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Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization

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TLDR
In this article, the authors empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with the performance of a wide range of models and distribution shifts and provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
Abstract
For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution performance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.

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References
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Do Image Classifiers Generalize Across Time

TL;DR: This work systematically analyzed the robustness of image classifiers to temporal perturbations in videos to construct two new datasets, ImageNet-Vid-Robust and YTBB-Rob Strong, containing a total of 57,897 images grouped into 3,139 sets of perceptually similar images.
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Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision

TL;DR: In this paper, a pre-training task of predicting which caption goes with which image is used to learn SOTA image representations from scratch on a dataset of 400 million (image, text) pairs collected from the internet.
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In Search of Lost Domain Generalization

TL;DR: DomainBed as mentioned in this paper is a testbed for domain generalization including seven benchmarks, fourteen algorithms, and three model selection criteria, and when carefully implemented and tuned, ERM outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of average performance.
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Cold Case: The Lost MNIST Digits

TL;DR: In this article, the authors reconstruct the MNIST dataset from its NIST source and its rich metadata such as writer identifier, partition identifier, etc., and reconstruct the complete MNIST test set with 60,000 samples instead of the usual 10,000, and investigate the impact of twenty-five years of MNIST experiments on the reported testing performances.
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WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts

TL;DR: WILDS as mentioned in this paper is a curated collection of 8 benchmark datasets that reflect a diverse range of distribution shifts which naturally arise in real-world applications, such as shifts across hospitals for tumor identification; across camera traps for wildlife monitoring; and across time and location in satellite imaging and poverty mapping.
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