A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities
TLDR
It is deduced that the spread of COVID-19 can be under control in all communities considered, if proper restrictions and strong policies are implemented to control the infection rates early from thespread of the disease.Abstract:
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to investigate its spread within a community Here, the model is based upon the well-known susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with the difference that a total population is not defined or kept constant per se and the number of susceptible individuals does not decline monotonically To the contrary, as we show herein, it can be increased in surge periods! In particular, we investigate the time evolution of different populations and monitor diverse significant parameters for the spread of the disease in various communities, represented by China, South Korea, India, Australia, USA, Italy and the state of Texas in the USA The SIR model can provide us with insights and predictions of the spread of the virus in communities that the recorded data alone cannot Our work shows the importance of modelling the spread of COVID-19 by the SIR model that we propose here, as it can help to assess the impact of the disease by offering valuable predictions Our analysis takes into account data from January to June, 2020, the period that contains the data before and during the implementation of strict and control measures We propose predictions on various parameters related to the spread of COVID-19 and on the number of susceptible, infected and removed populations until September 2020 By comparing the recorded data with the data from our modelling approaches, we deduce that the spread of COVID-19 can be under control in all communities considered, if proper restrictions and strong policies are implemented to control the infection rates early from the spread of the diseaseread more
Citations
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References
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TL;DR: A stochastic transmission model is combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated inWuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January, 2020, and February, 2020.
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