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Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization

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TLDR
In this article, the authors empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with the performance of a wide range of models and distribution shifts and provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
Abstract
For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.

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References
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Proceedings Article

An analysis of single-layer networks in unsupervised feature learning

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the number of hidden nodes in the model may be more important to achieving high performance than the learning algorithm or the depth of the model, and they apply several othe-shelf feature learning algorithms (sparse auto-encoders, sparse RBMs, K-means clustering, and Gaussian mixtures) to CIFAR, NORB, and STL datasets using only single-layer networks.
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Exploring Simple Siamese Representation Learning

TL;DR: Surprising empirical results are reported that simple Siamese networks can learn meaningful representations even using none of the following: (i) negative sample pairs, (ii) large batches, (iii) momentum encoders.
Book ChapterDOI

Evasion attacks against machine learning at test time

TL;DR: This work presents a simple but effective gradient-based approach that can be exploited to systematically assess the security of several, widely-used classification algorithms against evasion attacks.
Proceedings ArticleDOI

PoseNet: A Convolutional Network for Real-Time 6-DOF Camera Relocalization

TL;DR: PoseNet as mentioned in this paper uses a CNN to regress the 6-DOF camera pose from a single RGB image in an end-to-end manner with no need of additional engineering or graph optimisation.
Book ChapterDOI

Progressive Neural Architecture Search

TL;DR: In this article, a sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) strategy is proposed to search for structures in order of increasing complexity, while simultaneously learning a surrogate model to guide the search through structure space.
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