Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
An advanced method for economic threshold determination: a positive approach
Hovav Talpaz,Ray E. Frisbie +1 more
TL;DR: The concept of economic threshold was introduced by Headley and Stern as discussed by the authors, who defined it as the pest population density at which control measures should be determined to prevent an increasing population from reaching the economic injury level.
Posted Content
Risk Evaluation of Early Termination for Pest Control in Cotton
TL;DR: In this article, the exponential utility, moment-generating function approach to stochastic efficiency is used to evaluate pest control technologies for cotton under normal, gamma, and beta distributed crop yields.
Journal ArticleDOI
A decision analytic model for chemical control of sooty blotch and flyspeck diseases of apple
Harvey J. Gold,Turner B. Sutton +1 more
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Geospatial data mining for Agriculture pest management - a framework
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the frame work of the pest management system using data mining techniques; which concentrate on providing, historical data, current and recommended pest and pesticide information and to be simulated pest models up to farm level.
Dissertation
Decision making in the control of sugar beet pests, particularly viruliferous aphids
TL;DR: Suggestions for research and extension activities are made to improve pest control decision making in four areas: perceptions; options; objectives; and rationality.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"