Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
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Book ChapterDOI
On the Economic Limits to Technological Potential: Will Industry Resolve the Resistance Problem?
Timo Goeschl,Timothy Swanson +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors looked at the potential for a two-sector economic system to effect pathogen eradication if this was technologically possible, and the motivation has been the idea that there may be allocative problems in the way ecological processes are managed in a two sector economy which may render successful pathogen management unlikely even if the premises of the 'eternal battle'-hypothesis were not correct.
On damage, uncertainty and risk in supervised control: aphids and brown rust in winter wheat as an example.
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae, on crop physiology are studied to arrive at simple relations between aphid density and damage, and the consequences of uncertainty about the costs of alternative strategies for optimal timing of chemical control of aphids and/or brown rust ( Pucciniarecondita ) are evaluated.
Integrating novel technologies for cabbage IPM in the USA: value of on-farm research.
TL;DR: The economic benefit of an IPM approach is confirmed by careful measurement of the benefits and risks of IPM and has been well-received by Minnesota growers.
Journal ArticleDOI
Information in agricultural pest control
TL;DR: In this article, a decision aid for agricultural producers regarding their pest scouting and spraying activities is developed, where the basic issue is how estimates of pest populations are computed and when the operator should act using that information.
Journal ArticleDOI
Risk and Fertilizer Use in the Rainfed Rice Ecosystem of Tarlac, Philippines
Abedullah,Sushil Pandey +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the effect of risk aversion on the optimal level of fertilizer by employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional survey data collected from 46 rainfed rice farmers in Tarlac, Central Luzon, Philippines based on a heteroscedastic specification of production function.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"