Journal ArticleDOI
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control
TLDR
In this article, Bayesian decision theory procedures are used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices, and subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model, and the optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions, maximum subjective expected returns, mean-standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.Abstract:
The pesticide application practices of California peach growers in controlling peach brown‐rot are used to demonstrate how Bayesian decision theory procedures can be used to arrive at optimal crop disease control practices. Subjective probabilities of disease loss intensity are measured and used in the decision model. Information from an analyst (this researcher) is combined with farmers' subjective probabilities of disease loss by means of Bayes' theorem. Optimal pesticide use actions are computed for three different objective functions—maximum subjective expected returns, mean‐standard deviation of returns, and maximum expected returns with a minimum income side condition.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A critique of the normative and descriptive foundations of subjective probability, with reference to agriculture
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest that Savage's inferred probabilities do not take account of differences in uncertainty which may rationally determine behaviour, and that subjective probabilities may provide an inefficient method of analysing observed economic behaviour.
Book ChapterDOI
Programming Methods for Risk-Efficient Choice
TL;DR: Programming models were prominent in early theoretical and empirical research on risk-efficient choices, beginning primarily with Freund’s (1956) seminal incorporation of risk into a quadratic programming (QP) model.
Book ChapterDOI
The economics of alternative pest management strategies: basic assessment and environmental uncertainties
Journal ArticleDOI
Thresholds for Chemical Control of Agricultural Pests in a Dynamic Ecosystem
Journal ArticleDOI
Major problems with evaluating multiple stress factors in agriculture
TL;DR: This approach offers insights into the experimental designs, analyses and potential uses of integrated pest management strategies developed by interdisciplinary scientists; yet, major problems exist in acquisition of model validation data.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Chance-Constrained Programming
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of attack which splits the problem into two non-linear or linear programming parts, i determining optimal probability distributions, ii approximating the optimal distributions as closely as possible by decision rules of prescribed form.
Book ChapterDOI
Truth and Probability
TL;DR: A reprint of Frank P. Ramsey's seminal paper "Truth and Probability" written in 1926 and first published posthumous in the 1931 The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. R.B. Braithwaite, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: "`But the authors can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so they're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'"