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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information

Robert C. Merton
- 01 Jul 1987 - 
- Vol. 42, Iss: 3, pp 483-510
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TLDR
The model financial economics encompasses finance, micro-investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty as mentioned in this paper, and it has had a direct and significant influence on practice, as is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory.
Abstract
THE SPHERE of model financial economics encompasses finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible. The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics. Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory. But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice. ’ It was not always thus. Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management. There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic theory subjected to systematic empirical examination? Nor is there a need on this occasion to document the wide-ranging impact of the research on finance practice.2 I simply note that the conjoining of intrinsic intellectual interest with extrinsic application is a prevailing theme of research in financial economics. The later stages of this successful evolution have however been marked by a substantial accumulation of empirical anomalies; discoveries of theoretical inconsistencies; and a well-founded concern about the statistical power of many of the test methodologies.3 Finance thus finds itself today in the seemingly-paradoxical position of having more questions and empirical puzzles than at the start of its

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Citations
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Trusting the stock market

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The price of sin: The effects of social norms on markets

TL;DR: For example, this paper found that sin stocks are less held by norm-constrained institutions such as pension plans as compared to mutual or hedge funds that are natural arbitrageurs, and they receive less coverage from analysts than do stocks of otherwise comparable characteristics.
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The colors of investors’ money: The role of institutional investors around the world

TL;DR: This article studied the role of institutional investors around the world using a comprehensive data set of equity holdings from 27 countries and found that all institutional investors have a strong preference for the stock of large firms and firms with good governance, while foreign institutions tend to overweight firms that are cross-listed in the U.S and members of the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index.
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Price Momentum and Trading Volume

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the usefulness of trading volume in predicting cross-sectional returns for various price momentum portfolios and find that firms with high ~low! past turnover ratios exhibit many glamour ~value! characteristics, earn lower ~higher! future returns, and have consistently more negative ~positive! earnings surprises over the next eight quarters.
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The Effects of Market Segmentation and Investor Recognition on Asset Prices: Evidence from Foreign Stocks Listing in the United States

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that share price changes are robust to changing market risk exposures and are related to an expansion of the shareholder base and to the amount of capital raised at the time of listing.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk*

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a body of positive microeconomic theory dealing with conditions of risk, which can be used to predict the behavior of capital marcets under certain conditions.
Journal ArticleDOI

The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice

TL;DR: The psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and the evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways.
Journal ArticleDOI

Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests

TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks was tested using a two-parameter portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two parameter portfolio model.
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The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing

TL;DR: Ebsco as mentioned in this paper examines the arbitrage model of capital asset pricing as an alternative to the mean variance pricing model introduced by Sharpe, Lintner and Treynor.
Journal ArticleDOI

THE EQUITY PREMIUM A Puzzle

TL;DR: This paper showed that an equilibrium model which is not an Arrow-Debreu economy will be the one that simultaneously rationalizes both historically observed large average equity return and the small average risk-free return.