services to implement family caps as “natural experiments.” Specifically, we compare trends in out-of-wedlock birth rates in Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia to trends in states that did not implement family caps or any other waivers prior to the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. We employ several techniques to increase the credibility of results from our “natural experiment,” such as the inclusion of multiple comparison groups, controls for differential time trends, and “difference-in-difference-in-differences” estimators. Our regression estimates generally do not provide evidence that family cap policies reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among single, less-educated women with children.
48 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare skipped-generation and shared-care households, in which a grandparent and grandchild coreside but no parent is present, to three-generation shared care households in which the grandparent claims primary responsibility for the grandchild.
Abstract: As part of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act, the Census Bureau is required to determine how many grandparents are serving as caregivers to a grandchild. Using data from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey, this paper presents demographic information on two types of grandparent households, and outlines the challenges associated with use of the new questions about grandparent care developed by the Census Bureau. We compare skipped-generation households, in which a grandparent and grandchild coreside but no parent is present, to three-generation shared-care households in which the grandparent claims primary responsibility for the grandchild. We focus on two geographic regions of the United States, New England and the Deep South, providing the first report on the prevalence and characteristics of these households, and the extent to which these attributes are geographically variable. We estimate that the population of three-generation shared-care families is at least as large as the population ofskipped-generation grandparent care families.We identify a number of differences between skipped-generation and shared-care households, especially with respect to the age of the grandchildren involved and the levels of economic hardship. Significant regional differences are also observed, with grandparent care households of both types being more common in the Deep South than in New England. We conclude that data using these new questions have the potential to greatly enrich our demographic understanding of grandparent households by shedding new light on a type of grandparent care often hidden from analysis: grandparents who are responsible for grandchildren in three-generation households.
43 citations
Abstract: As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap
41 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the impact of immigrant receptivity attitudes on the occupational attainment of male and female immigrants, and test the hypotheses that receptivity attitudestoward immigrants held by citizens of metropolitan and regional labor markets will have a direct impact, and/or interact with the educational human capital ofimmigrants, in explaining the occupational attainments of male or female immigrants.
Abstract: This paper seeks to extend assimilation scholarship by focusing on the impact ofimmigrant receptivity attitudes. We test the hypotheses that receptivity attitudestoward immigrants held by citizens of metropolitan and regional labor marketswill have a direct impact, and/or interact with the educational human capital ofimmigrants, in explaining the occupational attainment of male and female immigrantworkers. Multi-level modeling is used to test the impact of aggregated immigrantreceptivity attitude measures, derived from the General Social Survey, which arespatially merged with immigrant worker human capital, individual-level assimilation,and area labor market indicators to predict managerial/professional and service/laboroccupation attainment of immigrant workers from a merged 1995–97 CurrentPopulation Survey data file. The results provide support for the receptivity attitudesthesis with statistically significant effects on service and labor attainment, but showminimal effects on managerial and professional occupational attainment. The keyreceptivity dimensions affecting occupational attainment are native-born citizens'attitudes concerning the impact of immigrants on American society, and attitudeson English-only language policies. The results show no systematic support for thereverse causation hypothesis that the occupational patterns of immigrants determinethe immigrant receptivity attitudes of citizens.
TL;DR: Following the 1978–1987 admission cohorts for the first decade or more of permanent residence, this study finds significant covariate effects on the timing of naturalization by origin, mode of entry, and immigrant visa class, net other influences of demographic and background characteristics.
Abstract: The saga of U.S. immigrant naturalization is merely sketched for about 25 million immigrants entered in three decades of renewed immigration. This study documents naturalization outcomes for immigrants from ten major countries of origin, using administrative records on immigrants and naturalizations. Following the 1978–1987 admission cohorts for the first decade or more of permanent residence, this study finds significant covariate effects on the timing of naturalization by origin, mode of entry, and immigrant visa class, net other influences of demographic and background characteristics. Immigrants from the Philippines, Vietnam, and China naturalized more quickly than immigrants from India, Korea, Cuba, Colombia, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. Those who adjusted from statuses as nonimmigrants, refugees, or asylees became naturalized citizens more quickly. Those immigrants with employment sponsorship naturalized faster than family-sponsored immigrants. Spouses of citizens, spouses of permanent residents, spouses of siblings of citizens, and spouses of sons and daughters of citizens naturalized faster than some other immigrants. Gender was not significant in the multivariate analysis, but further research will more fully explore sex-specific variation in the timing of naturalization given likely variation in women's representation by origin and admission categories.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000, and investigate the influence of differences in population size and growth rate on estimation errors.
Abstract: The housing unit (HU) method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. These estimates are used for a wide variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes. Given their importance, periodic evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this article, we evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000. We investigate the influence of differences in population size and growth rate on estimation errors; compare the accuracy of several alternative techniques for estimating each of the major components of the HU method; compare the accuracy of 2000 estimates with that of estimates produced in 1980 and 1990; compare the accuracy of HU population estimates with that of estimates derived from other estimation methods; consider the role of professional judgment and the use of averaging in the construction of population estimates; and explore the impact of controlling one set of estimates to another. Our results confirm a number of findings that have been reported before and provide empirical evidence on several issues that have received little attention in the literature. We conclude with several observations regarding future directions in population estimation research.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the characteristics of Mexican mi- grants to the Pacific Northwest with characteristics of Mexicans who migrate to other parts of the U.S. and find that Mexican migrants to the PNW earn lower wages, are less likely to migrate illegally, and more commonly work in agriculture.
Abstract: The migration of Mexicans to the Pacific Northwest region (PNW) of the United States has received little attention in scholarly literature. This is unfortunate, as Mexican migration has significantly affected this region, both economically and culturally. Using data supplied by the Mexican Migration Project, we compare the characteristics of Mexican mi- grants to the Pacific Northwest with characteristics of Mexicans who migrate to other parts of the U.S. The data reveal significant differences between the two groups: Mexican migrants to the PNW earn lower U.S. wages, are less likely to migrate illegally, and more commonly work in agriculture. They also are more transitory in nature, making more frequent, shorter trips to the U.S. Most interesting is that PNW migrants send significantly more money back home compared to Mexican migrants in other parts of the U.S., even after controlling for the aforementioned differences in individual characteristics.
TL;DR: The authors used data from the 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship.
Abstract: This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits do not directly contribute to headship but rather contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that a mother will enter welfare and consequently remain a single mother for longer. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with more stable arrangements for both headship and welfare participation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a case study of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002.
Abstract: Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability afforded these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because, among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conflict that exists when resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these “fugitive” methods serve to keep the potential for conflict high because of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they are adopted.
TL;DR: This article examined the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks using data from the 1986-1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index and found that non-metropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas.
Abstract: Prior research on mortality for U.S. blacks focuses on the detrimental effects of minority concentration and residential segregation in metropolitan areas on health outcomes. To date, few studies have examined this relationship outside of large U.S. central cities. In this paper, we extend current research on the minority concentration and mortality relationship to explain the rural advantage in mortality for nonmetropolitan blacks. Using data from the 1986–1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index, we examine the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks. Our findings indicate that blacks in nonmetropolitan areas experience a lower risk of mortality than metropolitan central city blacks after indicators of socio-economic and health status are controlled. Our findings also point to the importance of accounting for contextual factors. Net of individual level controls, minority concentration exerts differential effects across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, such that nonmetropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas. This finding suggests a reconceptualization of the meaning for minority concentration with respect to studies of health outcomes in nonmetropolitan communities.
TL;DR: This paper examined the relationship between disabilities in families and exits from welfare and found that the presence of a child with a disability limits the chances that a mother with disability will leave welfare. But they did not examine the impact of disabilities on the mother's own disability.
Abstract: This research examines the relationship between disabilities in families and exits from welfare. Controlling for variations in characteristics known to be associated with welfare exits, this study investigates and documents that specific configurations of disabilities in families are also strongly associated with reduced rates of welfare exits. The impact of a child with a disability on welfare exits is similar to the mother's own disability, with an impact equivalent in magnitude to minority status. The presence of a child with a disability limits the chances that a mother with disability will leave welfare. Our findings add to the literature on welfare dependency and have implications for welfare reforms that emphasize work, self-sufficiency, and reducing poverty.
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the effect of welfare reform on the attitudes and behaviors of women subject to the reforms and found that welfare recipients in Delaware and Indiana reported that their attitudes were affected by reform, but single parents can raise a child as well as married parents.
Abstract: The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) put the need for attitudinal change at the center of efforts to help welfare recipients become economically independent, avoid out-of-wedlock childbearing, and embrace marriage. In this paper, we focus specifically on attitudes, analyzing both differences in values and attitudes between welfare recipients and other women on the cusp of reform, as well as the effects of TANF reforms in two states on the attitudes and behaviors of women subject to the reforms. National data reveal few differences in values and attitudes between welfare recipients and other women once background characteristics are held constant. A majority of both groups believes that prospective parents should marry, but single parents can raise a child as well as married parents. Personal aspirations for marriage and further childbearing also are fairly similar. These similarities may be one reason that the literature has shown TANF to have limited effects on marriage and childbearing. A second set of analyses investigates the degree to which welfare recipients in Delaware and Indiana report that reforms affected their aspirations for marriage and childbearing. Self-reported impacts are greater for fertility than marriage attitudes. Even among those who report their attitudes were affected by reform, recipients appear to have difficulty acting on their marital and childbearing desires, dampening any effects on behavior. These findings reinforce the current sense among researchers and policy makers that more direct reforms are needed to have a substantial effect on marriage and out-of-wedlock childbearing.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors divide donor trends for population assistance into five distinct epochs: until the mid-1960s, the population hysteria of the 1960s and 1970s, Bucharest Conference and beyond, the 1984 Mexico City conference, and the 1990s.
Abstract: Using population assistance data, this study divides donor trends for population assistance into five distinct epochs: until the mid-1960s, the population hysteria of the 1960s and 1970s, Bucharest Conference and beyond, the 1984 Mexico City conference, and the 1990s. A number of decisive events, as well as changing views of the population problem, characterise each period and have affected the sums of population assistance from donor nations. Taking a long-term view of global population assistance, the research shows that four factors account for most of the historical funding trends from primary donors: the association between population assistance and foreign aid, the role of alarmists and doomsayers in the public debate over population issues, individuals in a position of power within donor governments, and decennial international population conferences.
MDRC1
TL;DR: The authors found no effect overall but contrasting effects for several subgroups, including new applicants to MFIP and new applicants who showed a trend toward higher rates of divorce relative to the control group.
Abstract: Do welfare reform policies affect marital stability among two-parent families? Long term findings from an experiment in Minnesota, evaluated via a random assignment design, contribute to the little evidence to date about whether or not welfare and income-support policies can affect marital stability. In 1994, Minnesota began to test a major welfare reform initiative that emphasized financial incentives for work, a participation requirement for long-term recipients, and the simplification of rules and procedures for receiving public assistance. An analysis of this program's long-run effects on marital stability for two-parent families finds no effect overall but contrasting effects for several subgroups. MFIP particularly lowered the rate of divorce among families who were already receiving welfare when they entered the study. There are less consistent effects among new applicants to MFIP – who show a trend toward higher rates of divorce relative to the control group.
TL;DR: In this article, the mortality experiences of the Navajo and those of the total U.S. population were compared with those of other Americans; specific Native American tribal populations have not been examined, however.
Abstract: Mortality crossovers at older ages have been observed when comparing different populations, particularly disadvantaged populations with advantaged populations. A growing body of research indicates that mortality convergences to actual crossovers are real and not a result of overstating of age at the older ages. Only recently have the mortality experiences of Native Americans been compared with those of other Americans; specific Native American tribal populations have not been examined, however. Presented here are the mortality experiences of the Navajo and those of the total U.S. population and U.S. white population since the mid-20th century. Comparison provides further support to findings that convergences and crossovers actually occur between disadvantaged and advantaged populations.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a new direct measure to quantify the quantity of child, sick, and elderly care provided by house-holds using a new, direct measure.
Abstract: This paper valued the quantity of child, sick, and elderly care provided by house- holds using a new, direct measure. Such measures add to the literature that estimates the size of the contribution of non-market work by household members, particularly women, and to literature about valuation of childcare. This production remains unvalued in standard national income accounts. Traditional attempts to quantify this care multiplied care-giver hours by a wage rate, a method that suffers from several drawbacks, including omitting the contributions of anything but labor, the inability to handle joint production, and the use of an arbitrary wage rate. This study avoided these problems by valuing the amount of care with its market price based on data from a small urban area. The mean value was $3,547 annually (97 percent of it childcare) for all sample households and $9,610 for those providing care. The results afforded evidence of scale economies in parental childcare and quantified care furnished by different kinds of providers.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that none of these three perspectives is sufficient and each is necessary to uphold socially acceptable responses to population growth in the context of broader challenges of sustainability.
Abstract: If social scientists are to provide a more useful contribution to international debates over population and environment, we must find ways to combine the insights of our competing theoretical traditions. Political economy, rational choice, and cultural institutionalist perspectives are each associated with a different assessment and characterization of the population “problem”, as well as divergent strategies of response, prioritizing in turn the goals of equity, efficiency, and cultural identity. The principal argument of this paper is that these three perspectives, and the goals which they embody, are like the three legs of a stool; none is sufficient and each is necessary to uphold socially acceptable responses to population growth in the context of broader challenges of sustainability. Each perspective is reviewed in turn, distinguishing narrow and polarizing applications that trivialize the way social and economic systems rely on the natural environment from applications that are useful in fashioning a more integrated approach. The paper concludes with reflections on how this approach may support and enrich a focus on sustainable livelihoods in development planning.
TL;DR: The authors examined the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background and found that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level.
Abstract: Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are poor children of more educated parents.