Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Perceptions of Disease Risk: From Social Construction of Subjective Judgments to Rational Decision Making
TL;DR: A new framework is discussed that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management.
Book ChapterDOI
How Much does Risk Really Matter to Farmers
TL;DR: In the U.S. agricultural sector, a number of changes in the agricultural sector have further increased risk over the past 40 years, including termination of commodity programs, globalization of markets, increased managerial complexity, increased neighbor conflicts, and increased governmental regulations.
Journal ArticleDOI
Importance, causes, and management responses to farm risks: evidence from florida and alabama
TL;DR: Hanson as mentioned in this paper described the procedures characterized by grave financial difficulties used and the results obtained from a statis- in the 1980's (Farm Credit Administration). tically random survey of farmers' perceptions While it is clear that risk and uncertainty of the importance of various sources of risk play an important role in agriculture in the and alternative risk management practices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.
TL;DR: It is suggested that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Human Capital, Adjustments in Subjective Probabilities, and the Demand for Pest Controls
Prabhu Pingali,Gerald A. Carlson +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the human capital variables with the largest effects are formal schooling and farmer experience, with smaller impacts from field scouting and extension schools, and they found that human capital development can improve farmers' ability to estimate pest damage probabilities.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"