Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research
Luca Santini,Luca Santini,Luca Santini,Ana Benítez-López,Ana Benítez-López,Luigi Maiorano,Mirza Čengić,Mark A. J. Huijbregts +7 more
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TLDR
In this paper, the authors provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field and assess model predictions reliability using a virtual species approach and three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt and Random Forest) to assess the estimated and actual predictive performance of models parameterized with different modelling settings and violations of modelling assumptions.Abstract:
Aim Forecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species distribution response to changing climate. In this study we provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field and assess model predictions reliability using a virtual species approach. Location Global Methods We first provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field by reviewing the papers published in the last 5 years. Then, we use a virtual species approach and three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt and Random Forest) to assess the estimated (cross-validated) and actual predictive performance of models parameterized with different modelling settings and violations of modelling assumptions. Results Our literature review shows that most papers that model species distribution under climate change rely on single models (65%) and small samples ( Main conclusions Our study calls for extreme caution in the application and interpretation of SDMs in the context of biodiversity conservation and climate change research, especially when modelling a large number of species where species-specific model settings become impracticable.read more
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The rise and fall of an alien: why the successful colonizer Littorina saxatilis failed to invade the Mediterranean Sea
Luciano Bosso,Sonia Smeraldo,Danilo Russo,Maria Luisa Chiusano,Giorgio Bertorelle,Kerstin Johannesson,Roger K. Butlin,Roberto Danovaro,Francesca Raffini +8 more
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Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches
Laura H. Antão,Benjamin Weigel,Giovanni Strona,Maria Hällfors,Elina Kaarlejärvi,Tad A. Dallas,Øystein H. Opedal,Janne Heliölä,Heikki Henttonen,Otso Huitu,Erkki Korpimäki,Mikko Kuussaari,Aleksi Lehikoinen,Reima Leinonen,Andreas Lindén,Päivi Merilä,Hannu Pietiäinen,Juha Pöyry,Maija Salemaa,Tiina Tonteri,Kristiina Vuorio,Otso Ovaskainen,Marjo Saastamoinen,Jarno Vanhatalo,Tomas Roslin,Anna-Liisa Laine +25 more
TL;DR: In this article , the relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change and a greater proportion of species responded to climate change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger.
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Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird species to estimate the impact of climate change on avian functional diversity (FD) and show that future bird assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with a magnitude of change greater than predicted from species richness alone, and a direction of change varying according to geographical location and trophic guild.
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Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: Climatic niche and grid resolution affect between‐version mismatches in Habitat Suitability Models predictions across Europe
TL;DR: In this article , the authors evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences).
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Searching for ecology in species distribution models in the Himalayas
TL;DR: A review of 157 Himalayan studies published between 2010 and 2021, aiming at identifying their main modelling objective in relation to the conceptualization of their methodological framework, evaluating origin of species occurrence data, taxonomic groups, spatial and temporal scale, selection of predictor variables and applied modelling algorithms is presented in this article.
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