Journal ArticleDOI
European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.
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Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years.Abstract:
Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by ∼0.5°C (0.25°C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.read more
Citations
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Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of regional climate change on human health
TL;DR: The growing evidence that climate–health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change is reviewed and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Michael E. Mann,Zhihua Zhang,Scott Rutherford,Raymond S. Bradley,Malcolm K. Hughes,Drew Shindell,Caspar M. Ammann,Greg Faluvegi,Fenbiao Ni +8 more
TL;DR: The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally, and the Little Ice Age is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Journal ArticleDOI
A decade of weather extremes
Dim Coumou,Stefan Rahmstorf +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the evidence so far, it is argued that certain events or an increase in their frequency can be linked with confidence to the human influence on climate.
Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report
Sonia I. Seneviratne,Neville Nicholls,David R. Easterling,Clare Goodess,Shinjiro Kanae,James P. Kossin,Yiming Luo,José A. Marengo,Kathleen L. McInnes,Mohammad Rahimi,Markus Reichstein,Asgeir Sorteberg,Carolina Vera,X. Zhang +13 more
References
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OtherDOI
Generalized Additive Models
Trevor Hastie,Robert Tibshirani +1 more
TL;DR: The generalized additive model (GA) as discussed by the authors is a generalization of the generalized linear model, which replaces the linear model with a sum of smooth functions in an iterative procedure called local scoring algorithm.
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Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
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The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Christoph Schär,Pier Luigi Vidale,Daniel Lüthi,Christoph Frei,Christian Häberli,Mark A. Liniger,Christof Appenzeller +6 more
TL;DR: It is found that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account, and it is proposed that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003.
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Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate
Mark New,Mike Hulme,Phil Jones +2 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the construction of a 0.58-latent-long gridded dataset of monthly terrestrial surface climate for the period of 1901-96, which consists of seven climate elements: precipitation, mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, wet-day frequency, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and ground frost frequency.
Journal ArticleDOI
Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years
TL;DR: A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.