Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Risk‐efficient thresholds for pest control decisions
TL;DR: In this article, risk and uncertainty are incorporated in an economic model to develop risk-efficient pest control advice similar in character to advice currently being offered by researchers to farmers, and implications of risk aversion for efficient pest-control advice and average pesticide use are examined.
Journal ArticleDOI
State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Economics and Marketing-Finance
Nikos Kalogeras,Gaby Odekerken-Schröder,Joost M.E. Pennings,H. Gunnlaugsdóttir,F. Holm,O. Leino,J.M. Luteijn,S.H. Magnússon,M.V. Pohjola,M.J. Tijhuis,Jouni T. Tuomisto,Ø. Ueland,B.C. White,Hans Verhagen,Hans Verhagen +14 more
TL;DR: The role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain are discussed and a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants is introduced.
Journal ArticleDOI
Pest control decision making: sugar beet in england
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study is discussed in which a decision model is used to compare objective pest observation with subjective perceptions of sugar beet growers, and applications of such a model for improving pest control decisions are suggested.
The management of diamondback moth and other crucifer pests : proceedings of the fifth international workshop
TL;DR: The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, is considered the most universally distributed of all Lepidoptera and the main insect pest of crucifers worldwide, resulting in increased crucifer production and changing management practices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Uncertainty analysis applied to supervised control of aphids and brown rust in winter wheat. Part 1. Quantification of uncertainty in cost-benefit calculations
TL;DR: In this article, a model for evaluating financial loss associated with different strategies of chemical control of aphids (especially Sitobion avenae ) and/or brown rust ( Puccinia recondita ) in winter wheat in The Netherlands is presented.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"