Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States
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Bioclimatic envelope modeling is used to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu, privet, and cogongrass, and an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used to project changes in Climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100.Abstract:
Invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. Climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu (Pueraria lobata), privet (Ligustrum sinense; L. vulgare), and cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica). We define climatic habitat using both the Maxent and Mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best ‘constrain’ species distributions and variables that ‘release’ the most land area if excluded. We then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. The combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. Current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the Gulf Coast. Climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. Risk from privet and kudzu expands north into Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states by 2100. Risk from cogongrass expands as far north as Kentucky and Virginia. Heightened surveillance and prompt eradication of small pockets of invasion in northern states should be a management priority.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Scientists' warning on invasive alien species.
Petr Pyšek,Petr Pyšek,Petr Pyšek,Philip E. Hulme,Daniel Simberloff,Sven Bacher,Tim M. Blackburn,Tim M. Blackburn,Tim M. Blackburn,James T. Carlton,Wayne Dawson,Franz Essl,Franz Essl,Llewellyn C. Foxcroft,Llewellyn C. Foxcroft,Piero Genovesi,Piero Genovesi,Jonathan M. Jeschke,Jonathan M. Jeschke,Ingolf Kühn,Ingolf Kühn,Andrew M. Liebhold,Andrew M. Liebhold,Nicholas E. Mandrak,Laura A. Meyerson,Aníbal Pauchard,Jan Pergl,Helen E. Roy,Hanno Seebens,Mark van Kleunen,Mark van Kleunen,Montserrat Vilà,Montserrat Vilà,Michael J. Wingfield,David M. Richardson +34 more
TL;DR: Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods, as synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predicting plant invasions in an era of global change
TL;DR: Current knowledge about relationships between plant invasion and global change is reviewed, research needed to improve forecasts of invasion risk is highlighted, and managers should be prepared for both expansion and contraction of invasive plants due to global change.
Climate Change Impacts in the United States
TL;DR: The report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts in the United States, now and in the future as discussed by the authors, and concludes that climate change is a major threat to the US.
Journal ArticleDOI
Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance.
Cascade J. B. Sorte,Inés Ibáñez,Dana M. Blumenthal,Nicole A. Molinari,Luke P. Miller,Edwin D. Grosholz,Jeffrey M. Diez,Carla M. D'Antonio,Julian D. Olden,Sierra J. Jones,Jeffrey S. Dukes +10 more
TL;DR: A meta-analytical approach is taken to broadly evaluate whether non-native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change
Luciana L. Porfirio,Rebecca M. B. Harris,Edward C. Lefroy,Sonia Hugh,Susan F. Gould,G Lee,Nathaniel L. Bindoff,Brendan Mackey +7 more
TL;DR: The effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly) and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine).
References
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