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Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization

TLDR
In this article, the authors empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with the performance of a wide range of models and distribution shifts and provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
Abstract
For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.

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References
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Book

Monocular Model-Based 3D Tracking of Rigid Objects: A Survey

TL;DR: This survey reviews the different techniques and approaches that have been developed by industry and research on 3D tracking and includes a comprehensive study of the massive literature on the subject.
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The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization

TL;DR: It is found that using larger models and artificial data augmentations can improve robustness on real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work.
Proceedings Article

Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations

TL;DR: This paper standardizes and expands the corruption robustness topic, while showing which classifiers are preferable in safety-critical applications, and proposes a new dataset called ImageNet-P which enables researchers to benchmark a classifier's robustness to common perturbations.
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Certified Adversarial Robustness via Randomized Smoothing

TL;DR: In this paper, randomized smoothing is used to obtain an ImageNet classifier with a certified top-1 accuracy of 49% under adversarial perturbations with less than 0.5.
Proceedings ArticleDOI

Wild Patterns: Ten Years After the Rise of Adversarial Machine Learning

TL;DR: A thorough overview of the evolution of this research area over the last ten years and beyond is provided, starting from pioneering, earlier work on the security of non-deep learning algorithms up to more recent work aimed to understand the security properties of deep learning algorithms, in the context of computer vision and cybersecurity tasks.
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