Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Book ChapterDOI
Information and Area-Wide Control in Agricultural Ecology
TL;DR: Agricultural ecology is a topic which could take the entire period of time available for the Course in Mathematical Ecology offered at the ICTP and one must carefully select topics in the lectures as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Fundamental aspects of risk and uncertainty in agriculture
TL;DR: Agrekon et al. as mentioned in this paper discuss the risks and uncertainties of risk and uncertainty in agri-culture, and propose a framework of risk-and-uncertainty in agriculture.
Journal ArticleDOI
Die aard en omvang van risiko's in die rsa-landbou
TL;DR: In this paper, aandag gegee aan die bronne van risiko en onsekerheid in die landbou, sowel as moontlike optredes wat hieruit voortspruit om dit te verminder.
Posted ContentDOI
Information technologies and field-level chemical use for corn production
Jae-hoon Sung,John Miranowski +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the effectiveness of soil testing and pest scouting by focusing on field-level chemical use for corn production and find that adopting information technologies are positively correlated with farmers' human capital, field characteristics, and corn prices.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Role of Forecasting in Crop Protection Decision Making: an Economic Viewpoint1
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of the possible impact that forecast infomation can have on farmer decision-making, particularly with regard to the accuracy of the forecast and the time at which it is available.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"