Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models
José A. Marengo,Tércio Ambrizzi,Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha,Lincoln M. Alves,Santiago Vianna Cuadra,María Cleofé Valverde,Roger Rodrigues Torres,Daniel C. Santos,Simone Erotildes Teleginski Ferraz +8 more
TLDR
In this paper, three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the Had- AM3P global model.Abstract:
Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgio- nalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the Had- AM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and pro- jections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071- 2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during sum- mer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of North- east Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5N-15S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4C and in winter between 3 and 5C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circula- tion from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru- Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and south- eastern Brazil.read more
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Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts
TL;DR: A review of recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods, is presented in this paper, where the authors assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades.
Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts
TL;DR: A review of recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods, is presented in this article, where the authors assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent developments on the South American monsoon system
José A. Marengo,Brant Liebmann,Alice M. Grimm,Vasubandhu Misra,P. L. Silva Dias,Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti,Leila M. V. Carvalho,Ernesto Hugo Berbery,Tércio Ambrizzi,Carolina Vera,A. C. Saulo,Julia Nogués-Paegle,Edward J. Zipser,Anji Seth,Lincoln M. Alves +14 more
TL;DR: Marengo et al. as discussed by the authors proposed Marengo, J. A., Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Journal ArticleDOI
The hydrology of the humid tropics
Ellen Wohl,Ana P. Barros,Nathaniel A. Brunsell,Nick A. Chappell,Michael T. Coe,Thomas W. Giambelluca,Steven T. Goldsmith,Russell S. Harmon,Jan M. H. Hendrickx,James O. Juvik,Jeffrey J. McDonnell,Fred L. Ogden +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, it is argued that understanding of the key hydrological interactions in the humid tropics remains limited, and a vision of future research designed to address these shortcomings is outlined.
Journal ArticleDOI
Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins
José A. Marengo,Sin Chan Chou,Gillian Kay,Lincoln M. Alves,José Pesquero,Wagner R. Soares,Daniel C. Santos,André Lyra,Gustavo Sueiro,Richard Betts,Diego Chagas,Jorge Gomes,Josiane F. Bustamante,Priscila Tavares +13 more
TL;DR: The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes.
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