Showing papers in "The Journal of Politics in 1986"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the optimal strategy for risk-averse candidates will be to promise redistributions first and foremost to their reelection constituency and thereby to maintain existing political coalitions.
Abstract: Spatial models of electoral competition typically simplify the analysis by ignoring the question of internal constituency politics: constituencies are modeled simply as a distribution of ideal points along a set of issue dimensions. Matters related to the stability of divergent electoral coalitions have rarely been addressed. We explicitly take into account how differential rates of support by various groups in a constituency will influence candidates' campaign promises and the likelihood that stable electoral coalitions will be forged. Viewing campaign platforms as promised redistributions of welfare, we argue that the optimal strategy for risk-averse candidates will be to promise redistributions first and foremost to their reelection constituency and thereby to maintain existing political coalitions. We use evidence from the urban services literature to support our propositions.
1,117Â citations
TL;DR: The authors used data from the Commission on Administrative Review of the House of Representatives in the 95th Congress to estimate the impact of PAC campaign contributions and several other independent variables, including indicators of a member's tenure, legislative position, and electoral security, on the number of minutes that members spent in their office with representatives of organized interest groups during a typical workweek.
Abstract: Political scientists have pointed out that access is an important motivation for campaign contributions, but their evidence to date is based largely on case study observations, on the opinions of participants and observers, and on inferences from indirect quantitative evidence. This paper provides more direct quantitative evidence on the topic, using data from the Commission on Administrative Review of the House of Representatives in the 95th Congress. It uses tobit analysis to estimate the impact of PAC campaign contributions and several other independent variables, including indicators of a member's tenure, legislative position, and electoral security, on the number of minutes that members spent in their office with representatives of organized interest groups during a typical workweek. The results suggest, but do not prove, that money does indeed buy access.
226Â citations
TL;DR: This paper found that retrospective evaluations are influenced by personal economic circumstances and knowledge about national economic conditions, and that the lag times in the public's learning of economic trends differs significantly for inflation and unemployment, with the public reacting more quickly to changes in unemployment.
Abstract: In recent years, a great deal of evidence has been generated regarding the impact of retrospective evaluations of the economy on vote choice. Yet little attention has been focused on the actual process whereby such evaluations are formed. This paper employs panel data to test a model of retrospective evaluations of inflation and unemployment. Our findings suggest, first, that retrospective evaluations are influenced by personal economic circumstances and knowledge about national economic conditions. And second, our findings indicate that the lag times in the public's learning of economic trends differs significantly for inflation and unemployment, with the public reacting more quickly to changes in unemployment. The reasons for such findings and their political implications are discussed.
213Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a rational expectations approach to model elections with incomplete information, and show that voters require only very general information to vote correctly, and that this information can be deduced from exactly those cues that are commonly interpreted as substitutes for "voting on the issues."
Abstract: A considerable literature argues that poor information among voters produces an elitist or class bias in public policy. Owing to the complexity of public issues and their generally slight impact on outcomes, citizens fail to invest in information, and in their voting decisions rely instead on cues such as party labels, the opinions of friends, and interest group endorsements. As a result, political entrepreneurs are unable to mobilize effectively the general electorate to vote in their own self-interest. This essay takes issue with some theoretical premises of this argument. Using a rational expectations approach to modeling elections with incomplete information, we show first that citizens require only very general information to vote correctly. Second, this information can be deduced from exactly those cues that are commonly interpreted as substitutes for "voting on the issues." Finally, even if interest groups attempt to influence candidate positions with money, equilibria exist to the election game th...
143Â citations
TL;DR: This article examined the relationship between Hispanic representation on school boards and public policy outputs that affect Hispanic students using a data set of 35 large urban school districts and found that Hispanic teachers have a major impact on the educational environment of the Hispanic student.
Abstract: This research examines the relationship between Hispanic representation on school boards and public policy outputs that affect Hispanic students. Using a data set of 35 large urban school districts, several questions are examined. First, the level of Hispanic representation on school boards is measured and related to types of electoral structure. Second, Hispanic representation on school boards is found to be a significant determinant of Hispanic employment as teachers. Third, Hispanic teachers have a major impact on the educational environment of the Hispanic student. Districts with larger percentages of Hispanic teachers also have Hispanic students who are more likely to complete school and more likely to attend college. These findings contribute to the growing literature linking passive representation with active representation.
117Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined state high court decision making on sex discrimination cases for the period 1971-81 using logistic regression, several policy models drawn from the comparative state policy and judicial behavior literatures are employed to predict court votes onsex discrimination appeals.
Abstract: This paper examines state high court decision making on sex discrimination cases for the period 1971-81. Using logistic regression, several policy models drawn from the comparative state policy and judicial behavior literatures are employed to predict court votes on sex discrimination appeals. The final model emphasizes the importance of policy type, selection system, court reputation, sex of the appellent, and the presence of at least one woman on the court.
111Â citations
TL;DR: This paper applied a fact model of decision making to the justices of the United States Supreme Court and found that a significant proportion of the variation in each justice's decisions can be explained by a small number of facts.
Abstract: This paper applies a fact model of decision making to the justices of the United States Supreme Court. The theoretical model assumes that the justices, as human decision makers, are incapable of considering the hundreds of facts that can affect a particular case. Rather, they rely upon a relative handful of cues to guide their decisions. The model is tested using the votes on search and seizure cases by the justices at the center of the Burger Court: White, Stewart, Powell and Stevens. The results show that a significant proportion of the variation in each justice's decisions can be explained by a small number of facts. Finally, it is shown that for these justices and these cases, there is no evidence that judges become more conservative with age.
99Â citations
TL;DR: Several alternative theories have been proposed to explain the gender gap in officeholding as discussed by the authors, ranging from women's socialization, career choices, and domestic responsibilities' to prejudice on the part of political influentials and voter bias against female candidates.
Abstract: Among the most enduring inequalities in American politics is the underrepresentation of women among elected officials. This pro-masculine bias becomes increasingly pronounced the higher the office on the political pyramid. Although many women have served on school boards, few have served in Congress. Several alternative theories have been proposed to explain the gender gap in officeholding. Factors ranging from women's socialization, career choices, and domestic responsibilities' to prejudice on the part of political influentials2 and voter bias against female candidates3 have been cited as barriers to elective office for women.4
88Â citations
TL;DR: For example, this article found that Republican party organizations, especially the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, provide candidates with more assistance than do their Democratic counterparts, and the NRCC is more effective at targeting their assistance to candidates involved in competitive races.
Abstract: Political scientists have expressed concern over the decline of political parties in recent years. This study provides evidence that at least one element of the political party, the party organization, is experiencing a resurgence rather than a decline. Data collected from nearly 400 House candidates reveal that party organizations continue to play an important role in congressional elections. National party committees, particularly the parties' congressional campaign committees, are now providing candidates with valuable assistance in activities that require technical expertise, in-depth research, or connections with the Washington campaign community. Included among these activities are campaign advertising, issue development, and fund-raising. State and local party organizations continue to assist candidates with gauging public opinion and mobilizing the electorate. Republican party organizations, especially the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, provide candidates with more assistance than do their Democratic counterparts. The RNC and the NRCC are more effective at targeting their assistance to candidates involved in competitive races. Party organizations are successfully adapting to the changing political environment. T he last few decades comprise an era of tremendous change for American political parties. Newly enacted campaign finance laws have served as a catalyst for the growth of vast numbers of political action committees (PACs), which now compete with parties for influence over candidates and voters. Party-initiated reforms in the nomination process have restructured the roles of party organizations in candidate recruitment and selection. The emergence of a more independent and more volatile electorate has helped to bring about changes in the tactics that candidates and parties use to garner support. Finally, technological innovations developed in the field of public relations have been adapted to the
82Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test a model of Senate seat change that includes changes in per capita real disposable income, presidential popularity, and party control of seats at stake in an election.
Abstract: Though House election outcomes have received much attention in recent years, comparable attention has not been paid to the Senate. We test a model of Senate seat change that includes changes in per capita real disposable income, presidential popularity, and party control of seats at stake in an election. The data consist of all Senate elections since 1920. A partial model explains 38% of the adjusted variation, and the full model almost 50%. The full model is then used to predict results for the 1986 elections over various levels of presidential popularity and changes in real disposable income.
75Â citations
TL;DR: For more than three decades, the "spatial dimensions of urbanism" have provided an important theoretical tool for studying urban government and politics as discussed by the authors, especially in the refining of various propositions concerning the linkages between jurisdictional boundaries and individual attitudes and behaviors associated with political participation.
Abstract: For more than three decades, the "spatial dimensions of urbanism" have provided an important theoretical tool for studying urban government and politics. Unfortunately, the now rather voluminous literature on the subject remains "painfully eclectic" (Goodman, 1977, p. 245). This is especially true in the refining of various propositions concerning the linkages between jurisdictional boundaries and individual attitudes and behaviors associated with political participation. Specifically, two problems confront the literature. First, there is a lack of an integrated model that encompasses the full range of behavioral and attitudinal responses to dissatisfaction with urban politics and accounts for the individual's choice from among those alternative response patterns. Second, the literature only incompletely and inappropriately addresses the impact of correspondence or lack thereof between spatial contours of social worlds and political jurisdictions on modes of political participation. This essay addresses t...
TL;DR: Using survey data concerning 134 large US cities, this article examined the political, organizational, economic, and demographic factors which affect minority representation in municipal work forces and found that the nature of a city's government, the autonomy of its personnel bureau, and the presence of a minority mayor/city manager act both solely and in combination to influence the degree to which minorities are represented on local payrolls.
Abstract: Using survey data concerning 134 large US cities, this paper examines the political, organizational, economic, and demographic factors which affect minority representation in municipal work forces Various regressions demonstrate the strong impact of the size of a city's minority population on employment However, the nature of a city's government, the autonomy of its personnel bureau, and the presence of a minority mayor/city manager act both solely and in combination to influence the degree to which minorities are represented on local payrolls Economic conditions affect the performance of all cities The author would like to thank Jack Knott, Gary J Miller, Charles Press, Charles W Ostrom, Jr, Frank J Thompson, and the JOP reviewers for their comments at various stages of this research
TL;DR: In this article, the progress of political science is reconceptualized as an increasing capacity to cope with contingency in its empirical problems and the rationality of any choice among research traditions is therefore historically contingent.
Abstract: Scientific progress is normally portrayed as a series of stable, rational choices between competing theories, research programs, or research traditions within a discipline. Progress of that sort cannot occur in political science because any comparisons among research traditions can only proceed in the context of a set of empirical problems which are socially determined. Political scientists have a say in this determination--but so does the larger society in which political science is embedded. The rationality of any choice among research traditions is therefore historically contingent. The progress of political science may be reconceptualized as an increasing capacity to cope with contingency in its empirical problems.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that although in principle the moral justification for intervention to protect human rights is broader than defenders of a strong principle of nonintervention, such as Michael Walzer, are willing to allow, the practical constraints on armed intervention are such that it can never be more than an exceptional remedy for human rights abuses.
Abstract: Long a part of the theory and practice of international politics, the principle of nonintervention has traditionally admitted few exceptions. Recently, however, arguments have been advanced that seek to expand the grounds for armed intervention to include a wide range of situations in which violations of human rights have occurred. This paper argues that although in principle the moral justification for intervention to protect human rights is broader than defenders of a strong principle of nonintervention, such as Michael Walzer, are willing to allow, the practical constraints on armed intervention are such that it can never be more than an exceptional remedy for human rights abuses.
TL;DR: In this paper, the direction and strength of the hypothesized bond between government stability and support for the democratic regime were investigated. But, the relationship between government change and support of "radical change" in the system may be spurious, resulting from relationships of both variables with macroeconomic performance.
Abstract: This article is an attempt to begin to fill the void in the empirical political science literature concerning the direction and strength of the hypothesized bond between government stability and support for the democratic regime. Alternative measures of government stability are considered, and four are chosen and used throughout the analyses based on data for nine EEC countries. Substantial relationships are found to exist in predictable directions, and those relationships remain for "passive" measures of satisfaction even when controls for legislative fractionalization and macroeconomic performance are introduced. Evidence is provided, however, which suggests that relationships between government change and support for "radical change" in the system may be spurious, resulting from relationships of both variables with macroeconomic performance.
TL;DR: In this paper, four correlates of vote choice (issues, ideology, candidate qualities, and electability) were examined separately for each candidate competing in the 1980 presidential primaries for the United States.
Abstract: Four correlates of vote choice (issues, ideology, candidate qualities, and electability) are examined separately for each candidate competing in the 1980 presidential primaries. In general, candidate qualities were found to have the most frequent and consistent relationships with vote choice. Issues tended to be uncorrelated with candidate preference. Ideology was associated with vote choice only in the Republican primaries. Electability correlated with vote choice only in primaries held late in the nomination season. These patterns in the correlates of vote choice reflect patterns and changes in the candidates' campaigns.
TL;DR: This paper examined the degree to which people at different levels of conceptualization use the liberal-conservative continuum to organize their thinking about political candidates and found that higher levels rely more heavily on the conservative dimension and also display a more systematic structure in their candidate perceptions than the other levels.
Abstract: This article examines the degree to which people at different levels of conceptualization use the liberal-conservative continuum to organize their thinking about political candidates. The analysis uses weighted multidimensional scaling, and the results show that 1980 candidate evaluations are based upon two evaluative dimensions. However, the levels do vary systematically: The higher levels--ideologues and near ideologues--rely more heavily on the liberal-conservative dimension and also display a more systematic structure in their candidate perceptions than the other levels. These empirical results are fully consistent with the substantive theory underlying the levels of conceptualization.
Abstract: Black Americans are less likely to participate in politics than white Americans are, but many students of political participation have argued that these differences result solely from racial differences in socioeconomic status. We questioned these conclusions by analyzing vote validation studies in which local registration and voting records were used to measure electoral participation. We also suggested that racial differences in turnout might be decreasing, and that controls for socioeconomic status and region might eliminate or reverse racial differences in future elections, even if participation were measured with the validated data. The 1984 SRC-CPS vote validation study is used to update our findings. Our expectations about the decline of racial differences were not fulfilled. Rather, the 1984 results are essentially similar to those we reported earlier: Racial differences in turnout are larger when the validated vote is used to measure electoral participation, and differences remain even after cont...
TL;DR: This paper found that the groups identified by these two strategies are different in demographic characteristics, political beliefs, and political behaviors, and that the fundamentalists identified by the doctrinal definition have higher levels of socioeconomic status, and are less Southern and rural than those identified by a denominational definition.
Abstract: Although the past decade has seen a marked increase in research that explores the political beliefs and behaviors of fundamentalist Christians, this research has suffered from a diversity of operational strategies. Early research operationalized fundamentalists by their denominational affiliation, while most later research has focused on doctrinal beliefs. This analysis suggests that the groups identified by these two strategies are different in demographic characteristics, political beliefs, and political behaviors. The fundamentalists identified by the doctrinal definition have higher levels of socioeconomic status, and are less Southern and rural than those identified by the denominational definition. These doctrinal fundamentalists are more conservative on women's issues and economic issues, and are more politically active and Republican. The analysis suggests that attempts to integrate literature that has employed these different operational definitions should be made cautiously.
TL;DR: The authors analyzed the economic components of popular support for the Canadian government and political parties between 1954 and 1979 and found no critical economic policy differences between the Liberal and Conservative parties, however, and support for these parties is r...
Abstract: How important are economic conditions in determining political support? Is voting a simple referendum on economic outcomes? Or must voters perceive critical party differences over economic policy before the economy has political impact? Although these questions have received considerable attention in the last decade, analysts have nonetheless overlooked the Canadian system, an ideal one in which to test propositions concerning the importance of public beliefs about party policy differences and to examine the economy's role in determining popularity of social democratic parties. This paper analyzes the economic components of popular support for the Canadian government and political parties between 1954 and 1979 and in doing so addresses a number of these issues. Essentially, our findings suggest Canadians hold the federal government responsible for economic conditions. They find no critical economic policy differences between the Liberal and Conservative parties, however, and support for these parties is r...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors uncover the contours of two basic dimensions: political involvement and vote choice, and demonstrate that traditional social cleavage explanations perform poorly, in comparison to more current explanations stressing long-term ideological attachments or intermediate-term economic concerns.
Abstract: Not much is known about the fundamentals of electoral behavior in the new Spanish democracy. Therefore, we attempt to uncover the contours of two basic dimensions: political involvement and vote choice. Utilizing data from a special 1984 Euro-Barometer survey, we suggest that Spanish political involvement is low, both absolutely and relatively, primarily because of the recent socialization to democratic norms. With regard specifically to the national vote choice, we demonstrate that traditional social cleavage explanations perform poorly, in comparison to more current explanations stressing long-term ideological attachments or intermediate-term economic concerns. However, taken together, these three factors--cleavages, ideology, economics--manage a good accounting of national vote choice in contemporary Spain.
TL;DR: For instance, this paper found that between the mid-1950s and the 1980s, the Senate floor became a much more active decision-making arena; both the contested workload and the amount of amending activity show large increases.
Abstract: The widely accepted generalization that the U.S. Senate has changed immensely since the 1950s rests upon a thin empirical base. Beginning a systematic investigation of Senate change, this study finds that between the mid-1950s and the 1980s, the Senate floor became a much more active decision-making arena; both the contested workload and the amount of amending activity show large increases. This change is the result of a change in senators' floor behavior. The modal senatorial floor style in the 1950s was one of highly restrained activism. Members who participated on the floor by offering amendments sponsored only a few, and those were in a narrow range of issue areas. By the early 1980s, the modal senatorial style was one of unrestrained activism. The typical senator offers large numbers of floor amendments and is little concerned with whether the bill at issue originated in a committee on which he serves. The intercommittee reciprocity norm is clearly dead. Specialization in any meaningful sense also se...
TL;DR: In this paper, a decision-theoretic model that yields a rather stringent condition for objection to a UCR is presented. But in spite of correspondingly strong temptations for opponents to object to unanimous consent requests (UCRs), consent is prevalent.
Abstract: In recent decades, U.S. senators have made increasing use of complex unanimous consent agreements (UCAs) which preclude filibusters by setting a time for a final vote on legislation and which often specify permissible amendments and their proposers. Because of the numerous dilatory tactics permitted in the absence of a UCA, controversial legislation is often doomed unless such an agreement is reached. But in spite of correspondingly strong temptations for opponents to object to unanimous consent requests (UCRs), consent is prevalent. This paper addresses the puzzle with a decision-theoretic model that yields a rather stringent condition for objection to a UCR. Two cases of objection in the Senate are analyzed and found to support hypotheses derived from the model. A concluding discussion considers UCAs as endogenous institutions that permit Senate leaders to induce behavior that appears cooperative but is nonetheless consistent with individual utility maximization.
TL;DR: In this paper, the connection between procedures and choices in collective decision-making arrangements is investigated based on laboratory experiments in a committee-like setting, and two specific agenda procedures are analyzed: a forward voting process that is typical of most social choice theoretic models and a backward voting process usually found in most legislative settings.
Abstract: This article focuses on the connection between procedures and choices in collective decision-making arrangements. The research reported here is based on laboratory experiments in a committee-like setting. Two specific agenda procedures are analyzed: a "forward voting" process that is typical of most social choice theoretic models and a "backward voting" process that is usually found in most legislative settings. The experimental results indicate that these procedures make a difference since they yield very different patterns of outcomes. These results add empirical evidence and credence to a body of theoretical literature concerned with structurally induced equilibrium.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the problem lies not with the direct primary itself, but rather with the rules that govern presidential primaries, and that if parties would allocate delegates proportionally to candidates, adopt a preference ballot, and allow independents and "swing" voters to participate, the direct-primary would offer an excellent opportunty to nominate candidates with broad support.
Abstract: Many observers of American politics have been highly critical of the proliferation of primaries that occurred in the 1970s. One of the reasons given for this unfavorable assessment is that the direct primary cannot consistently yield candidates who have broad electoral support--something that is thought necessary to win general elections. And since the major goal of parties is to win elections, this perceived shortcoming is cause for concern. In this article I show, however, that the problem lies not with the direct primary itself, but rather with the rules that govern presidential primaries. In fact, if parties would allocate delegates proportionally to candidates, adopt a preference ballot, and allow independents and "swing" voters to participate, the direct primary would offer an excellent opportunty to nominate candidates with broad support.
TL;DR: It is argued that constituency representation is best conceptualized as taking a nonlinear rather than a linear form, especially when legislative roll-call behavior is influenced by constituency opinion, and data on constituency representation shows that a logistic model provides a better fit over a linear model.
Abstract: We argue that constituency representation is best conceptualized as taking a nonlinear rather than a linear form, especially when legislative roll-call behavior is influenced by constituency opinion. We analyze data on constituency representation showing that a logistic model provides a better fit over a linear model. The improvement is greatest under conditions associated with constituency influence, supporting our theoretical contention that a linear form can be expected when constituencies and legislators share opinion, but that departure from a linear to a logistic structure will occur with constituency influence.
TL;DR: In this article, an interactive voting model is introduced, in which nonpolicy characteristics affect the voter's evaluation of the candidate only through the candidate's policy positions, and the model is used to predict voter choice in the 1972, 1976, and 1980 presidential elections.
Abstract: In Enelow and Hinich (1982, 1984a), the spatial theory of elections is augmented to incorporate nonspatial candidate characteristics in the voter's candidate evaluations. In this extension, nonpolicy characteristics are represented by an additive term independent of the policy portion of the voter's evaluation. In Grofman (1985), an interactive voting model is introduced, in which nonpolicy characteristics affect the voter's evaluation of the candidate only through the candidate's policy positions. An empirical question is raised by these two contrasting approaches: do nonpolicy candidate qualities affect voter choice independently of candidate policies, interactively with candidate policies, or through both means? This paper is designed to answer that question. An extended form of the Enelow-Hinich model is specified with both main and interaction terms. The model is then used to predict voter choice in the 1972, 1976, and 1980 presidential elections. Statistical evidence for the existence of interaction...
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship of party organizational strength and state-national party integration is examined, and it is shown that national party organizations have made an important contribution to the strengthening of state party organizations.
Abstract: In this article, we consider the relationship of party organizational strength and state-national party integration. Specifically, we examine the thesis that national party organizations have made an important contribution to the strengthening of state party organizations. We test the hypothesis that state party organizational strength is a function of national party organization building efforts. Finally, we conclude by speculating on the implications of different development patterns for the performance of traditional party functions and the maintenance of the existing party system.
TL;DR: This paper analyzed state passage of legislative resolutions calling for a convention to propose a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution and found no tendency for states passing the resolutions to have constitutional balanced budget requirements or debt limits of their own.
Abstract: Analysis of state passage of legislative resolutions calling for a convention to propose a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution reveals no tendency for states passing the resolutions to have constitutional balanced budget requirements or debt limits of their own. States passing the resolutions tend to have more conservative electorates.
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the characteristics of presidential support scores compiled by the Office of Congressional Relations (OCR) from 1961 to 1967 and found that Republicans and southern Democrats were much less supportive of the presidents than CQ suggests.
Abstract: This paper describes characteristics of presidential support scores compiled by the Office of Congressional Relations (OCR) from 1961 to 1967. These characteristics are compared to similar scores compiled by Congressional Quarterly (CQ). The OCR scores were based on votes known to be important to the presidents, while CQ could not make such distinctions. This difference in vote selection generated important substantive and methodological implications. For example, the OCR scores reveal that Republicans and southern Democrats were much less supportive of the presidents than CQ suggests, while northern Democrats were much more supportive. This, along with other CQ shortcomings revealed by the analysis of CQ-OCR differences, argues for the use of the OCR scores when attempting to explain presidential influence, and a sensitivity to important problems with the CQ scores when the OCR data are not available.