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Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization

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TLDR
In this article, the authors empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with the performance of a wide range of models and distribution shifts and provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
Abstract
For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.

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References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine semantic keypoints predicted by a convolutional network (convnet) with a deformable shape model to estimate the continuous 6-DoF pose of an object from a single RGB image.
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Unsupervised Learning of Visual Features by Contrasting Cluster Assignments

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Big Self-Supervised Models are Strong Semi-Supervised Learners

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Do ImageNet Classifiers Generalize to ImageNet

TL;DR: This article showed that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.
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PolyNet: A Pursuit of Structural Diversity in Very Deep Networks

TL;DR: This work presents a new family of modules, namely the PolyInception, which can be flexibly inserted in isolation or in a composition as replacements of different parts of a network, and demonstrates substantial improvements over the state-of-the-art on the ILSVRC 2012 benchmark.
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