Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Posted ContentDOI
What Drives Strategic Behaviour? A Framework to Explain and Predict SME's Transition to Sustainable Production Systems
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the agricultural, marketing and management literature on decision-making under risk for strategic decisions and discuss the various elicitation techniques to measure decision-makers? utility functions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Optimal Sample Size for Detection of an Infestation
TL;DR: In this article, four probability models for analysis of cost are proposed for finite and infinite populations which are used to find the optimal strategy to minimize the economic impact of a potential infestation.
Posted ContentDOI
Multi-Dimensional Responses to Risk Information: How do Winegrape Growers Respond to Disease Forecasts and to What Environmental Effect?
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use a daily risk index (PMI) to predict the risk of powdery mildew in California winegrowers and show that the impact of the PMI on soil, surface water, groundwater, and air is negative.
Journal ArticleDOI
Study on the Implementation of the Provisions of the Sustainable Use Directive on Integrated Pest Management: Experience of Eleven Member States of the European Union
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a study which attempts to track the progress and identify the challenges of the selected EU Member States towards the implementation of the provisions of the SU Directive on Integrated Pest Management (a tool which is able to balance economic, environmental and health concerns where food is produced).
Powdery mildew risk & forecasting in wine grapes:
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the response of wine grape growers to better forecast information and found that growers primarily adjust their choice of product in response to the PMI by switching to higher potency synthetic fungicides when the risk is high.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"