Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using a Modified Amalgamation of Fuzzy Clustering and Neural Network on Spatio-Temporal Data
04 Jun 2015-pp 142-154
TL;DR: A dynamic model that can provide prediction for the estimated arrival time of a bus at a given bus stop using Global Positioning System (GPS) data is presented and it is shown that the method is effective in stated conditions.
Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic model that can provide prediction for the estimated arrival time of a bus at a given bus stop using Global Positioning System (GPS) data. The proposed model is a hybrid intelligent system combining Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks. While Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns and predicting, they are not good at explaining how they decide their input parameters. Fuzzy Logic systems, on the other hand, can reason with imprecise information, but require linguistic rules to explain their fuzzy outputs. Thus combining both helps in countering each other’s limitations and a reliable and effective prediction system can be developed. Experiments are performed on a real-world dataset and show that our method is effective in stated conditions. The accuracy of result is 86.293% obtained
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TL;DR: The results show that the newly introduced parameters, the weighted average travel time, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy and halve the time cost of predicted arrival time calculation.
Abstract: The primary objective of this paper is to develop models to predict bus arrival time at a target stop using actual multi-route bus arrival time data from previous stop as inputs. In order to mix and fully utilize the multiple routes bus arrival time data, the weighted average travel time and three Forgetting Factor Functions (FFFs) – F1, F2 and F3 – are introduced. Based on different combinations of input variables, five prediction models are proposed. Three widely used algorithms, i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neutral Network (ANN) and Linear Regression (LR), are tested to find the best for arrival time prediction. Bus location data of 11 road segments from Yichun (China), covering 12 bus stops and 16 routes, are collected to evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches. The results show that the newly introduced parameters, the weighted average travel time, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy: the prediction errors reduce by around 20%. The algorithm comparison demonstrates that the SVM and ANN outperform the LR. The FFFs can also affect the performance errors: F1 is more suitable for ANN algorithm, while F3 is better for SVM and LR algorithms. Besides, the virtual road concept in this paper can slightly improve the prediction accuracy and halve the time cost of predicted arrival time calculation.
First published online 02 May 2017
12 citations
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TL;DR: The application of artificial intelligence (AI) based methods/algorithms to predict the bus arrival time (BAT) is reviewed in detail and thorough discussion is presented to elaborate different branches of AI that have been applied for several aspects of BAT prediction.
Abstract: Buses are one of the important parts of public transport system. To provide accurate information about bus arrival and departure times at bus stops is one of the main parameters of good quality public transport. Accurate arrival and departure times information is important for a public transport mode since it enhances ridership as well as satisfaction of travelers. With accurate arrival‐time and departure time information, travelers can make informed decisions about their journey. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) based methods/algorithms to predict the bus arrival time (BAT) is reviewed in detail. Systematic survey of existing research conducted by various researchers by applying the different branches of AI has been done. Prediction models have been segregated and are accumulated under respective branches of AI. Thorough discussion is presented to elaborate different branches of AI that have been applied for several aspects of BAT prediction. Research gaps and possible future directions for further research work are summarized.
8 citations
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TL;DR: A GPS calibration method is put forward, while projection rules of specific road shapes are discussed, and a hybrid dynamic BAT prediction factor, which achieves accuracy enhancement by taking into account traffic flow evaluation results and GPS position calibration, is defined.
Abstract: Bus arrival time prediction not only provides convenience for passengers, but also helps to improve the efficiency of intelligent transportation system. Unfortunately, the low precision of bus-mounted GPS system, lack of real-time traffic information and poor performance of prediction model lead to low estimation accuracy - greatly influence bus service performance. Hence, in this paper, a GPS calibration method is put forward, while projection rules of specific road shapes are discussed. Moreover, two traffic factors, travel factor and dwelling factor, are defined to express real-time traffic state. Then, considering both historic data and real-time traffic condition, a hybrid dynamic BAT prediction factor, which achieves accuracy enhancement by taking into account traffic flow evaluation results and GPS position calibration, is defined. A LSTM training model is construct to realize BAT prediction. Experiment results demonstrate that our technique can provide a higher level of accuracy compared to methods based on traditional time-of-arrival techniques, especially in the accuracy of multi-stops BAT prediction.
5 citations
Cites methods from "Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using a..."
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TL;DR: Considering real-time bus operation data and transfer schemes, a fusion scheme to predict bus arrival time and improve prediction accuracy is proposed and a dynamic transfer scheme based on the shortest time priority is designed according to the prediction of bus arrivals.
Abstract: Precisely predicting bus arrival time and offering the optimal transfer scheme are the two key factors for realizing the intelligent transportation. Most studies only use historical data to predict arrival time, which results in large errors. In this paper, considering real-time bus operation data and transfer schemes, we propose a fusion scheme to predict bus arrival time and improve prediction accuracy. Firstly, it proposed a based link bus arrival time prediction technology according to its real-time operation data; Secondly, the BP neural network model and correction layer is adopted to predict the bus arrival time when the real-time bus operation data of some interval are missed. Finally, a dynamic transfer scheme based on the shortest time priority is designed according to the prediction of bus arrival time. Experimental results demonstrate the prediction accurate of our proposed scheme.
2 citations
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TL;DR: This paper surveys advances in trip-planning techniques in multimodal transit systems using the example of Mumbai city transit and highlights the relative strengths of different approaches.
Abstract: Increased integration of positioning and wireless technologies in transit vehicle telematics enhances the availability of real-time updates and also provides large histories of vehicle locations which can be analyzed for probable wait or travel times. However, trip-planning applications are limited by their ability to use different types of transit-related data that are available and hence are unable to offer reliable plans. Techniques in trip planning are rather limited in their use of either frequency-based or scheduled-based data. Consequentially, the plans generated are unreliable and often users of transit systems end up with negative perspectives about the transit system. In this paper, we survey advances in trip-planning techniques in multimodal transit systems. Using the example of Mumbai city transit, we highlight the relative strengths of different approaches. We explain variance of travel and waiting time in trip-planning algorithms and the need to combine this with schedule-based trip planning. We highlight challenges in the computation of reliable trip plans in the presence of constraints such as occupancy levels and time-sensitive networks.
1 citations
References
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22,129 citations
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31 Jul 1981
TL;DR: Books, as a source that may involve the facts, opinion, literature, religion, and many others are the great friends to join with, becomes what you need to get.
Abstract: New updated! The latest book from a very famous author finally comes out. Book of pattern recognition with fuzzy objective function algorithms, as an amazing reference becomes what you need to get. What's for is this book? Are you still thinking for what the book is? Well, this is what you probably will get. You should have made proper choices for your better life. Book, as a source that may involve the facts, opinion, literature, religion, and many others are the great friends to join with.
15,070 citations
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01 Jan 1973
TL;DR: Two fuzzy versions of the k-means optimal, least squared error partitioning problem are formulated for finite subsets X of a general inner product space; in both cases, the extremizing solutions are shown to be fixed points of a certain operator T on the class of fuzzy, k-partitions of X, and simple iteration of T provides an algorithm which has the descent property relative to the least squarederror criterion function.
Abstract: Two fuzzy versions of the k-means optimal, least squared error partitioning problem are formulated for finite subsets X of a general inner product space. In both cases, the extremizing solutions are shown to be fixed points of a certain operator T on the class of fuzzy, k-partitions of X, and simple iteration of T provides an algorithm which has the descent property relative to the least squared error criterion function. In the first case, the range of T consists largely of ordinary (i.e. non-fuzzy) partitions of X and the associated iteration scheme is essentially the well known ISODATA process of Ball and Hall. However, in the second case, the range of T consists mainly of fuzzy partitions and the associated algorithm is new; when X consists of k compact well separated (CWS) clusters, Xi , this algorithm generates a limiting partition with membership functions which closely approximate the characteristic functions of the clusters Xi . However, when X is not the union of k CWS clusters, the limi...
5,261 citations
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01 Jan 1973
TL;DR: In this paper, two fuzzy versions of the k-means optimal, least squared error partitioning problem are formulated for finite subsets X of a general inner product space, and the extremizing solutions are shown to be fixed points of a certain operator T on the class of fuzzy, k-partitions of X, and simple iteration of T provides an algorithm which has the descent property relative to the LSE criterion function.
Abstract: Two fuzzy versions of the k-means optimal, least squared error partitioning problem are formulated for finite subsets X of a general inner product space. In both cases, the extremizing solutions are shown to be fixed points of a certain operator T on the class of fuzzy, k-partitions of X, and simple iteration of T provides an algorithm which has the descent property relative to the least squared error criterion function. In the first case, the range of T consists largely of ordinary (i.e. non-fuzzy) partitions of X and the associated iteration scheme is essentially the well known ISODATA process of Ball and Hall. However, in the second case, the range of T consists mainly of fuzzy partitions and the associated algorithm is new; when X consists of k compact well separated (CWS) clusters, Xi , this algorithm generates a limiting partition with membership functions which closely approximate the characteristic functions of the clusters Xi . However, when X is not the union of k CWS clusters, the limi...
5,254 citations
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TL;DR: A new model called possibilistic-fuzzy c-means (PFCM) model, which solves the noise sensitivity defect of FCM, overcomes the coincident clusters problem of PCM and eliminates the row sum constraints of FPCM.
Abstract: In 1997, we proposed the fuzzy-possibilistic c-means (FPCM) model and algorithm that generated both membership and typicality values when clustering unlabeled data. FPCM constrains the typicality values so that the sum over all data points of typicalities to a cluster is one. The row sum constraint produces unrealistic typicality values for large data sets. In this paper, we propose a new model called possibilistic-fuzzy c-means (PFCM) model. PFCM produces memberships and possibilities simultaneously, along with the usual point prototypes or cluster centers for each cluster. PFCM is a hybridization of possibilistic c-means (PCM) and fuzzy c-means (FCM) that often avoids various problems of PCM, FCM and FPCM. PFCM solves the noise sensitivity defect of FCM, overcomes the coincident clusters problem of PCM and eliminates the row sum constraints of FPCM. We derive the first-order necessary conditions for extrema of the PFCM objective function, and use them as the basis for a standard alternating optimization approach to finding local minima of the PFCM objective functional. Several numerical examples are given that compare FCM and PCM to PFCM. Our examples show that PFCM compares favorably to both of the previous models. Since PFCM prototypes are less sensitive to outliers and can avoid coincident clusters, PFCM is a strong candidate for fuzzy rule-based system identification.
985 citations
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